Mitchel Volk Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 I just went for T-2" at the coast and 2"-4" for the city. There is a decent heavy band in PA and the trend for the RAP models does show some stronger 700Mb VV's for a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yup and that banding was certainly producing out in the Midwest earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I just went for T-2" at the coast and 2"-4" for the city. There is a decent heavy band in PA and the trend for the RAP models does show some stronger 700Mb VV's for a couple of hours.latest HRRR 02 run bumps most to 1 - 2" now. Last run had verga to a half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 My initial 1-2" idea looks better all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 My initial 1-2" idea looks better all the time. T-2" looks perfect for our area JM. 1-2" is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 latest HRRR 02 run bumps most to 1 - 2" now. Last run had verga to a half inch. fwiw, the projected 5z radar from the HRRR looks way better than reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 And I found the comment critical of others' thoughts on the situation, made 10-12 hours later after things had played out differently than modeled at the time to have a faint whiff of hubris. If you think my benign comment was "obnoxious" and "dumb," take a cue from the snow pack and get thicker.Uncalled for and quite frankly kills any point you may have. When you have a point, take the time to express yourself and explain your thinking; because when you express yourself by belitting others, it normally means that you don't have a strong point and need to use personal attacks in an attempt to solidify yours. Furthermore you're talking to a professional who has been pointing out throughout the day why this will not be a warning event. That's the difference between a meteorologist and someone who strictly relies on computer forecasting equipment. One last thing, meteorologists need a bachelor's of science for a reason. They have to study physics, chemistry and more. The reason they need this education is for what just happened here. Some people went Gung ho on several forecasting models which depicted a rather significant winter weather event. The meteorologist you called out, explained why the event would not happen like the various models portrayed it to. In other words, he took his education, evaluated the model, said why it was incorrect and then proceeded to share his knowledge with us. Yet you decide to call him out because he's right. Mods: sorry if this is a violation, but this type of blatant disrespect irks me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 fwiw, the projected 5z radar from the HRRR looks way better than reality. As it should, its a composite radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hearing that band is doing work in the DC area. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hearing that band is doing work in the DC area. Nice. It should be interesting to see accums from that band as that should reasonably extrapolate to what we can expect here perhaps a hair more here as models are showing some decent lift as it begins to butt up against the mid level Ridge. But this is definitely the main band that should swing thru here so let's pay attention to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 It should be interesting to see accums from that band as that should reasonably extrapolate to what we can expect here perhaps a hair more here as models are showing some decent lift as it begins to butt up against the mid level Ridge. But this is definitely the main band that should swing thru here so let's pay attention to that. Its doing exceptionally well progressing on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Its doing exceptionally well progressing on radar. Cpa seems to be doing pretty well. .. On track for 2 to 3 inches there. It's a very quick hitting Wall of snow it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Cpa seems to be doing pretty well. .. On track for 2 to 3 inches there. It's a very quick hitting Wall of snow it appears. The reports are going nuts out of that area. Multiple reports of thundersnow. The Mid-Atl forum had someone say they got about 3" in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The reports are going nuts out of that area. Multiple reports of thundersnow. The Mid-Atl forum had someone say they got about 3" in 20 minutes. Yup the dynamics with the band are great. Very quick but very heavy snow on its way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 As a side note : im passing Upton and the temp is 14°. It will be interesting to see how the boundary layer progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The reports are going nuts out of that area. Multiple reports of thundersnow. The Mid-Atl forum had someone say they got about 3" in 20 minutes.9"/hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 As it should, its a composite radar. i'm sorry. you're right. the 1k reflectivity is close to reality. it shows it going ragged before pulling together just in time to give us some accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 9"/hr? Holy crap I didn't even catch that lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Holy crap I didn't even catch that lol...Ha, it made me do a double take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 i'm sorry. you're right. the 1k reflectivity is close to reality. it shows it going ragged before pulling together just in time to give us some accumulating snow.it's all good, this looks great if it holds or gets better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 This band may not look impressive on radar, but it packs a punch! You guys should pick up a quick 1-2" with some gusty winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mt. Holly's forecasts have been dead on this winter, so I'm not going to dispute their 3-5" call, which looks surprisingly possible given the radar. It's going to be another ugly morning commute it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I'm in Arlington. Snow is coming down but not sticking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Station on the PA/MD border KRYT 180531Z AUTO 02003KT 1/2SM TSSN VV005 M03/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 TSB12SNB0454 P0013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Latest HRRR continues to expand the 1-2" areal coverage and if you love on Connecticut, congrats - again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Station on the PA/MD border KRYT 180531Z AUTO 02003KT 1/2SM TSSN VV005 M03/M07 A3013 RMK AO2 TSB12SNB0454 P0013 awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Holy crap I didn't even catch that lol... Unlikely but possible. It would need to be truy convective. I have seen an insane sleet thunderstorm in jan 2010 that was easily 1-2" and hour liquid equivant. I'm excited to see this play out as this winter delivers another interesting event. 2" looks good here. The fantastic radiational cooling earlier help really drop ground temps which will aid in sticking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mt. Holly's forecasts have been dead on this winter, so I'm not going to dispute their 3-5" call, which looks surprisingly possible given the radar. It's going to be another ugly morning commute it seems. their point and click now has only 2" max. it certainly was 3-5" earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mount holly THE MAIN SNOW BAND IS CROSSING CENTRAL PA NOW. BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS...IT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS SNOW BAND WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...MEANING MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE DONE WELL BEFORE THE RUSH HOUR. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS ALREADY WARMER THAN -8 C AND CONTINUING TO WARM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALREADY OCCLUDING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ONCE THE BAND GOES THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...SHOWING LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT IS GENERALLY NE OF OUR REGION. STILL...2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE BAND. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASINGLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY HEAVY SNOW...BUT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL REEVALUATE AFTER THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Near term to 6am THE MAIN SNOW BAND IS CROSSING CENTRAL PA NOW. BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS...IT SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITHIN THE HOUR. THIS SNOW BAND WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS...MEANING MOST OF THE HEAVY SNOW SHOULD BE DONE WELL BEFORE THE RUSH HOUR. THERE ARE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN BAND...BUT WITH CLOUD TOPS ALREADY WARMER THAN -8 C AND CONTINUING TO WARM...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ALREADY OCCLUDING...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ONCE THE BAND GOES THROUGH. THIS IS ALSO IN LINE WITH THE HRRR...SHOWING LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL THE MAIN AREA OF LIFT IS GENERALLY NE OF OUR REGION. STILL...2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE UNDER THE BAND. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INCREASINGLY BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ANY HEAVY SNOW...BUT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STILL LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. WILL REEVALUATE AFTER THE SNOW BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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