Area Snow Climo Thread

[WEATHER53]

Nearby river?

Stadium same area, 32* water will not add 5*

[WEATHER53]

more erroneous facts...I enjoy your posts H--ward, but almost every single time you post on these issues you have to be fact checked....being constantly wrong with facts makes for very poor debate...Andrews and Belvoir were both 27 at 3am....Nationals park always reads low...not sure exactly what they were....this stuff became tiresome long ago

So just ignore Nationals, it reads low because of magic?  UHI must have cuircumstances that produce the heat.  When every inch of the land mass around DCA is covered by 3"+ of snow, when it is snowing 1"ph, when it's 3am, there is no heat to be released unless it is radiating out from the sides of buildings. You are holding onto a myth.

[Deck Pic]

So just ignore Nationals, it reads low because of magic?  UHI must have cuircumstances that produce the heat.  When every inch of the land mass around DCA is covered by 3"+ of snow, when it is snowing 1"ph, when it's 3am, there is no heat to be released unless it is radiating out from the sides of buildings. You are holding onto a myth.

 

Nationals park is usually an outlier...I know local PWS's and weatherbugs quite well

 

Why were Andrews and Ft Belvoir 25-27 most of the night...Their sensors bad too?

 

Plus your theories on UHI are not true..

 

I realize there is not a single fact I can ever present that will debunk you of your conspiracy....you are attached to it and nothing will stop you...so I guess I am dumb for trying...I just wish you wouldnt keep making up facts....I live in an UHI now...I experience it all the time...it is super real..and it doesnt disappear with snowcover.....there is a reason IAD had -18 readings back in the 80s and they will never come close again...It doesnt matter if there is 30" of snow...

[haudidoody]

I'm so sick of this DCA whining. I've lived a couple miles from DCA for 10 years, along with a couple hundred thousand other people. Its observations, both of temperature and snowfall accumulations, other than for one of the blizzards in 2010, are always very close to my own. They may be an inch off or a degree or two off, but that is likely a function of the extreme built environment at the airport, as well as the river. It's not some ongoing troll from the DCA observers, or a problem with the equipment.

[Ian]

I'm so sick of this DCA whining. I've lived a couple miles from DCA for 10 years, along with a couple hundred thousand other people. Its observations, both of temperature and snowfall accumulations, other than for one of the blizzards in 2010, are always very close to my own. They may be an inch off or a degree or two off, but that is likely a function of the extreme built environment at the airport, as well as the river. It's not some ongoing troll from the DCA observers, or a problem with the equipment.

Yep and it matches downtown more than a spot in the far NW part of the city does. I'm basically at smile and nod stage with the complainers.

[snowfan]

Speaking for the N and W areas, my folks are about 10 miles from mappy and theyre at 64" for the year. Thats almost 30" above. My house is about 65 miles south and am at 31.5" for the year which is 11" above. This would never surprise me.....in any year.

[clskinsfan]

Did you check the obs when the river was frozen over?  Dead on with everyone else.  I'm thinking that very close body of water makes a difference.

And the predominate wind direction blows right off of the river onto the airport. I agree its not a conspiracy. Its just a terrible place for DC's official obs. It should be at the mall or something like that.

[Ian]

And the predominate wind direction blows right off of the river onto the airport. I agree its not a conspiracy. Its just a terrible place for DC's official obs. It should be at the mall or something like that.

Difference on the mall would be negligible.

[Fozz]

Yea, close in got hosed with temps mostly. The disparity wouldn't be nearly as bad if the precip bomb in Jan wasn't a complete rainer here. The early Dec stuff was mostly temp issues as well. Change in local climate? I suppose our days of scoring sketchy temp storms aren't what they used to be. 

 

Also, look at philly. They are simply having a steller year. We've seen a lot of repeating bullseyes through the years as well. The areas north are close to philly latitude. We may be revisiting the new subforum grand opening if this happens again next year. LOL

 

Philly's amazing streak started in Feb 2009 when they got 8" of localized mesoscale snow which didn't affect that much of the East coast IIRC. Then in 09-10 they somehow reported near-record totals for the big ones, and also got lucky in December 2010 with a foot. And then there's this year...

 

As mitch said a little while back, their average used to be almost identical to BWI's and I didn't notice much difference in their snow climo for most of the 00s.

[Fozz]

I've got ~15" more and I'm not even that far.  But I'm above the fall line.  

 

^this

 

The fall line is probably the most important geographical feature in central MD that separates the haves and have-nots with snowfall, even moreso in a winter of marginal events. I've been on both sides of the line in big snow events, from Lutherville/Cockeysville to College Park, and I daresay it's the 40N of our region.

[Deck Pic]

Difference on the mall would be negligible.

 

yes..moving the station to anywhere in or near downtown DC at <100' would be pointless.....I honestly haven't seen any compelling evidence that this is some calibration issue or conspiracy...And it isn't like I am some big DCA defender.  Their Liquid totals for a number of storms are ridiculously low and it isn't right in my opinion that they are certified.  There is compelling evidence of that.  I am open to cogent arguments when the facts are there.

[winterymix]

1958

1966

1983

1987

1996

2003

2009-2010

2014

 

I remember these vividly and remember the second tier vividly as well.

Snow is like real estate...location...

[Ian]

yes..moving the station to anywhere in or near downtown DC at <100' would be pointless.....I honestly haven't seen any compelling evidence that this is some calibration issue or conspiracy...And it isn't like I am some big DCA defender.  Their Liquid totals for a number of storms are ridiculously low and it isn't right in my opinion that they are certified.  There is compelling evidence of that.  I am open to cogent arguments when the facts are there.

True. There are definitely some odd ones in there.. can't believe they left the Snowmageddon total as 1.5".. no way it was that low.  I think there is also compelling evidence of some mismeasurments of snow.  The former is probably an equipment issue with no one caring enough to rectify the database issue and the latter is probably human error. I'm not sure where they put the snowboard is in a good spot either.. looks like it's too close to the building. 

[gymengineer]

True. There are definitely some odd ones in there.. can't believe they left the Snowmageddon total as 1.5".. no way it was that low.  I think there is also compelling evidence of some mismeasurments of snow.  The former is probably an equipment issue with no one caring enough to rectify the database issue and the latter is probably human error. I'm not sure where they put the snowboard is in a good spot either.. looks like it's too close to the building. 

You've been teasing us with the scoop for awhile Ever going to share fully on here or in an article? 

One of Matt's favorite examples is the first snow in 1/05 for a DCA "huh?!" I know people rally to defend the DCA snow numbers with snow totals in the immediate area from LWX PNS reports. For the most part, I agree that they match up pretty well, but I also take the PNS totals with a grain of salt in the more urban areas because we know that most who send in reports in the big storms 1) Don't follow the snow-board 6 hr method 2) Don't have quick access to expanses that aren't paved. 

I actually have to walk about a quarter mile to get to any area that isn't contaminated with warmth by being right on route 355 for any observation. 

[Ian]

You've been teasing us with the scoop for awhile Ever going to share fully on here or in an article? 

One of Matt's favorite examples is the first snow in 1/05 for a DCA "huh?!" I know people rally to defend the DCA snow numbers with snow totals in the immediate area from LWX PNS reports. For the most part, I agree that they match up pretty well, but I also take the PNS totals with a grain of salt in the more urban areas because we know that most who send in reports in the big storms 1) Don't follow the snow-board 6 hr method 2) Don't have quick access to anything that's not paved. 

I actually have to walk about a quarter mile to get to any area that isn't contaminated with warmth by being right on route 355. 

Ha.. most boring scoop ever. If you want to know I'll send you a msg.. not sure it needs to be broadcast to anyone who reads the board, though I think it would be relatively easy to come across if you walked the normal airport routes. I guess I had some ops to go check it out this winter but for some reason it feels kinda shady going to the airport and measuring snow lol.  Imagine explaining that to security...

 

I've gotten personal enough with so many datasets at this pt I don't even worry about skewed numbers much anymore.. none of it really means anything and it's all wrong. Ok, not that bad.. but a good baseline of expectations.  I have decent confidence in temps there.. raw precip much of the time, but not necessarily in snow events... snow is iffy, but let's be real (as you allude to in part) snow is iffy everywhere.  Case in point I know for a fact that a number of pretty smart weather people measure in grass etc. Lots eyeball.. and maybe adjust according to other reports.  For whatever reason there is lots of mental justification to be generous with snow reports...

 

On the flip side, there's strong likelihood whoever is measuring at DCA doesn't really care as much about snow as people do here.. so quit easy to see them not spending tons of time to make sure everything is ideal for a proper measurement.  I have heard stories of running out to measure on the roof etc too. I don't think it's all that scientific in a lot of these official locations that people are doing it as a "because I'm there" part of their job.  We spend all our time on DCA but why is BWI's total always lowered after the fact etc?

[Bob Chill]

Dca is in a perfect spot to be warmer than the majority of the surrounding areas. We've been through this ad naseum for years. From a temp perspective it's totally in line with nearby obs. I don't see any evidence to the contrary.

I moved away from caring about snow totals. My yard is #1 and everywhere else is #100+. I'm very honest with my snow totals too. I never pad or fudge. My yard is what it is. I believe most folks here are the same way. Being accurate with obs is the true spirit of a weather enthusiest.

For those that constantly embellish, we know who you are.

[gymengineer]

Ha.. most boring scoop ever. If you want to know I'll send you a msg.. not sure it needs to be broadcast to anyone who reads the board, though I think it would be relatively easy to come across if you walked the normal airport routes. I guess I had some ops to go check it out this winter but for some reason it feels kinda shady going to the airport and measuring snow lol.  Imagine explaining that to security...

 

I've gotten personal enough with so many datasets at this pt I don't even worry about skewed numbers much anymore.. none of it really means anything and it's all wrong. Ok, not that bad.. but a good baseline of expectations.  I have decent confidence in temps there.. raw precip much of the time, but not necessarily in snow events... snow is iffy, but let's be real (as you allude to in part) snow is iffy everywhere.  Case in point I know for a fact that a number of pretty smart weather people measure in grass etc. Lots eyeball.. and maybe adjust according to other reports.  For whatever reason there is lots of mental justification to be generous with snow reports...

 

On the flip side, there's strong likelihood whoever is measuring at DCA doesn't really care as much about snow as people do here.. so quit easy to see them not spending tons of time to make sure everything is ideal for a proper measurement.  I have heard stories of running out to measure on the roof etc too. I don't think it's all that scientific in a lot of these official locations that people are doing it as a "because I'm there" part of their job.  We spend all our time on DCA but why is BWI's total always lowered after the fact etc?

 

Sure, message me the details. I totally agree that snow totals are always iffy.... and there are these nuances with urban vs. suburban vs. rural snow measurements. 

 

I've personally measured snow for like 15 years in a typical suburban cul-du-sac and then had to switch to a site facing one of the largest non-highway arteries in the region. Is my measurement sitting on Route 355 really useful? I don't think so, because it's literally the warmest possible location anywhere within walking distance of me. So of course I started walking a quarter mile to get to a location that is not quite so exposed to all the cars rolling by. 

 

I guess I'm saying that the low totals all around DCA make total sense, but they also might be part of a low-balled circumstance in general. Someone living in Crystal City is going to have a much more difficult time setting up a snow board in an undisturbed location than someone living in Damascus.... and that Damascus person probably was able to situate that snow board in an area pretty far from everything else whereas the Crystal City person's snow board, if it exists, is actually on a square of grass five feet away from the condo building. 

[gymengineer]

And to be clear, I'm not suggesting a DCA big problem or anything like that--- I'm just saying that people all have to measure snow in however way they can manage. What the downtown city folk do to get to a snow total, which they've posted on here numerous times, is clearly different than what the longtime spotters/COOP/COCORAH folk out on a 2-acre plots do, having their 6-hr routine nailed down pat. But because the urban environment is just different, it adds to the difficulties of capturing officially defined snowfall for a storm.

[Deck Pic]

DCA's 25 year median is 9.8" through last winter and average is 13.5"

 

I think 10" is a good over/under...15.4" is of little use since it is greatly influenced by 81-88, and those winters are so far removed at this point..if you include this winter, 15.4" would be tied for 5th out of 26 winters going back to 88-89

 

 

 

if you go back to 81, average is 15" and median 11.7"

[Fozz]

I'll continue the climo talk from the other thread here

 

the avg here is probably closer to 40" at least it has been for the time I've lived in the area and the old millers coop data I had for a 25 year period. Median is probably close to 30 but I'm not sure.
The micro climate here is fun sometimes. Not only does the area do well in big storms but there are numerous small events a year here out of nowhere. Couple years ago a convective band of precip setup and was just cold enough on the ridge here. dumped 3" in like an hour during what was otherwise a bad pattern.

 

I just checked the data for Millers from 1988-89 through 2013-14, found a median of 29" and average of 34". Almost 3 times the median of DCA.

 

Overall looks very close to your numbers, though 2009-10 had 87.6" rather than 100.... maybe it's the slightly lower elevation?

[I-83 BLIZZARD]

I'll continue the climo talk from the other thread here

I just checked the data for Millers from 1988-89 through 2013-14, found a median of 29" and average of 34". Almost 3 times the median of DCA.

Overall looks very close to your numbers, though 2009-10 had 87.6" rather than 100.... maybe it's the slightly lower elevation?

Maybe localized banding or terrain. Sometimes one side of a slope can do better than another side. A farmer that farms near the end of my road once said that this side of the road gets more snow than the other side of the hill because on a north wind the snow is forced or squeezed out and deposited more on this end. Not sure what impact terrain or topography has in hilly areas on ground truth, but it was an interesting observation. Some of the hills near Manchester are over 1100 feet, and the slopes can be rather steep in that area.

[HighStakes]

 

I'll continue the climo talk from the other thread here

 

 

I just checked the data for Millers from 1988-89 through 2013-14, found a median of 29" and average of 34". Almost 3 times the median of DCA.

 

Overall looks very close to your numbers, though 2009-10 had 87.6" rather than 100.... maybe it's the slightly lower elevation?

 

Definitely broke 100 inches here that year. I measured 102.5 total. Millers is only 10-15 minutes tops from where I live so they are off somewhat. I know others here measured higher amounts total than me so there is no doubt my total is in line. The lowest spot around Millers would still be 800-850 so it wasn't an elevation thing. It could've been a banding type thing with some of the storms or maybe they always measure low or possibly because where they sit between ridges cause them to get shafted at times.