Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wow .5+ for Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Nam is coming in stronger and further south with the secondary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 In this setup, the VVs and cool upper atmosphere should help keep the surface cold until the precip is over a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM makes me use caution.....debating whether i should go home today or tommorow from rockland county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM has very strong 500-700mb VVs and 925mb temps are cooler, over the area. Also 500-700mb lapse rate at 7.1 C/km in NYC 15z. It's light rain/drizzle by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12Z NAM has 0.75"+ for most of Upton's CWA, with 850 consistently -3 to -6 with the secondary attempting to pull in -10C air towards the end.... This is becoming quite interesting as the NAM has moved hugely to the robust short term models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.75 + QPF for the NYC area lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.75 + QPF for the NYC area lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Geez! That would be a warning event for my area if that is accurate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM has very strong 500-700mb VVs and 925mb temps are cooler, over the area. This is really looking like a winter storm warning event for our entire area with 5 to 8 inches of snow and 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. Wonder now if someone gets 8 to 9 inches on the north shore of LI with extreme heavy rates. Winds look to go from ESE to NE with excellent track of features for a significant snow. Somebody gets 8 to 9 inches in our immediate NYC LI area with 2 inch per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.75 + QPF for the NYC area lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Interested to see what he high res NAM does now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Not ready to bite fully yet....but if the GFS/RGEM move solidly in this more robust direction to meet the NAM/ST Models, looking like a more significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 My god. Remarkable how this seemingly innocuous system has transformed within 24 hours of the event into this...What a season so far. During most years I'd be very skeptical of a setup like this along the coast, but with recent trends and the way this season has been going, even the very bullish scenarios seem possible. Yet another system that needs to be watched VERY closely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 0.75 + QPF for the NYC area lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=033ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M of course the NAM has to come in with one of its over the top solutions - how many here think that amount will verify ? Raise your hands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If that happens. You're winds go NE. So the earlier transfer the better. And then the surface will stop its rise as the min 850s get to are minus 2 to minus 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 of course the NAM has to come in with one of its over the top solutions - how many here think that amount will verify ? RGEM SREF JMA. Are all .5. It's slightly above the rest of the guidance. But as always best to look at the whole suite before Jumping on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The NAM drops ~0.8"-0.9" QPF in about 6 hours...if its snow it would be VERY HEAVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 of course the NAM has to come in with one of its over the top solutions - how many here think that amount will verify ? Raise your hands The question will soon morph into ....how many people believe the 1-3" forecast you posted will verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I imagine with those UVVs, we would see dynamic cooling at the surface from Philly to NYC since the upper air temps look fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Getting high rate snows in this situation also coincides with a R/S line moving north as well, its a fair game, similar to the last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 My god. Remarkable how this seemingly innocuous system has transformed within 24 hours of the event into this...What a season so far. During most years I'd be very skeptical of a setup like this along the coast, but with recent trends and the way this season has been going, even the very bullish scenarios seem possible. Yet another system that needs to be watched VERY closely.... Been an amazing season for tracking, prob wont see a similar winter in terms of numerous moderate snowfalls for quite sometime. We still have a month or so of decent opportunities for snow and knowing how this winter has gone...well is it possible NYC beats its all time snow record? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 6 to 10 inches may be a safe forecast for NYC and LI at this point already. I can not believe how this is looking right now. Mike this is from the hi res NAM and from a model that is notorious for producing the most qpf of almost all the models. Not biting till i see support from the GFS/RGEM/GGEM and some from the EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 UVV's like that just may be able to overcome the low level warming taking place on the SE winds-last NAM run kept it cold enough for everyone save maybe the Twin Forks. We'll have to watch this closely but for now I'm holding back the enthusiasm for very near the coast. Again, just inland and even part of NYC may be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Our winds stay out of SE over NYC, when it's precipitating . It's strong dynamics (such as UVV) that hold back the warm air. Will have to see, if the other models today indicate anything like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 UVV's like that just may be able to overcome the low level warming taking place on the SE winds-last NAM run kept it cold enough for everyone save maybe the Twin Forks. We'll have to watch this closely but for now I'm holding back the enthusiasm for very near the coast. Again, just inland and even part of NYC may be a different story. 850 to 700mb thicknesses indicates a pretty significant EWL and the Bl doesn't look much better. .. Still not excited for this one. The Ewl makes sense given that potent flow injecting into that strong mid level Ridge over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I imagine with those UVVs, we would see dynamic cooling at the surface from Philly to NYC since the upper air temps look fine. Agree. If those vv's are realized, and since there is a very shallow layer of warm air there should be no problem dynamically cooling the surface temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 850 to 700mb thicknesses indicates a pretty significant EWL and the Bl doesn't look much better. .. Still not excited for this one. The Ewl makes sense given that potent flow injecting into that strong mid level Ridge over the area. If these precipitation totals come to pass this could border on a significant event in the burbs (Union, Essex, Bergen and N&W) but I don't see this being significant along the coast or in the metro with the wind direction and boundary layer as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You need to stop weenie-ing. it may happen, but you do this every storm. Cmon bro, he's the front runner for WOTY! 5-7 to 5-8 to 6-10 in this thread alone... when Mike feels it, he really feels it! I have a hunch, snowbanks 'til Independence Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The 4k nam is as follows. 6 plus through Philly into Trenton into nyc and up around through the NS of Nassau county. its 8 to 10 in NWNJ CNJ through Staten Island Brooklyn lower queens onto Long Island north of the south shore expwy looks 2 to 3. In Monmouth county once east of the gsp to the south shore of Nassau and Suffolk it shows zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I have this feeling that the temps will be lower than forecasted, right now it is 19F in NYC at 9am, hopefully we can get a little radiational cooling tonight before the clouds roll in, HP is 1032 on top of us right now, the precip should come in in the early morning hours so there is no solar heating, rates can overcome those quickly with 850's cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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