SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If the GFS consistently starts going lower I would worry but the 18z RGEM looks great and the GFS has been waffling on QPF the last 4 runs though it's looked good at the upper levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If the GFS consistently starts going lower I would worry but the 18z RGEM looks great and the GFS has been waffling on QPF the last 4 runs though it's looked good at the upper levels but the RGEM sucked the big one with Thursdays storm but not sure how that would factor in to this storm however... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If the GFS consistently starts going lower I would worry but the 18z RGEM looks great and the GFS has been waffling on QPF the last 4 runs though it's looked good at the upper levels RGEM goin neg in the Midwest at 48 already ? I didn't see that's what I heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RGEM goin neg in the Midwest at 48 already ? I didn't see that's what I heard It goes through 54 this run it's very strong but with the high in place and a semi 50-50 feature it will be forced south of us in that setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It goes through 54 this run it's very strong but with the high in place and a semi 50-50 feature it will be forced south of us in that setup Would think without a block it woul more likely just run at the high and the high would give some ground ala euro Just really surprised to see the euro .75 3 days out in the northern branch. 1 st time all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol why would you look at weather.com? I looked at weather.com http://www.weather.com/weather/5-day/East+Brunswick+NJ+USNJ0125:1:US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol why would you look at weather.com? They came down to 40/26 for Tuesday with showers for east brunswick. A lot of people use weather.com though I tend to look elsewhere due to its inaccuracy at times. It's funny because I know how things will transpire going on this forum way before others do since they rely on weather apps or tv/news data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol why would you look at weather.com? Lmao... TWC's computer generated forecasts are laughable at best... According them I was getting 6-10" Thursday and i got 19" and 1-2 today and I've received over 5".. They're the worst! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Would think without a block it woul more likely just run at the high and the high would give some ground ala euro Just really surprised to see the euro .75 3 days out in the northern branch. 1 st time all year. Maybe the brief +EPO is allowing the PACJET to cut underneath with more moisture instead of drier clippers dropping down from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Maybe the brief +EPO is allowing the PACJET to cut underneath with more moisture instead of drier clippers dropping down from Canada. ecmwfUS_200_spd_072.gif f24.gif Yeh. The ggem Jma euro are all in the .7 region. 850s are cold the gfs backed away so Wana make sure the euro and ggem still there tonite. Then ur just 2 days out. That may have just sprung up on us quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 so what are we thinking? Mt Holly NWS is blowing noise of a significant event north of i 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 so what are we thinking? Mt Holly NWS is blowing noise of a significant event north of i 78. I would say 6-8 for the Immediate NYC metro area.. And 3-6 for those o us in the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I would say 6-8 for the Immediate NYC metro area.. And 3-6 for those o us in the NW burbs That seems quite high and the models could easily shift tonight so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 That seems quite high and the models could easily shift tonight so we'll see. The Euro, GGEM show generally .70 Qpf area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The SREFs seem to be indicating the south of NYC jackpot to an extent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The SREFs seem to be indicating the south of NYC jackpot to an extent Looks like they show snow to rain and about .25 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The SREFs seem to be indicating the south of NYC jackpot to an extent I think the Philly area will do well with this storm, much better than us atleast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The srefs show us struggling with surface temperatures yet again. 850s start good but this event is going to the be the final one before a warmer regime sets in. Right now it appears to me a general 1 to 3 inch event with more n and w as they have less of an issue with surface temperatures and what I would expect to be a much more aggressive mid level warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the Philly area will do well with this storm, much better than us atleastwe're likely snow to rain down here attm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's too early to use the long range sref mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's too early to use the long range sref mean 60 to 66 hours while not in its great range is certainly not completely useless especially when identifying trends. It was designed to go out to that range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The srefs show us struggling with surface temperatures yet again. 850s start good but this event is going to the be the final one before a warmer regime sets in. Right now it appears to me a general 1 to 3 inch event with more n and w as they have less of an issue with surface temperatures and what I would expect to be a much more aggressive mid level warming. Perfect analysis of this event and I fully agree. Would not expect more than a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GFS and nam are about 30/17 when the snow would start given the time it comes in if it thumps hard I think we do way better than today since the solar factor is less if it arrives late night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GFS and nam are about 30/17 when the snow would start given the time it comes in if it thumps hard I think we do way better than today since the solar factor is less if it arrives late nightTrue. .. But appears as though it warms relatively quickly and we do get into solar influence throughout the morning (as timed now) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=069ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_069_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=10m_wnd_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M My issue is the se winds that are likely to be pretty gusty around the back side of the departing high. To me there is no mechanism for cold air but every signal for warming temps. It should have to thump hard then shut off imo. That was a major problem earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Perfect analysis of this event and I fully agree. Would not expect more than a couple inches. It's hard to ignore the euro/GGEM showing virtually the exact same storm... Not to mention both models nailed Thursdays and today's storm days in advanced... And the GGEM was even precise enough to catch the snow sleet line extending all the way into Albany on Thursdays storm which no one thought would happen... Using the srefs now is acceptable to catch trends but certainly not to base a forecast for snow totals 50+ hrs out of event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's hard to ignore the euro/GGEM showing virtually the exact same storm... Not to mention both models nailed Thursdays and today's storm days in advanced... And the GGEM was even precise enough to catch the snow sleet line extending all the way into Albany on Thursdays storm which no one thought would happen... Using the srefs now is acceptable to catch trends but certainly not to base a forecast for snow totals 50+ hrs out of event My forecast was not based on the srefs for what its worth. And yes its hard to ignore them but for right now I can't say I'm thrilled with this setup either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The srefs show us struggling with surface temperatures yet again. 850s start good but this event is going to the be the final one before a warmer regime sets in. Right now it appears to me a general 1 to 3 inch event with more n and w as they have less of an issue with surface temperatures and what I would expect to be a much more aggressive mid level warming. Eeech I like 3 to 6 . I think the slp runs at the high. 8 like the 850 s and rates. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 My forecast was not based on the srefs for what its worth. And yes its hard to ignore them but for right now I can't say I'm thrilled with this setup either. I would agree.. Another red flag for me is the GFS not being impressed at all with this storm while the GFS has done well with northern stream events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Eeech I like 3 to 6 . I think the slp runs at the high. 8 like the 850 s and rates. IMO I should specify 1 to 3 for i95 corridor with more to the n and w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's hard to ignore the euro/GGEM showing virtually the exact same storm... Not to mention both models nailed Thursdays and today's storm days in advanced... And the GGEM was even precise enough to catch the snow sleet line extending all the way into Albany on Thursdays storm which no one thought would happen... Using the srefs now is acceptable to catch trends but certainly not to base a forecast for snow totals 50+ hrs out of event Interesting how now everybody is in love with the Euro again when it was essentially a mess with previous northern stream systems and the gfs killed the Euro with them. If this was another southern stream system then I would choose the Euro for sure, but I gotta go with the gfs on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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