Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12km NAM Bufkit shows 5.0" of snow for LGA before flipping over to rain between 15z and 16z Tue. Cobb11 has 6.5" JFK 4.5" of snow before flipping to rain between 15z and 16z also. Cobb11 6.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I wrote this morning. Seeing the micro climate here at work my entire life you will see 1 to 2 inches from Asbury through Atlantic highlands to jfk long beach ( sorry Jim ) all the way out to Suffolk County and then flip to rain. But once to western Monmouth up through westerm staten island n nyc into LGA and onto the North shore of Nassau County u get 4 to 6 And then in nwnj once N of 80 west of the tpke it's likely 6 to 8. The line tomrrw between heavy rain and heavy snow will b a short drive. And for some painfully short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC gets to 34.5 degrees on the Nam. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KNYC.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I wrote this morning. Seeing the micro climate here at work my entire life you will see 1 to 2 inches from Asbury through Atlantic highlands to jfk long beach ( sorry Jim ) all the way out to Suffolk County and then flip to rain. But once to western Monmouth up through westerm staten island n nyc into LGA and onto the North shore of Nassau County u get 4 to 6 And then in nwnj once N of 80 west of the tpke it's likely 6 to 8. The line tomrrw between heavy rain and heavy snow will b a short drive. And for some painfully short. Could not agree with this More though I might push things back in nyc Metro just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The fetch from the SE comes from pretty far off the coast though, where temps are warmer. We're going to need some luck to be favorable in this scenario. Right now I think it will be hard to squeeze out more than an inch or two before rain or amongst periods of rain. That said the surface isn't that warm even down by JFK, like 34 or so for much of the precip. So we may just have room for a 33-34 type thumping snow. But it's very questionable. While you're correct on the fetch of warm air from the SE, the colder waters along the immediate coast may help cool down the air further. If this was December, then I'd think rain. But it's February, with very cold SST especially right along the coast, heavy precip rates and cold 850's doesn't scream an all rain event here. Think worst comes to worst, snow to a mix of rain and snow during the heaviest precip and then drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NYC gets to 34.5 degrees on the Nam. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KNYC.txt Hour 30 the precip is over in NYC, but could pop just above freezing as precip is ending for a short time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A lot of people are going to be very angry if we get more than another inch. I'm still going with 1-3" or right along the lines of Mt. Holly's thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Could not agree with this More though I might push things back in nyc Metro just a tad.If you Wana say just over the river I'm there with you.I still think the NS of Nassau pulls off 6. They tend to hold on there in these events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Hmm that's interesting. Wondering why the hires nam is showing a pretty pronounced 850 to 700mb issue for coastal and nyc east areas. I think it's at 27 hours on hi res nam though when the band really swings thru so it's s actually not captured there on txt. At hour 27 though it's still plenty cold on the soundings. Surface only gets to 34. Upper levels are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Really nice hit for NYC but it's really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A lot of people are going to be very angry if we get more than another inch. I'm still going with 1-3" or right along the lines of Mt. Holly's thinking. Bud. This is a big board. 1 to 3 where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 At hour 27 though it's still plenty cold on the soundings. Surface only gets to 34. Upper levels are fine. You are right. From 850 to 700 is 1524m. Just cold enough in that layer. I'm more speaking of nyc Metro though and coastal nj. Would be interested in seeing other soundings from the area as I suspect Frg may differ from other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Really nice hit for NYC but it's really close How much qpf does it have as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You are right. From 850 to 700 is 1524m. Just cold enough in that layer. Shortly after that precipitation shuts off maybe some drizzle. That's when the warming comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Shortly after that precipitation shuts off maybe some drizzle. That's when the warming comes in. What about nyc and coastal nj... As that's who I'm more concerned for anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM is snowier for the third straight run in the NE NJ burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The cutoff in snow totals could be like 12/14/13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The trend this morning has been Wetter and colder. And I assume WSW with 6 plus go up from mercer all the way up in the LHV for everyone west of 95 and 2 to 4 for most others with the exception of Ocean Counties the 12z suite has bought the deeper slp and evaporative cooling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What about nyc and coastal nj... As that's who I'm more concerned for anyway. JFK didn't look terrible, cold to about 950mb for most of the heavy precip. It seems to warm up more as the precip shuts off. NYC looked cold enough at all levels. BLM looked okay to start but warms up very fast such that by 15z it's too warm below 875mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Bud. This is a big board. 1 to 3 where? Similar to where Mt. Holly shows their 1-2" totals but probably 2-4" N&W of I-95 and even more north of I-80 (3-6"). I don't know about the immediate NYC metro as I'm not familiar with the dichotomy of snowfall totals in such a marginal setup with these kinds of events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 RGEM is snowier for the third straight run in the NE NJ burbs. For all of NYC and Nassau as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The trend this morning has been Wetter and colder. And I assume WSW with 6 plus go up from mercer all the way up in the LHV for everyone west of 95 and 2 to 4 for most others with the exception of Ocean Counties the 12z suite has bought the deeper slp and evaporative cooling Pauly, Mt holly never includes W Monmouth as a seperate climate as compared to the coast so I will be very surprised if we are included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Similar to where Mt. Holly shows their 1-2" totals but probably 2-4" N&W of I-95 and even more north of I-80 (3-6"). I don't know about the immediate NYC metro as I'm not familiar with the dichotomy of snowfall totals in such a marginal setup with these kinds of events. Then that's not just 1 to 3 right. I knw we may not get 6. But u hav to b fair when looking at the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For all of NYC and Nassau as well. It actually has more for the boroughs then it does for NENJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Some of those bands in the midwest are producing 4"/hr snows FWIW 0810 AM SNOW 4 W POLK CITY 41.78N 93.80W02/17/2014 E2.0 INCH POLK IA TRAINED SPOTTERHEAVY SNOW AND A LITTLE THUNDER AROUND740AM. SNOW LETTING UP NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Some of those bands in the midwest are producing 4"/hr snows FWIW 0810 AM SNOW 4 W POLK CITY 41.78N 93.80W 02/17/2014 E2.0 INCH POLK IA TRAINED SPOTTER HEAVY SNOW AND A LITTLE THUNDER AROUND 740AM. SNOW LETTING UP NOW. Nice. Unfortunately it's not a continuous system, and most of that energy is going to be transferred to the coast instead of manifested overhead. Chicago winter continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Then that's not just 1 to 3 right. I knw we may not get 6. But u hav to b fair when looking at the entire area. These setups are tough to decipher because of the fragile setup, so it's probably best to go along with what the NWS offices have to say, both Upton and Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Pauly, Mt holly never includes W Monmouth as a seperate climate as compared to the coast so I will be very surprised if we are included. I like 2 to 4 by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What about nyc and coastal nj... As that's who I'm more concerned for anyway. Coastal NJ Belmar, NJ for example has 1526.6 thickness in 850-700mb layer at hr. 27, but it's above freezing from 900 hpa to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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