NJWeather201 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 4k has .75+...I don't know how believable this event is yet Looks really nice. Hmm... Do I doubt this event? Not at all considering some of our biggest storms this winter have been "pop ups" so to speak within 48 hours. This could simply be another statistic that falls in the same category. 24 Hours to go. Hi res models continue to trend higher with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The high resolution models may now be picking up on evaporative cooling The 4k NAM is an area wide 3 to 4. From Trenton through Monmouth county. Into NYC Nassau county NNJ and the LHV The 6z RGEM is more impressive and puts the same areas in the 6 plus area . We are probably looking at .5 If the high res are right expect snow. I think 2 to 3 is possible in nyc but 4 to 6 north of I80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Does anyone have the raw bufkit for ewr from the 6z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 a few things here to look at. Winds start SE but the models see a secondary so that may help in changing you're direction You're 850s start at minus 9 and get to minus 4 at the end of the event in NYC .So like most SWFE you prob snow and then you change closer to end . I'm not so sure about coastal Monmouth county , coastal Nassau and Suffolk counties as these area tend to do the worst with these set ups. Sometimes the first to change over after and inch or 2 . But just away from the coast there's a likely hood of an accumulating snow of greater than 3 inches . Once north of I80 I would think there's close to 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Anyone have 6z RGEM snow accumulation map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Anyone have 6z RGEM snow accumulation map? On the WB map. Shows you guys in the 2 to 3 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 On the WB map. Shows you guys in the 2 to 3 inch range. NE NJ? Bergen Cty North of I80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NE NJ? Bergen Cty North of I80 The RGEM is 3 plus. The 4k NAM is 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Snow tomorrow and SPC has us highlighted for severe in Day five, not often you see that around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Pls remember. This is coming off Ryan Maue s maps so take with a grain of salt. But the 850s away from the coast with .5 liquid support it IMO. There's been nothing but trouble w the maps all winter. So caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 06Z RGEM total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Little help pls.. want to post an image of 09z WSI RPM snow map but forgot how to upload to my media? BTW it shows 6--8" most of Northern Jersey. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Lets all post the progs that show the most snow and hug those maps....ignore climatology and meteorology. Not like it matters right? Guys this is generally a 1-3"/2-4" event for most. Enough of the wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is the 6z 4km NAM snowfall off ewall: At least 6" for NYC NW. It has convective banding with probably 2-3" per snowfall rates, around the secondary low that develops tomorrow near NJ. Some steep mid-level lapse rates and high TTs. Perhaps even some thunder. Likely overdone. But still interesting: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM, RGEM snowfall from 6z... What you'll note on the non-snowfall maps and the soundings is that it cuts the surface temp rise down significantly from 0z. Reason? Winds out of the north instead of out of the southeast for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This also agrees with thought of heavy band of snow from 5am around BWI to NYC by 9AM. if trend continues 2-4" for NYC will go to 4-6" if GFS and Euro up QPF. Also have to remember whatever falls on top of snowpack will be about double of that on roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This also agrees with thought of heavy band of snow from 5am around BWI to NYC by 9AM. if trend continues 2-4" for NYC will go to 4-6" if GFS and Euro up QPF. Also have to remember whatever falls on top of snowpack will be about double of that on roads. Upton does not agree with you this event will be very similar to saturdays IMO except its colder at the start http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 If surface temps can hold at 32f or colder through the heaviest stuff a 3-6" storm from Rt.78 north seems likely...certainly doesnt appear 850s will be the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think this is going to be primarily a snow event for everyone with the exception of the Long Island where mixing is not out of the question. Precipitation looks to end by 18z, and around 20z for eastern LI. A general 1-3 type event for coastal sections with 2-4 for northern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Upton does not agree with you this event will be very similar to saturdays IMO except its colder at the start http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Upton downgraded and blew my weekend storm total from 18-24 to 14-18 with 6 hrs left in the storm. I got over 22. Point is the situation with this system is still fluid and just because any given Met on this board has a different viewpoint than Upton, it doesn't invalidate their view in any way. That is the same whether they see more or less coming. Too many times the official forecast is underdone until obvious as not to alarm the public until its imminent. That's the beauty of this forum as Mets can speculate possibilities without causing a mass supermarket raid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 SREF are now 0.50 close to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Lets all post the progs that show the most snow and hug those maps....ignore climatology and meteorology. Not like it matters right? Guys this is generally a 1-3"/2-4" event for most. Enough of the wishcasting. North of I80 there's .5 inches of liquid 850 s are minus 8 and the surface gets to 30 They get 6 inches. You me and places to 78 get 2 or 3. And in between 78 and 80 there's pribably 3 to 4. It's modeled that way and we are saying the same thing . Upton is 2 to 4. Where's the whishcast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 North of I80 there's .5 inches of liquid 850 s are minus 8 and the surface gets to 30 They get 6 inches. You me and places to 78 get 2 or 3. And in between 78 and 80 there's pribably 3 to 4. It's modeled that way and we are saying the same thing . Upton is 2 to 4. Where's the whishcast ? not u but I was seeing a lot of obscure models posted this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think this is going to be primarily a snow event for everyone with the exception of the twin forks where precipitation is last to leave, and a little mixing there is not out of the question. Precipitation looks to end by 18z, and around 20z for eastern LI. This comes before the warm-up in temperatures. A general 1-3 type event for coastal sections with 2-4 for northern zones. I think a possible 5 to 7 inch event can happen if we can get 1 inch per hour rates between 7 am and noon. I bet we see +SN with 1/4 mile visibility by 7 AM. Let's see what happens. I think we have a significant over performer winter storm warning event on our hands with 95 percent snow and a 3 hour period of very heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 not u but I was seeing a lot of obscure models posted this am. I hear that. But the higher res are catching the evaporative cooling. The rip zones here are coastal Monmouth county up thru JFK coast Nassau and then Suffolk which don't like to snow on southerly winds. But CNJ to NYC and the NS of Nassau county could see the 2 to 4. I think the maxes are 80 north through the LHV. Now its there turn where it just wants to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I hear that. But the higher res are catching the evaporative cooling. The rip zones here are coastal Monmouth county up thru JFK coast Nassau and then Suffolk which don't like to snow on southerly winds. But CNJ to NYC and the NS of Nassau county could see the 2 to 4. I think the maxes are 80 north through the LHV. Now its there turn where it just wants to snow.I posted in the Philly forum about being cautious using those hires models to determine where the mesoscale banding unfolds. They performed horribly the past 2 events in locating where they would set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I hear that. But the higher res are catching the evaporative cooling. The rip zones here are coastal Monmouth county up thru JFK coast Nassau and then Suffolk which don't like to snow on southerly winds. But CNJ to NYC and the NS of Nassau county could see the 2 to 4. I think the maxes are 80 north through the LHV. Now its there turn where it just wants to snow. It looks like LI should wet bulb to 30-32 F through 90 percent of event with favorable thickness and temps for 6 inches of snow. Long Island will share with the interior along with NYC. I feel this will surprise us as a big over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It looks like LI should wet bulb to 30-32 F through 90 percent of event with favorable thickness and temps for 6 inches of snow. Long Island will share with the interior along with NYC. I feel this will surprise us as a big over performer. I like the north shore better for up to 6 but I will root for you mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 12z NAM coming in even more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 NAM coming in wetter, really nice VVs.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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