Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 From Americanwx maps. The 12z RGEM has 3-5" of snow for NYC, NE NJ, and Western LI, away from the south shore. Up to 6" in a narrow band from Staten Island on SW down the I-95 corridor to Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 is the GFS delayed? no PBP today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 GFS has 0.25"+ for the area but not robust like the NAM. It is getting wetter though over the last few runs so it is playing catchup. South Shore looks to be cold from 950mb and up, NYC looks cold enough and coastal NJ looks cold enough from maybe 900-925mb on down (almost certainly rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 is the GFS delayed? no PBP today? It's cold for NYC N and W. 2m temps/950 are warm for coastal areas on gfs. Snow to mix. All snow N and W. Much less precipitation than nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The trend this morning has been Wetter and colder. And I assume WSW with 6 plus go up from mercer all the way up in the LHV for everyone west of 95 and 2 to 4 for most others with the exception of Ocean Counties the 12z suite has bought the deeper slp and evaporative cooling Given we still don't have model consensus on 6" or more for Mercer to Lehigh Valley and for interior north/central NJ, I'd be surprised if the NWS went to more than advisories (except maybe Poconos/Sussex/Orange/Putnam). I think they'll be confident in 3" amounts verifying, but not 6" amounts, plus they don't tend to jump on model trends, but rather adjust, so I'd predict advisories go up soon, which can always be upgraded to warnings tonight if the cold/snowy trend continues with the 0Z models. Next question, as usual, is how far to the S/E do the advisories go, i.e, just to I-95 and points N/W of there or will they include Monmouth, NW Burlington, Ocean, etc. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Given we still don't have model consensus on 6" or more for Mercer to Lehigh Valley and for interior north/central NJ, I'd be surprised if the NWS went to more than advisories (except maybe Poconos/Sussex/Orange/Putnam). I think they'll be confident in 3" amounts verifying, but not 6" amounts, plus they don't tend to jump on model trends, but rather adjust, so I'd predict advisories go up soon, which can always be upgraded to warnings tonight if the cold/snowy trend continues with the 0Z models. Next question, as usual, is how far to the S/E do the advisories go, i.e, just to I-95 and points N/W of there or will they include Monmouth, NW Burlington, Ocean, etc. Just my two cents. Looks like high end advisory for most areas, except for the coastal sections of counties like Monmouth/Ocean. Same further north, Upton will likely issue advisories for all except southern Queens, Nassau, and eastern Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Looks like high end advisory for most areas, except for the coastal sections of counties like Monmouth/Ocean. Same further north, Upton will likely issue advisories for all except southern Queens, Nassau, and eastern Suffolk. I don't think northern Nassau will be left out of the advisory if and when they issue one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 everyone seems to be forgetting how dry the euro is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 everyone seems to be forgetting how dry the euro is True, but the ensembles are wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 everyone seems to be forgetting how dry the euro is When in doubt trust the King. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I don't think northern Nassau will be left out of the advisory if and when they issue one. Yeah I meant northern Nassau and NW Suffolk also. The dividing line might be the Southern State Parkway, maybe even Sunrise Highway. That's where it essentially was last storm and could be this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When in doubt trust the King. Not wise if its all alone and every other model is wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The trend this morning has been Wetter and colder. And I assume WSW with 6 plus go up from mercer all the way up in the LHV for everyone west of 95 and 2 to 4 for most others with the exception of Ocean Counties the 12z suite has bought the deeper slp and evaporative coolingWSW I assume means going straight to winter storm warnings and skipping the watch - whens the last time that happened ? I wouldn't believe it was even possible except in this particular winter - if NYC somehow manages to get to 60 inches seasonal after this storm the record 95 - 96 of 75.6 inches is on the radar screen and possible IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 When in doubt trust the King. Not in a northern stream situation. It's also funny how the Euro was originally the wettest model of the bunch with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yeah I meant northern Nassau and NW Suffolk also. The dividing line might be the Southern State Parkway, maybe even Sunrise Highway. That's where it essentially was last storm and could be this time. I'm literally a few hundred yards off the Southern State, and maybe 1.6 miles away from Sunrise HGWY, Usually the LIE is the line of demarcation with South to North events over Long Island. However, we'll see. I might ride the storm out at my upstate house as there is a solid 30+ inch base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 True, but the ensembles are wetter The EURO ensembles are only slightly wetter, showing .20-.25 throughout Northern New Jersey, nothing like the NAM. Not saying it is right or wrong, just it is not that much wetter than the operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not in a northern stream situation. It's also funny how the Euro was originally the wettest model of the bunch with this. This is true. The American models do tend to do better with the Northern Stream Systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hasnt the Rgem been nailing these storms ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 After looking at the 12z data (gfs/nam). I think it's safe to put Long Island in the 1-3 inch range with a change to a mix after 16z. 3 inches would be confined to areas on the north shore with the eastern end seeing less accumulations maybe an inch. I think the NAM is a little too amped, and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 388 FXUS61 KPHI 171549 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1049 AM EST MON FEB 17 2014 SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/ 1048 AM NOTE: WE ARE AWARE OF THE ROBUST 12Z/17 NAM AND RGEM MODELS AND THE LESSER BUT STILL MORE ROBUST 12Z GFS WHEN COMPARED TO THE 06Z VSN...ALL THIS FOR THE NJT AND I95 REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND EVALUATING TOGETHER WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND THE NCEP. NO CHANGES IN THE FCST AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 After looking at the 12z data (gfs/nam). I think it's safe to put Long Island in the 1-3 inch range with a change to a mix after 16z. 3 inches would be confined to areas on the north shore with the eastern end seeing less accumulations maybe an inch.At this pont, any ideas what it looks like for NE Sussex Co. In NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Given we still don't have model consensus on 6" or more for Mercer to Lehigh Valley and for interior north/central NJ, I'd be surprised if the NWS went to more than advisories (except maybe Poconos/Sussex/Orange/Putnam). I think they'll be confident in 3" amounts verifying, but not 6" amounts, plus they don't tend to jump on model trends, but rather adjust, so I'd predict advisories go up soon, which can always be upgraded to warnings tonight if the cold/snowy trend continues with the 0Z models. Next question, as usual, is how far to the S/E do the advisories go, i.e, just to I-95 and points N/W of there or will they include Monmouth, NW Burlington, Ocean, etc. Just my two cents. The way I see it is we have pretty good consensus of .5 plus. NAM GGEM JMA SREF RGEM for me the issue will resolving the mid levels east of I95 Would like to have the Euros physics here but its been weak all year out of the northern branch. I agree w NAO. We go right to a warning west of the tpke for nothing more than the rates out west are high and ths comes during the morning rush. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 At this pont, any ideas what it looks like for NE Sussex Co. In NJ? Northwest NJ looks to receive 2-4 inches. Around freezing when precipitation is falling. You warm above freezing after precipitation moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Northeast NJ looks to receive 2-4 inches. Around freezing for the entire event.Thanks. But Im in NW NJ Sussex Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_027_850_700_thick.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= At 27 when the height of the precip is in nyc Metro. I don't see that as a problem at all. Upto 156 dm thickness for that layer is usually fine for snow in our region. The devil is usually in the details at specific levels, but other things being equal, averaged across the 700-850 layer that partial thickness is usually snow in our area and not even close to borderline. I've never understood the color coding for that partial thickness as it is very misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Thanks. But Im in NW NJ Sussex Co. Meant to put NW sorry. The NE threw me off lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Meant to put NW sorry. The NE threw me off lol. Gotcha. I figured that! Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NMM is a big hit. Looks like .50-1.00 for N NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NMM has over 1.00QPF for NYC 12z ARW has 0ver 0.75 QPF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This model might be the RPM, but Im not sure: http://www.abc27.com/category/229983/precisioncast-future-radar-next-24-hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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