JetsPens87 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler. We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through. I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening. I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI. I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's. Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block. Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too.... I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day. Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20. Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling. Holy crap where do you get this stuff lol? I want some of what you're on. In all honesty everything is pointing to a return for possibly below average temperatures by the end of the month. As well as increased snow chances once again. Winter seems far from over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think we crossed 63" around March 3 or 4, 1996. Am I right?Somebody on here hopefully knows this. And didnt we also have like a 12 inch snowstorm in April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Somebody on here hopefully knows this. And didnt we also have like a 12 inch snowstorm in April? March 1996 had three snowfalls over 4" in KNYC...0.7" in April but more away from the uhi...Over 10" on L.I.they had a few days over 60 in March also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS has about 1-2 day thaw and that's it. The pattern reloads and mutiple threats are now showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 GFS has about 1-2 day thaw and that's it. The pattern reloads and mutiple threats are now showing up again. It's not so much a thaw as it is a gradual transition into Spring, albeit rather brief. The highs would actually be near/slightly above normal on the gfs during this "mild period" as averages are getting into the mid 40s now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's not so much a thaw as it is a gradual transition into Spring, albeit rather brief. The highs would actually be near/slightly above normal on the gfs during this "mild period" as averages are getting into the mid 40s now. Gradual transition into Spring? GFS only shows a 1 day warmup followed by winter returning with mutiple storm chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 If the 0z Euro suite verifys, winter will continue. Just wanted to throw it out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 If the 0z Euro suite verifys, winter will continue. Just wanted to throw it out there The Euro looks like the first readings in the teens for the last week of February in NYC since 2008 and 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The Euro looks like the first readings in the teens for the last week of February in NYC since 2008 and 2006. D8+D9 look interesting also on the 0z euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 D8+D9 look interesting also on the 0z euro op It will be interesting to see how that low tracks since it is still so far out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Gradual transition into Spring? GFS only shows a 1 day warmup followed by winter returning with mutiple storm chance. The JMA seasonal is going with below normal temps here in March and possibly into April on the latest monthly update a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The JMA seasonal is going with below normal temps here in March and possibly into April on the latest monthly update a few days ago. Correct me if I am wrong but the analogs during a -EPO winter show snow in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This warmup has little staying power....piece of the PV set to revisit northeast by week 4 of the month. Not as cold as last one but looks to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Compared to the two big thaws we had this winter, this warm-up is downright pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GFS has a storm signal on the 24-25th, just like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GGEM joins the party with a storm near the 24-25th. So now we have the Euro, GGEM and GFS showing a storm around the timeframe. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=204&fixhh=1&hh=192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Euro has quite the arctic outbreak coming on the OP run after day 7....extremely impressive. Looks like winter is not even a hair close to being done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Changing wave lengths along with a PNA spike could be interesting for end of February into March, the MJO also looks favorable for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 the NAO looks to be taking a dip after this warmup as well to around neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 All those indices including the rebirth of the -epo seem great! Now to see if we can spin something up between the 24th-26th :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Btw what did the euro show in the long range? Didn't see anything posted about the threat day 7ish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Btw what did the euro show in the long range? Didn't see anything posted about the threat day 7ish... Big storm just inland near the 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Btw what did the euro show in the long range? Didn't see anything posted about the threat day 7ish... Still has something there, cold after, another threat day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Thanks folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 That track of the D 7-10 low is way to far inland for the nyc metro and possibly inland to get snow hopefully it changes cause that would suck if were back to being cold and it took that track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 That track of the D 7-10 low is way to far inland for the nyc metro and possibly inland to get snow hopefully it changes cause that would suck if were back to being cold and it took that track.... It's 7 days out so it'll change numerous times, though I'm skeptical of any significant events as we near and enter March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 That track of the D 7-10 low is way to far inland for the nyc metro and possibly inland to get snow hopefully it changes cause that would suck if were back to being cold and it took that track.... Should have been more clear, what I posted is D7.......There is another threat D10.....Still an eternity to get to D7, even more so this year. I'm sure we'll see some shifting around with modeling to come (good or bad) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's 7 days out so it'll change numerous times, though I'm skeptical of any significant events as we near and enter March. Why? March can very well deliver significant events, and the cold is coming back to end the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It's 7 days out so it'll change numerous times, though I'm skeptical of any significant events as we near and enter March. Starts getting much more difficult especially for the nyc metro. Obviously we've all seen it can happen but it's more difficult I think. ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Why? March can very well deliver significant events, and the cold is coming back to end the monthI fully expect snow into april this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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