Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say lock it. 6-9" Just NW of NYC from NE NJ on NW including the rest of Northern NJ and LHV Good luck with that call. 3-6" at best. 3-5" is more reasonable. The 4k NAM verbatim won't verify, it's an outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z gfs text output is good critical thickness wise for Long Island, but the 925-1000 hpa layer is warm (hr.27-hr 30) leading to an eventual mix. kfrg:(Nassau) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kfrg.txt kisp:(Suffolk- central) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kisp.txt kmtp:(Suffolk- east end) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kmtp.txt 12z GFS bukfit has very little snow accumulation for LGA,JFK,ISP 0.5" or less using max temp in profile. I think it's too low though.There will more evaporative cooling at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Good luck with that call. 3-6" at best. 3-5" is more reasonable. The 4k NAM verbatim won't verify, it's an outlier at this point. The 4k only? Do your research buddy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Central Park will measure 6". This will be a 3-4 hour thump of 1-3"/hr rates. Morning rush is going to be a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I still think this is going to be nowcasting event regarding totals in any specific area of the metro since this is such a fragile dynamic setup - amount of precip and temp profiles etc etc which are very tricky in these situations - will definetly be a few surprises along the way It's gonna be the case of whoever is further east and more urban areas with boundary layer issues will need heavier precip to snow and especially accumulate snow. The further nw areas will likely fare well with this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This will probably be like December 05 although the immediate coast will probably do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 December 9, 05? If so, that's what I thought of as well... At least in the metro. Not in New England... This will probably be like December 05 although the immediate coast will probably do better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Good luck with that call. 3-6" at best. 3-5" is more reasonable. The 4k NAM verbatim won't verify, it's an outlier at this point.hpc disco says discard the nam fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
odwalla Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This will probably be like December 05 although the immediate coast will probably do better February '07 might also be a good comparison -- don't remember the specific date, but it was a quick and unanticipated thump of ~6" for much of I-95. This event looks to be more localized, with the potential for a narrow stripe of 10" totals somewhere over the NYC region. In our 'new' climate, the potential for convective snows is often under-estimated, and we have seen several situations like this one in recent years. The commute is going to be a disaster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 hpc disco says discard the nam fwiw IMO nam is too amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 How about 2/22/08? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The Euro looks a bit wetter, but still low numbers compared to the hi-res models. General 1/4" to 1/3" QPF for most. I know folks are banking on the northern stream/southern stream verification scores thing, but with the Euro not going bananas, I'm thinking this isn't going to be a memorable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The Euro looks a bit wetter, but still low numbers compared to the hi-res models. General 1/4" to 1/3" QPF for most. I know folks are banking on the northern stream/southern stream verification scores thing, but with the Euro not going bananas, I'm thinking this isn't going to be a memorable event. Euro hasn't done well with a single northern stream storm tho so I would be cautious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As of now, especially for Long Island South Shore residents..What is you estimated snow depth remaining? At least tomorrow might add to it before it begins to subtract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yea boundary layer issues look inevitable there. Yeah it's going to be hard to overcome the boundary layer issue even with heavy precipitation rates. I think now all of Long Island will have mixing issues, and not just the eastern end like I thought earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 How about 2/22/08? http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2008/22-Feb-08.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 February '07 might also be a good comparison -- don't remember the specific date, but it was a quick and unanticipated thump of ~6" for much of I-95. This event looks to be more localized, with the potential for a narrow stripe of 10" totals somewhere over the NYC region. In our 'new' climate, the potential for convective snows is often under-estimated, and we have seen several situations like this one in recent years. The commute is going to be a disaster... 2/08..3-6" was forecast.. Most places did a bit better before turning to drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As of now, especially for Long Island South Shore residents..What is you estimated snow depth remaining? At least tomorrow might add to it before it begins to subtract. Worry about ur snow cover by Friday afternoon after 3 mornings of FOG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 WPC and where they think that 4 inches will fall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah I meant northern Nassau and NW Suffolk also. The dividing line might be the Southern State Parkway, maybe even Sunrise Highway. That's where it essentially was last storm and could be this time.Lovely. I tend to agree based on the trends this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As of now, especially for Long Island South Shore residents..What is you estimated snow At least tomorrow might add to it before it begins to subtract. About a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 srefs anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 srefs anyone? Most of NJ is at or above 0.25". There's a small area covering northeast NJ out to western Long Island and then southwestern Fairfield County and southern Westchester County at 0.50". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seems to have cut back a bit from the morning run. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 MT holly going 3-6 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014NJZ001-007>010-012-013-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-103>106-180700-/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0012.140218T0800Z-140218T1800Z/SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN240 PM EST MON FEB 17 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM ESTTUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, THE POCONOS, LEHIGHVALLEY, BERKS COUNTY AND THE NORTHERN PHILADELPHIA SUBURBS FORSNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SNOW SHOULD COME IN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AND FALL MODERATETO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW SHOULDEND CLOSE TO NOON ON TUESDAY.* IMPACTS...ONE INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO OCCURDURING THE MORNING COMMUTE. THIS WILL MAKE DRIVING AND PLOWINGDIFFICULT. THE ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL CAUSE MORE STRAIN ONWEAKENED STRUCTURES INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR COLLAPSES. ISOLATEDPOWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WHILE ITSSNOWING, RISING ABOVE FREEZING LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY, EXCEPTIN THE POCONOS.* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN HALF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That's a little surprising, I was thinking 1-3" but it does include a fairly large area so I'm assuming the southern areas will be closer to 3" while the northern areas will be closer to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That's a little surprising, I was thinking 1-3" but it does include a fairly large area so I'm assuming the southern areas will be closer to 3" while the northern areas will be closer to 6". Maps have 2-4 for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nam not closed off like it was in the 12z run - Southeastern part of the vort is also weaker. This will prob come in slightly more reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Surface looks a bit warmer this run with less of the heavy precip over nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM does not close off at H5 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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