earthlight Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM is unstable on forecast soundings throughout the area...thunder appears likely if that solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 upton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If these precipitation totals come to pass this could border on a significant event in the burbs (Union, Essex, Bergen and N&W) but I don't see this being significant along the coast or in the metro with the wind direction and boundary layer as modeled. Exactly I've always felt 1 to 3 with more to the n and w where the uvvs will more readily overcome the bl and ewl issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If these precipitation totals come to pass this could border on a significant event in the burbs (Union, Essex, Bergen and N&W) but I don't see this being significant along the coast or in the metro with the wind direction and boundary layer as modeled. It seems the south shore of LI, within 5 miles of the coast in NJ and interests south of C Monmouth county will have issues, but outside those areas I like this for several reasons: 1. Surface highs today will be around 32F, even if it clouds over a worst possible time surface temps upon precip start (4am or so) should be no higher then 32 (and possibly several degrees lower) 2. Upper levels are always cold enough, and not even close 3. As secondary forms actually attempts to pull even colder upper air temps into the system 4. This is such a quick hitting short duration storm, no real time for warm air to get in 5. Intensity should be heavy so not much to be lost to light precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM is unstable on forecast soundings throughout the area...thunder appears likely if that solution verifies. Yes, I noted the 5-7H lapse rates were 7.1 C/km in NYC. I think dividing could be right in middle of NYC and north shore of LI. This is just one intense band on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 have to admit this does look impressive on radar out west http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=default®ion=SHD&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 850 to 700mb thicknesses indicates a pretty significant EWL and the Bl doesn't look much better. .. Still not excited for this one. The Ewl makes sense given that potent flow injecting into that strong mid level Ridge over the area. Exactly I've always felt 1 to 3 with more to the n and w where the uvvs will more readily overcome the bl and ewl issues. EWL really doesn't seem significant. This is hour 30 critical thicknesses when the precipitation is exiting out of the area. Cyan color 850-700 mb thickness stays off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It seems the south shore of LI, within 5 miles of the coast in NJ and interests south of C Monmouth county will have issues, but outside those areas I like this for several reasons: 1. Surface highs today will be around 32F, even if it clouds over a worst possible time surface temps upon precip start (4am or so) should be no higher then 32 (and possibly several degrees lower) 2. Upper levels are always cold enough, and not even close 3. As secondary forms actually attempts to pull even colder upper air temps into the system 4. This is such a quick hitting short duration storm, no real time for warm air to get in 5. Intensity should be heavy so not much to be lost to light precip For the most part I agree except for number 2. The nam is showing unfavorable thicknesses from 850 to 700mb for the most part of enj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Been an amazing season for tracking, prob wont see a similar winter in terms of numerous moderate snowfalls for quite sometime. We still have a month or so of decent opportunities for snow and knowing how this winter has gone...well is it possible NYC beats its all time snow record? Yes. Yes. Somewhat OT: It looks like we get a brief reprieve in the short term, but in the long range, H500 shows we gradually head back into a very amped up and active pattern. By 200 hrs the pacific ridge and polar vortex are back in full-force. Incredible. If the long range verifies close to this, NYC most likely smashes any previous snowfall record. The major caveat being, this IS the long range.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 EWL really doesn't seem significant. This is hour 30 critical thicknesses when the precipitation is exiting out of the area. Cyan color 850-700 mb thickness stays off the coast. Its not significant unless from enj and I the nyc Metro. In fact as the storm comes in the 850 to 700mb thicknesses are pretty unfavorable and will rely on dynamic cooling in enj and Metro nyc to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z Nam HiRES http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= You are showing a snapshot at that hour but the qpf from past 6. This is slightly misleading as you are showing that thickness after the storm has well passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Metfan, if you are going to post models, that's great but please post them in the correct way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For JFK, soundings actually don't look horrible on the NAM for the heaviest precip. It's cold enough down to 950mb or so for snow, which when heavy enough should be able to overcome the surface warmth, which appears to get to maybe 34 during the precip. FRG not bad, either. NYC looks a little colder and should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Metfan, if you are going to post models, that's great but please post them in the correct way. I apologize i'll post a link instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_027_850_700_thick.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=850_700_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize= At 27 when the height of the precip is in nyc Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is a classic 5" at LGA and 1"-2" at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I apologize i'll post a link instead. Not you, me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I apologize i'll post a link instead. Not you lol. The other Metfan(Snow88) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not you, me lol ha lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As Jetspens mentioned the wind direction almost ensures the south shore and most of the NJ Coast are going to struggle mightily in this event Even the high resolution weeniebell snow maps show nothing on the south shore of Brooklyn and 6" in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As Jetspens mentioned the wind direction almost ensures the south shore and most of the NJ Coast are going to struggle mightily in this event Even the high resolution weeniebell snow maps show nothing on the south shore of Brooklyn and 6" in the Bronx. Hi-res maps have 5"-6" at LGA and 1"-2" at JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Yes. Somewhat OT: It looks like we get a brief reprieve in the short term, but in the long range, H500 shows we gradually head back into a very amped up and active pattern. By 200 hrs the pacific ridge and polar vortex are back in full-force. Incredible. If the long range verifies close to this, NYC most likely smashes any previous snowfall record. The major caveat being, this IS the long range.... True this is all in the long range and it is possible that tomorrow is a dud. However, even if it didn't snow again, we would still have a top 10 winter which is remarkable considering the dire forecasts with little blocking this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockawayRowdies Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Why is there such a huge difference between what the NWS says and the weenie amounts y'all are talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 As Jetspens mentioned the wind direction almost ensures the south shore and most of the NJ Coast are going to struggle mightily in this event Even the high resolution weeniebell snow maps show nothing on the south shore of Brooklyn and 6" in the Bronx. Ocean's are cold. There will be problems here but don't see how heavy precip rates and cold 850's shout pure rain. Warm layer is only 50mb deep, that can be easily overcome by decent precip rates despite strong SE surface winds. The SST's are very cold too, especially right along the coast where the bays are right around 33, 32ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Why is there such a huge difference between what the NWS says and the weenie amounts y'all are talking about? Because the nws is a professional service and they don't ride the nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Two days ago it snowed with 35-36F temps, 850's were cold thats why, heavy precip will cool column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z nam text output really doesn't show an EWL. All critical thicknesses are in range. For example here is Farmingdale, NY http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kfrg.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Ocean's are cold. There will be problems here but don't see how heavy precip rates and cold 850's shout pure rain. Warm layer is only 50mb deep, that can be easily overcome by decent precip rates despite strong SE surface winds. The SST's are very cold too, especially right along the coast where the bays are right around 33, 32ish. The fetch from the SE comes from pretty far off the coast though, where temps are warmer. We're going to need some luck to be favorable in this scenario. Right now I think it will be hard to squeeze out more than an inch or two before rain or amongst periods of rain. That said the surface isn't that warm even down by JFK, like 34 or so for much of the precip. So we may just have room for a 33-34 type thumping snow. But it's very questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z nam text output really doesn't show an EWL. All critical thicknesses are in range. For example here is Farmingdale, NY http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kfrg.txt Hmm that's interesting. Wondering why the hires nam is showing a pretty pronounced 850 to 700mb issue for coastal and nyc east areas.I think it's at 27 hours on hi res nam though when the band really swings thru so it's s actually not captured there on txt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Why is there such a huge difference between what the NWS says and the weenie amounts y'all are talking about? Operative word here is "weenie". NWS will bump up N & W, though, methinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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