Randy4Confluence Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I get moody, but I'm a real winter historian at heart....starting to get to that time of year when the sun gets higher, pitchers and catchers report, and I can start charting the current season's ranking in my winter annals. Never, ever gets old....I suppose that element of my persona is why I like baseball, which lends itself to watching that stats compile; same with regard to snowfall. Baseball season is the perfect filler to get me to the next winter. I realize in OCT we're not there yet, but that's when I start to take off the tarp that's covering the models,blow dust off of them, and watch for our first day where we stay below 0 at 850mb for a day.Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 No one else would be willing to risk a month and a half break in a good winter, calling out a NWS possible bust. Storm's almost over here and not even 3", in fact I bet many in western Hillsborough didn't get 2". I'll patiently wait until the end. Very good call for your area Box still has me at 6-8". I might have 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what a bust for many locales...had an inch or so here after a 2-4 advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what a bust for many locales...had an inch or so here after a 2-4 advisory. Yeah some people went a little crazy with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 what a bust for many locales...had an inch or so here after a 2-4 advisory. yea I thought 1-2" would break for sw ct. I think the recent storms got into many peoples heads, kind of an overreaction imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Baseball season is the perfect filler to get me to the next winter. I realize in OCT we're not there yet, but that's when I start to take off the tarp that's covering the models,blow dust off of them, and watch for our first day where we stay below 0 at 850mb for a day. Sent from my VS980 4G Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 No one else would be willing to risk a month and a half break in a good winter, calling out a NWS possible bust. Storm's almost over here and not even 3", in fact I bet many in western Hillsborough didn't get 2". I'll patiently wait until the end. This storm by and large was a bust. Bust in the west low of the lower totals for many, bust in the east as this never came close to meeting the blizzard criteria or the lofty totals. I've got over 9, under 10" with .90 LE. It fell right within the expectations I put up hours ago when many were telling me I was being a Debbie. Objectively (without emotion) this one had the hallmarks of a system that may not break well. When the pivot point established dead on around eastern long island as some models had....not good. Sure...this was west of what the RGEM indicated..but it was the one model right in keeping the majority of the heavy stuff east of the cape tonight (where it quickly collapsed an hour or so ago). Will hit it right - a blend of the models. A very nice storm but far below the expectations today for a blizzard. Very nice don't get me wrong but yikes what was the nAM doing with 2+ " QPF during the storm and busting...and the euro with the 1.6" too....yikes. RAP was okay, several of the HRRR runs were atrocious again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 This storm by and large was a bust. Bust in the west low of the lower totals for many, bust in the east as this never came close to meeting the blizzard criteria or the lofty totals. I've got over 9, under 10" with .90 LE. It fell right within the expectations I put up hours ago when many were telling me I was being a Debbie. Objectively (without emotion) this one had the hallmarks of a system that may not break well. When the pivot point established dead on around eastern long island as some models had....not good. Sure...this was west of what the RGEM indicated..but it was the one model right in keeping the majority of the heavy stuff east of the cape tonight (where it quickly collapsed an hour or so ago). Will hit it right - a blend of the models. A very nice storm but far below the expectations today for a blizzard. Very nice don't get me wrong but yikes what was the nAM doing with 2+ " QPF during the storm and busting...and the euro with the 1.6" too....yikes. RAP was okay, several of the HRRR runs were atrocious again. I agree with most of this. The QPF was ridiculous, I hope no one (well, usual suspects aside) believed those 3" totals had a shot. The red flags hashed out a couple days ago never wavered, and imo, that's a big part of what prevented a more impressive storm. And maybe exposed some model bias. Thankfully it's over (or close to it in your case) and we can move to the next debacle, I mean storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 kinda cool to see extreme se ct and s ri do really well......surprised ri from narr to newport not a bit higher than six though??? se ct to s coast ri with a very few exceptions is one of the biggest snow holes in sne (equal with my area for being on low end of things).....even in some of the best southern coastals they can really struggle with dec 09 one of the very few storms i have seen that area really shine in so good for them, wonder what bid had.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You guus are going overboard. This was a 20-30 mile shift in which we said it have big implications. Lets not make it sound like it was a whiff. Snow amounts to the west worked out fairly well. Near CC got almost a foot. Did anyone really think 3" of QPF in 8 hrs was going to occur? I hope not. Because it was a narrow QPF area BOS got what Ray got etc and I was 15 miles from 10". It happens.... Hell the blizzard last year ticked east too, but nobody realizes that because it was such a widespread snow distribution. When you have a very narrow area of heavy QPF 20-30 miles is everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You guus are going overboard. This was a 20-30 mile shift in which we said it have big implications. Lets not make it sound like it was a whiff. Snow amounts to the west worked out fairly well. Near CC got almost a foot. Did anyone really think 3" of QPF in 8 hrs was going to occur? I hope not. Because it was a narrow QPF area BOS got what Ray got etc and I was 15 miles from 10". It happens.... Hell the blizzard last year ticked east too, but nobody realizes that because it was such a widespread snow distribution. When you have a very narrow area of heavy QPF 20-30 miles is everything.yep, model blend, all the chest thumpers missed the fact SE CT SRI got 8-10, I got 6 all within forecasts. I read over and over how only. 25 -, 5 would occur because of the shift, now this morning its made out like this was a pedestrian storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 yep, model blend, all the chest thumpers missed the fact SE CT SRI got 8-10, I got 6 all within forecasts. I read over and over how only. 25 -, 5 would occur because of the shift, now this morning its made out like this was a pedestrian storm. It did move east which was a concern, but the fact that the QPF shield was narrow seems like it jaded some into thinking the low was a big whiff. I got less than I hoped and it was obvious by late aftn, but hey....that's how it goes.The emotional tones in some posts yesterday were very obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I was quite happy with my locale and my call for here Nice storm for many many people. Now go out and play in it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You guus are going overboard. This was a 20-30 mile shift in which we said it have big implications. Lets not make it sound like it was a whiff. Snow amounts to the west worked out fairly well. Near CC got almost a foot. Did anyone really think 3" of QPF in 8 hrs was going to occur? I hope not. Because it was a narrow QPF area BOS got what Ray got etc and I was 15 miles from 10". It happens.... Hell the blizzard last year ticked east too, but nobody realizes that because it was such a widespread snow distribution. When you have a very narrow area of heavy QPF 20-30 miles is everything. i suspected that the feb storm ticked east bc it wasnt too far nw of my area where snow amounts began to lessen....i mean extreme nw ct, extreme wmass over by lenox and just n and nw of gc amounts quickly tappered to a foot or so.....all those areas including down to nyc and nnj to just south of alb were often in the 20 plus forecast range by a lot of models right up to game time....frankly the 20 plus amounts encompassed spfd to just n of noho on e and s . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You know..if you sit back and think about it..the last couple of weeks probably will end up one of the best 3 week snow stretches in all of our lives save for NNE. I mean snowstorms/events every other day or every 3 days, no temps above freezing, no cutters, no plain rain, no melting..Just continued assaults by snow allowing the plies and banks and depth to get up into phenomenal territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 omg..nyc again pulled off 2 to 4 in general....they can do no wrong lol....and that monomouth county in nj had up to almost six inches!!!! there have got to be towns there that are 300 pct of climo for the whole snow season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You know..if you sit back and think about it..the last couple of weeks probably will end up one of the best 3 week snow stretches in all of our lives save for NNE. I mean snowstorms/events every other day or every 3 days, no temps above freezing, no cutters, no plain rain, no melting..Just continued assaults by snow allowing the plies and banks and depth to get up into phenomenal territory I think the rain last week ruined that here, but it has been a good stretch. If Somehow i got over 4" Tuesday...it would be dam good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the rain last week ruined that here, but it has been a good stretch. If Somehow i got over 4" Tuesday...it would be dam good. Yeah, but really you only were like mid 30's for a few hours right? So little to no damage was done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 I think the rain last week ruined that here, but it has been a good stretch. If Somehow i got over 4" Tuesday...it would be dam good. not sure but I think NYC has a very good shot of breaking the snowiest 30 day period in their history set in 1949 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah, but really you only were like mid 30's for a few hours right? So little to no damage was done. Wonder what the pack total water is right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Wonder what the pack total water is right now http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah, but really you only were like mid 30's for a few hours right? So little to no damage was done. Yeah it compacted really..not melted down a lot. Probably have about 11-16" pack give or take from sun to shade I would say. Glacial though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Yeah it compacted really..not melted down a lot. Probably have about 11-16" pack give or take from sun to shade I would say. Glacial though. Bout 23 OTG here. I got a few spots in the back in total shade with more than that..but avg is 23" snowdepth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 You guus are going overboard. This was a 20-30 mile shift in which we said it have big implications. Lets not make it sound like it was a whiff. Snow amounts to the west worked out fairly well. Near CC got almost a foot. Did anyone really think 3" of QPF in 8 hrs was going to occur? I hope not. Because it was a narrow QPF area BOS got what Ray got etc and I was 15 miles from 10". It happens.... Hell the blizzard last year ticked east too, but nobody realizes that because it was such a widespread snow distribution. When you have a very narrow area of heavy QPF 20-30 miles is everything. It was a tough forecast...the storm ended up more "ragged" too aside form just being a bit east...though that is kind of to be expected...less phasing in with the neg tilt, and the storm isn't as well developed. We ended up with a more diffuse weaker precip shield which is why areas way out west like in CT and central MA didn't really bust in this event but areas in the east did...even the Cape didn't get the L.E.. I was out all afternoon and only got rudimentary looks at radar on Megan's phone...so when it was snowing decent aorund ORH and I was certain we'd reach advisory, I didn't notice the lack of very heavy snows in the east. Not until I got back later last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It did move east which was a concern, but the fact that the QPF shield was narrow seems like it jaded some into thinking the low was a big whiff. I got less than I hoped and it was obvious by late aftn, but hey....that's how it goes.The emotional tones in some posts yesterday were very obvious. Scott one station so far had Verified the overwhelming consensus of event start forecasts east of say the Plymouth county line to Chatham. The blizzard warning area that had boston getting 4"'and a ton of other spots getting well under the totals predicted in many cases by 50%. this was a large bust for an area forecast to receive 14-18 or more. It's not like that precip moved a little east....it ended up not happening because the models were too juiced, overdone, and as a result too far west despite a lot of insistence that they'd continue moving west or were fine. Most areas west of the canal got much less than expected in the "heavy" zone. This wasn't a blizzard it was a nice winter storm. It thought the signs were there for a bust low yesterday morning and said it. Congratulations Ginxy your area rose to the top and really proved me wrong on being negative yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It was a tough forecast...the storm ended up more "ragged" too aside form just being a bit east...though that is kind of to be expected...less phasing in with the neg tilt, and the storm isn't as well developed. We ended up with a more diffuse weaker precip shield which is why areas way out west like in CT and central MA didn't really bust in this event but areas in the east did...even the Cape didn't get the L.E.. I was out all afternoon and only got rudimentary looks at radar on Megan's phone...so when it was snowing decent aorund ORH and I was certain we'd reach advisory, I didn't notice the lack of very heavy snows in the east. Not until I got back later last night. Exactly.... The rgem was underdone but it was the least wild and if it was factored in with a model like the euro forecasts may have been better. Instead it was mostly discarded. It wasn't as amped and it was a bit more offshore I thought. Couple it with the euro and many times a good forecast is the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Scott one station so far had Verified the overwhelming consensus of event start forecasts east of say the Plymouth county line to Chatham. The blizzard warning area that had boston getting 4"'and a ton of other spots getting well under the totals predicted in many cases by 50%. this was a large bust for an area forecast to receive 14-18 or more. It's not like that precip moved a little east....it ended up not happening because the models were too juiced, overdone, and as a result too far west despite a lot of insistence that they'd continue moving west or were fine. Most areas west of the canal got much less than expected in the "heavy" zone. This wasn't a blizzard it was a nice winter storm. It thought the signs were there for a bust low yesterday morning and said it. Congratulations Ginxy your area rose to the top and really proved me wrong on being negative yesterday. You are missing the point about how detrimental shifts are regarding those relying on mid level fronto. The 14-18 seemed a little agressive to me anyways even with the perfect NAM. The NAM was a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Not a whiff, but I think its safe to say that it was a bust to some degree. Like Scott said, a run-of-the-mill moderate winter storm, that was advertised as a blizzard. My locale was a bust inside of a bust because I have continued my trend of doing poorer than those around me, who also underachieved. I just limped into the bottom of my 4-8" call that I know 80% of folks would have dubbed as "conservative" prior to the event. Did Boston sneak into my 6-10" range? I know that my 8-12" over se MA did well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Not a whiff, but I think its safe to say that it was a bust to some degree. Like Scott said, a run-of-the-mill moderate winter storm, that was advertised as a blizzard. My locale was a bust inside of a bust because I have continued my trend of doing poorer than those around me, who also underachieved. I just limped into the bottom of my 4-8" call that I know 80% of folks would have dubbed as "conservative" prior to the event. Did Boston sneak into my 6-10" range? I know that my 8-12" over se MA did well. Finished with 3.8" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 It was a tough forecast...the storm ended up more "ragged" too aside form just being a bit east...though that is kind of to be expected...less phasing in with the neg tilt, and the storm isn't as well developed. We ended up with a more diffuse weaker precip shield which is why areas way out west like in CT and central MA didn't really bust in this event but areas in the east did...even the Cape didn't get the L.E.. t. Will i am trying to Learn what happend that is all. Box discos from 445 and 645 both busted ...mets were fooled to a degree ...good ones...yes the gradient was right but as messenger said the models were TOO juiced...all of them. I pointed out what Barcolonic instability referenced "the eviscarated pwats over the Gulf Stream " in the wake of the HUGE size storm 36 hours prior doesnt this play a apart wether regarding less deepening or weaker atlantic inflow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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