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Tuesday over running event


Mitchel Volk

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  On 2/15/2014 at 7:10 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Won't the temps be warm though, my forecast high is 43 for Tuesday with showers.

 

Wherever you are getting that forecast from, I would stop looking for weather information there.  The high on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 30's in East Brunswick.

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  On 2/15/2014 at 7:34 PM, Zir0b said:

I think that includes QPF from today's event.  Still looks like 0.50-0.75" though  Closer to the higher range probably. 

 Yeah, it does, but I would say this looks like around .75 to me looking at it on SV.  It is very much in line with the Canadian and Euro.

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  On 2/15/2014 at 7:55 PM, SnoSki14 said:

 

I don't look at them because I do my own weather forecasts.  People tell me though that when I was forecasting 10-20 inches in Northern New Jersey the other day, at the same time they were forecasting 1-3 inches of snow accumulations mixed with rain.  Just saying.

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From latest PHL AFD:

 

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG SHORT
WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 170 12 HR HFC WITH
NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG WAA WITH VERY GOOD SNOW GROWTH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS (-14C 600MB) IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD
SNOW ADVISORY I95 NORTHWARD INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND POTENTIAL
FOR A WARNING EVENT OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PLACES NEAR AND
NORTH OF I78.
SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE
START. SMALL CHC SNOW ENDS AS RAIN AT DAYBREAK SOUTH OF KPHL
COASTAL SECTIONS OCEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE NJ AND THE
SOUTH PART OF DELAWARE.

AM EXPECTING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED
WITH AT BEST...DELAYS ACROSS E PA AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NJ.

 

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  On 2/15/2014 at 9:31 PM, Keith O said:

From latest PHL AFD:

 

LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG SHORT

WAVE DRIVES EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY 170 12 HR HFC WITH

NEGATIVE TILT...STRONG WAA WITH VERY GOOD SNOW GROWTH FOR SEVERAL

HOURS (-14C 600MB) IN THE 06Z-18Z TIME FRAME SUGGESTS A WIDESPREAD

SNOW ADVISORY I95 NORTHWARD INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND POTENTIAL

FOR A WARNING EVENT OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IN SOME PLACES NEAR AND

NORTH OF I78. SUB FREEZING PROFILES ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE

START. SMALL CHC SNOW ENDS AS RAIN AT DAYBREAK SOUTH OF KPHL

COASTAL SECTIONS OCEAN COUNTY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SE NJ AND THE

SOUTH PART OF DELAWARE.

AM EXPECTING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED

WITH AT BEST...DELAYS ACROSS E PA AND MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN NJ.

 

Excellent discussion - whole thing is worth a read...

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

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  On 2/15/2014 at 9:52 PM, RU848789 said:

What I'm reallly liking is the .75 falling falling through potentially minus 10 air. It would be amazing if we pulled off another double digit

Snowfall

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  On 2/15/2014 at 9:02 PM, Franklin0529 said:

Shows high of 43 for coastal Monmouth.. Looks like rain

Bud. Could you please post in the banter thread. I don't think you know what you are looking at and its hard to read through . You should not be in a threat thread .

At 66 850s are minus 8. The surface is in the upper 20s At 69 they are minus 2 for u at the coast. The surface at the coast ticks above 35 its 3 days out on the NAM and with SWFE its not uncommon to end as drizzle while most of you're snow has already fallen

The entire 12 z was colder aloft and at the surface

Please stop posting you're stuff here and stay in the banter. It's not helpful to the discussion

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  On 2/15/2014 at 10:31 PM, PB GFI said:

Bud. Could you please post in the banter thread. I don't think you know what you are looking at and its hard to read through . You should not be in a threat thread .

At 66 850s are minus 8. The surface is in the upper 20s At 69 they are minus 2 for u at the coast. The surface at the coast ticks above 35 its 3 days out on the NAM and with SWFE its not uncommon to end as drizzle while most of you're snow has already fallen

The entire 12 z was colder aloft and at the surface

Please stop posting you're stuff here and stay in the banter. It's not helpful to the discussion

this threat wasn't really on my radar per say but it looks like maybe another 6-10 inch event for NYC/NJ and LI to end as drizzle with the WAA towards the end. liking this now and think it is trending in the right direction paul. no worries paul I wont do a PbP with accumulated QPF anytime soon, I shot the **** in this storms thread :lol:

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  On 2/15/2014 at 10:35 PM, REDMK6GLI said:

this threat wasn't really on my radar per say but it looks like maybe another 6-10 inch event for NYC/NJ and LI to end as drizzle with the WAA towards the end. liking this now and think it is trending in the right direction paul. no worries paul I wont do a PbP with accumulated QPF anytime soon, I shot the **** in this storms thread :lol:

I really like this one.

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  On 2/15/2014 at 10:40 PM, SnoSki14 said:

So that means we get to completely dismiss it? I'm sure we'll get something but I doubt it'll be too significant.

Euro and Canadian are on board for a significant event. That's a hard alliance to beat. The way this winter is going, anything is possible.

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  On 2/15/2014 at 10:40 PM, PB GFI said:

I really like this one.

 

I really like spring right now. one huge thing we can take away from this winter when she finally decides to head back north till the end of this year is we made the absolute most of what any met would see was crappy teleconnectors. we had great timed transient blocking and poleward -EPO that really kept the snow chances plentiful from start to finish this winter. who would have thought many of us would be able to approach 95'-96' snowfall seasonal totals in a winter pattern like that compared to what we've had this year which was basically not really all that condusive for the seasonal totals we've accumulated so far.

 

that said this threat has moderate-moderate/major impact for the PHL-NYC-LI area for Tuesday, you've been pretty damn good this year in pointing out the threats and great basis to support said threats

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