late feb torch/post torch discussion

[forkyfork]

a strong SE ridge and warmth appears unavoidable for about a week after this snow blitz. however the familiar blue colors appear toward late month as the pac ridge returns

[PB GFI]

a strong SE ridge and warmth appears unavoidable for about a week after this snow blitz. however the familiar blue colors appear toward late month as the pac ridge returns

JMA weeklies at 500 for March , look Cold . Trough through the lakes . Would love a late season block and see if we can extend this 

[MJO812]

First thread ever made by Forky? Good thread. Looking good for winter to return by late month.

[uncle W]

February 1994 had four or five days near 60 for an almost complete melt down of the snow pack...Winter returned on the 23rd and there were four more snowfalls to contend with...

[TWCCraig]

Euro and GFS both hinting at some days possibly getting into the 60's, mostly in NJ. GFS and Euro also hinting at time winds will be W-NW after frontal passages with warm air still aloft. Would help the coast warm up in that case instead of being cloudy and foggy. The snow pack in the interior will keep temp down a bit too.

[IsentropicLift]

I could see a few really wound up cutters in the medium to long range. The Euro is about 1.5" of QPF over the next ten days, about 75% rain and 25% frozen, roughly.

 

The 12z GEFS looked pretty good post day ten with a chance at another miller A.

[bluewave]

JMA weeklies at 500 for March , look Cold . Trough through the lakes . Would love a late season block and see if we can extend this 

 

The NEPAC ridge with the -EPO looks to make yet another return. Any troughing near the Gulf Of Alaska has

been short lived over the last year or so as the ridge just keeps reloading. Like you said, the new JMA out

today carries the same theme for March.

 

 

[forkyfork]

The NEPAC ridge with the -EPO looks to make yet another return. Any troughing near the Gulf Of Alaska has

been short lived over the last year or so as the ridge just keeps reloading. Like you said, the new JMA out

today carries the same theme for March.

 

Y201402.D1312_gl0.png

 

Y201402.D1000.png

not counting tomorrow or monday i think we'll get another warning criteria event with that pac ridge spike like all the others this winter

[bluewave]

not counting tomorrow or monday i think we'll get another warning criteria event with that pac ridge spike like all the others this winter

 

Yeah, I agree that will be another window of opportunity to watch for here as colder than normal temps arrive

after the brief thaw.

[Mikehobbyst]

Yeah, I agree that will be another window of opportunity to watch for here as colder than normal temps arrive

after the brief thaw.

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler.  We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through.  I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening.  I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI.  I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's.  Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block.  Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too....  I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day.  Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20.  Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

[MJO812]

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler.  We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through.  I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening.  I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI.  I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's.  Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block.  Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too....  I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day.  Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20.  Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

The GFS is colder than the Euro but still has a thaw for next week before winter comes back.

[Bobby]

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler. We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through. I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening. I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI. I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's. Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block. Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too.... I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day. Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20. Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

Thanks for another enjoyable read....

[EasternLI]

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler.  We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through.  I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening.  I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI.  I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's.  Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block.  Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too....  I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day.  Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20.  Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

 

Ummm, yea you deserve it 

[MJO812]

The latest MJO index forecast from the GEFS looks great for our area.

 

 

The MJO from the Euro has it going into the COD

[PB GFI]

Day 10

[bluewave]

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler.  We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through.  I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening.  I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI.  I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's.  Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block.  Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too....  I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day.  Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20.  Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

 

It's going to be very brief later this week as temps rise in the upper 40's and possibly above 50 before

we cool down again. We had a brief warm up on Groundhog Day and then it snowed the next day.

[MJO812]

Nice PNA ridge. The tellies are showing the PNA rising near the end of February.

 

[Chris L]

We will end winter with a major snowstorm, that will put us near the 1995-1996 record snow. I think it occurs.

[Zir0b]

lol, suddenly the GGEM doesn't have much of a warmup next week. Alaskan vortex is gone and -EPO followed by +PNA tries to develop with a possible overrunning system D10 

[Heisy]

EURO warms us up for like a day or 2 before getting cold again. Sweet.

[MJO812]

EURO warms us up for like a day or 2 before getting cold again. Sweet.

Same with the GFS

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

I'm ready for spring after this awful storm. I agree though cold will return and we should see a couple more moderate 6-8 type events

[MJO812]

I'm ready for spring after this awful storm. I agree though cold will return and we should see a couple more moderate 6-8 type events

Lets try to beat 1995-1996

[Heisy]

I'm ready for spring after this awful storm. I agree though cold will return and we should see a couple more moderate 6-8 type events

 

We have 8 months of warm weather to look forward to, might as well be cold/snow while it still can, this is a wx forum, you gotta root the extremes on. 

[nzucker]

Lets try to beat 1995-1996

We have a real shot now...Central Park has 54" of snow coming into today, with 2-4" expected tonight.

 

Given a decent snow event from the SW flow event, we should be around 60".

 

That means we need 15" from late February and March after the PAC ridge returns and the pattern improves. That's entirely within the realm of possibility.

[TWCCraig]

We have 8 months of warm weather to look forward to, might as well be cold/snow while it still can, this is a wx forum, you gotta root the extremes on. 

 

Right. Everyone should root for what they want. This seems more like a snow forum than a weather forum though. There's more to weather than just snow.

 

I'm rooting on the warmth.

[JBG]

We have a real shot now...Central Park has 54" of snow coming into today, with 2-4" expected tonight.

 

Given a decent snow event from the SW flow event, we should be around 60".

 

That means we need 15" from late February and March after the PAC ridge returns and the pattern improves. That's entirely within the realm of possibility.

I think we crossed 63" around March 3 or 4, 1996. Am I right?

[WE GOT HIM]

The GFS is colder than the Euro but still has a thaw for next week before winter comes back.

Seems to be less of a thaw every run

[WE GOT HIM]

Right. Everyone should root for what they want. This seems more like a snow forum than a weather forum though. There's more to weather than just snow.

 

I'm rooting on the warmth.

Ill take the snow now...I just hope we can have a hot summer and actually have some storms this year

[HailMan06]

What thaw ???, some of the models are showing this as a 35-38 degree thaw as the 6Z GFS trended much cooler. We may have ZR issues just away from the coast over the next 10 days with the polar boundary mostly south of the region, and waves moving through. I bet 40/40 temp dew point conditions are not happening. I see 37/37 the best for this thaw.... I think the thaw will be gone on most models this afternoon, with more just above freezing highs for Wed through next Sunday with ZR becoming more concerning just 30 miles away from NYC and LI. I am going to take a hunch that the 2/25-3/20 period is exceptionally cold and snowy, with 80 percent of the highs in the 20's. Only chance of sustained highs above 40 is not happening until 3/20 or 4/1, I think that may be too optimistic with -EPO likely going through May and sudden Strat. warming likely giving us a 40-60 day NAO block. Waiting till May for winter to end this year, and I strongly believe it too.... I know it never has happened before, but this may be our one time of bud out and leaf out being 5-6 weeks late this year, and trees all bare through 5/10, with leafout completed by Memorial Day. Last snow piles gone in lots by 5/20. Track this and let's see if I am very lucky on this prediction, hunch, feeling.

You would probably need a Toba event for your prediction to come true. Snow piles until 5/20? Trees won't begin to leaf out until well in to May? Are you serious?