NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't see that as a problem at all. Upto 156 dm thickness for that layer is usually fine for snow in our region. The devil is usually in the details at specific levels, but other things being equal, averaged across the 700-850 layer that partial thickness is usually snow in our area and not even close to borderline. I've never understood the color coding for that partial thickness as it is very misleading. To Illustrate this, compare the 850-700 thickness from today's 12z NAM at 15z tomorrow to the NAM forecast soundings for KNYC at that same hour. Well below OC throughout that layer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I just don't get the synoptic setup on the NAM. Serious 500mb ridging ahead of the advancing low, thermal wind/thicknesses running WSW to ENE, yet it wants to transfer to the coastal SE to the Delmarva Peninsula? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z ARW has .50-.75 for Northeastern NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like a true thump. In and out in about six or seven hours total with heavy wet snowfall in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NMM has .60-1.20 across Northern New Jersey from west to east with a max of 1.57 over Western Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nmm always seems to be wet but seeing the arw .50+ is encouraging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12 GGEM redevelops the coastal just off Long Island gives pretty good snows to areas just NW of NYC. Rain snow line stops at southern Rockland county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NMM has over 1.00QPF for NYC 12z ARW has 0ver 0.75 QPF for NYC How reliable are those models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12 GGEM redevelops the coastal just off Long Island gives pretty good snows to areas just NW of NYC. Rain snow line stops at southern Rockland county Sounds similar to NAM, how does the QPF look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 nmm always seems to be wet but seeing the arw .50+ is encouraging Geez! NMM really wet. ARW showing .50-.70 is encouraging as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When aren't the nmm & arw really wet? Cut them in Half and it's somewhat realistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When aren't the nmm & arw really wet? Cut them in Half and it's somewhat realistic NMM is always wet. ARW is really reliable but not always wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Being in SW suffolk county this is pretty much a 1" slop fest and more towards northern LI and into the HV, NYC and NJ areas. Looks like my next shot is a storm threat next week after the torch this week on our snowpack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Advisories up in E/C PA and WS Watches went up near ORH in MA. Suspect to see advisories up fairly soon for most of the area from 95 N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When aren't the nmm & arw really wet? Cut them in Half and it's somewhat realistic Don't be so sure.. GGEM in my opinion has been the most underrated medium/shortrange model of the year.. Did near perfect with the big storm last Thursday as well as this Saturdays storm and is showing between .50 and .75 area wide. However only north and west burbs stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Sounds similar to NAM, how does the QPF look? .50-.75 depending on exact location.. Rain/snow lines extends up to Rockland but only at the tail end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When aren't the nmm & arw really wet? Cut them in Half and it's somewhat realistic nmm yes but arw is not always overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z GGEM QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mount Holly's snow map still shows 1 to 2 inches. Hopefully they'll be updating that soon because it's ridiculous. Upton has 1-2" for southern zones as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If that hour 24 12Z GGEM verifies some heavy precip would come in before dawn. Could that help coastal NJ or is the issue really the lower layer warmer air no matter the time? We've seen one snowfall on the back of a SW flow this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0z Euro for Andover, NJ .15 12z Euro for Andover, NJ .26 12z Euro for Caldwell, NJ .32 Morristown .30 NYC .36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z gfs text output is good critical thickness wise for Long Island, but the 925-1000 hpa layer is warm (hr.27-hr 30) leading to an eventual mix. kfrg:(Nassau) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kfrg.txt kisp:(Suffolk- central) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kisp.txt kmtp:(Suffolk- east end) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kmtp.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Seems like the global models (GFS/EURO) are playing catch-up with the shorter term models and are getting wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Euro seems wetter.. not there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 there is a thread for vendor forecasts - last week I had a post deleted here just for mentioning a specific tv met If this gets deleted, so be it... but that looks like an excellent forecast, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say lock it. 6-9" Just NW of NYC from NE NJ on NW including the rest of Northern NJ and LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z gfs text output is good critical thickness wise for Long Island, but the 925-1000 hpa layer is warm (hr.27-hr 30) leading to an eventual mix. kfrg:(Nassau) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kfrg.txt kisp:(Suffolk- central) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kisp.txt kmtp:(Suffolk- east end) http://68.226.77.253/text/GFS/GFS_kmtp.txt Yea boundary layer issues look inevitable there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say lock it. 6-9" Just NW of NYC from NE NJ on NW including the rest of Northern NJ and LHV I still think this is going to be nowcasting event regarding totals in any specific area of the metro since this is such a fragile dynamic setup - amount of precip and temp profiles etc etc which are very tricky in these situations - will definetly be a few surprises along the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say lock it. 6-9" Just NW of NYC from NE NJ on NW including the rest of Northern NJ and LHV I like those numbers except divide them by 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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