Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some of us microanalyze every little detail and lose sight of the epicness of the storm that is about to bury them. Some of us need to look out the window during a pending blizzard and stop worrying about what other people think and enjoy their storm. I was out enjoying it the last 3 hours while you guys were starting at radars and models wishcasting the storm NW. It's snowing really hard here now but it's probably not the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I was out enjoying it the last 3 hours while you guys were starting at radars and models wishcasting the storm NW. It's snowing really hard here now but it's probably not the heaviest snow I've ever seen. How much have you received so far ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 I was out enjoying it the last 3 hours while you guys were starting at radars and models wishcasting the storm NW. It's snowing really hard here now but it's probably not the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Don't group me into a category that's the height of hypocrisy. Aren't you rebutting because you feel guilty about being grouped into the debbie category? And why would I be rooting this NW when I am sitting in Ryan's 9-15" portion of his map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This whole argument is absurd It is my snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How's that imaginary trend working out in far western areas? Here's my own personal rant. Some of you need to grow up and stop taking analysis of a storm - whether it's right or wrong - as a personal insult. You have the ability to ignore people and never see their posts. If you don't like what someone says perhaps consider ignoring it. Some here seem to have a difficult time detaching from their own back yards to view the larger picture in understanding that we're not all trying to take your snow away when we speak on the macro level. Naw, can't ignore you, your analysis can be some of the best on the board. But this is a snow lover's board, so when post after post is finding every reason for it not to snow in someone else's backyard, when you are getting a blizzard in yours...well, I think it starts to get under people's skin.You are entitled to say what you think is the reality of the unfolding situation, but you don't have to try to hammer it home to people who just don't have any incentive to think about anything but their own backyard. Just say your point and then let it be sometimes. I also think part of the issue today was that, right or wrong, you tend to hold the CMC in higher regard than others here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some of us microanalyze every little detail and lose sight of the epicness of the storm that is about to bury them. Some of us need to look out the window during a pending blizzard and stop worrying about what other people think and enjoy their storm. And others might want to stop being bossy and telling others how to think and feel. Or telling others to "just stop" or "stfu" when making valid analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Don't group me into a category that's the height of hypocrisy. Aren't you rebutting because you feel guilty about being grouped into the debbie category? And why would I be rooting this NW when I am sitting in Ryan's 9-15" portion of his map? I rebutted because I thought your comment sucked. Mainly as I said because during the entire 18z suite for the most part I was out enjoying the storm for 2 or 3 hours...you know doing exactly what you said. As far as you rooting about anything....don't take this the wrong way...I don't know where you are and it's not of tremendous interest to me. On the same token that would also mean no posts I've made in the last few days about this storm were directed at you or anyone else. It's a weather site where we talk about the weather. All day yesterday there were posts about a northwest trend, wagons west...season trend blah blah. It's not okay by you to counterpoint those when everything after that for the most part ticked a little east? Sure in the last stages models converged as they always do...but since the infamous 18z GFS run it's been wagons the other way. If it's not okay to point that out during a debate than like I said...exercise that ignore feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro came west every run..never went east..Not once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 At my girlfriends place in Plympton with generator ready if needed. This gonna be good! Got my Sams cold snap and flood light ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I rebutted because I thought your comment sucked. Mainly as I said because during the entire 18z suite for the most part I was out enjoying the storm for 2 or 3 hours...you know doing exactly what you said. As far as you rooting about anything....don't take this the wrong way...I don't know where you are and it's not of tremendous interest to me. On the same token that would also mean no posts I've made in the last few days about this storm were directed at you or anyone else. It's a weather site where we talk about the weather. All day yesterday there were posts about a northwest trend, wagons west...season trend blah blah. It's not okay by you to counterpoint those when everything after that for the most part ticked a little east? Sure in the last stages models converged as they always do...but since the infamous 18z GFS run it's been wagons the other way. If it's not okay to point that out during a debate than like I said...exercise that ignore feature. Okay...but on the other hand, all you've talked about today are ticks east. There is more to this storm to talk about than a last minute wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a tired old argument it's been a good winter for most all of us all the way down the coast. There's no denying the GFS chugged east with the .25/.5 lines each run and was likely victim to feedback in enhancing the vorticity too far north and as a result underdoing the banding. Other models were somewhat better, I think I said this morning I thought the edge of the heavier stuff would setup somewhere between Rte 24 and I95 and pivot NE to SW around Taunton. That's about where it is right now, if I'm wrong by 15 miles the analysis cost you nothing I for one do appreciate the analysis! Yes it has been a good winter, we could have certainly done worse. Everyone was jus saying "they deserve it", I just thought otherwise that's all. Congrats to that area though. Living close to the ocean is like living by a sword and dying by it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This whole argument is absurd It is my snow!! Well it is right now. It's all around me and no ones touching it! How's the drive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This whole argument is absurd It is my snow!! It is all mine!!!!! I'm addicted! Enjoy blueprint, nice new spot. I might make the 15 min walk down there at some point to enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Okay...but on the other hand, all you've talked about today are ticks east. There is more to this storm to talk about than a last minute wobble. If we're in the model/discussion thread and the most severe/western most model that was "leading the pack" yesterday keeps going east I don't think it's an invalid point to make mention. I think I made one mistaken post in the banter thread where you guys are free to discuss your weenies or westward wagons or whatever. The Euro did the same...and the NAM...and the RGEM and it was a noteworthy trend particularly if you're sitting in western MA or CT right now as they all continued to bunch the QPF along the boundaries. This was the major point of contention between the wider spread GFS and the others. I don't see where it's an issue to discuss and IMO part of the issue is that it may have affected you and therefore...didn't like the tick. You can bet if it went west by 5.6 miles were run it would have been mentioned 1000 times. People are really way too sensitive about snow, it's odd. I don't know where 99% of you live and I don't care, so at no time are my comments directed at anyone unless I specifically point it out. I really don't have time for the nonsense...I'm here because I like discussing the weather with some of these guys dating back to the early/mid 90s. I don't have time, nor do I care for the insanity of my snow/your snow nor do I worry about hurting someones feelings. Rarely have I been adamant about things this year, one was yesterday with the rain snow line and I don't think that was a bad thought it rained a lot further north earlier than people thought...and today when I thought the GFS had a feedback issue that had it spreading QPF too far west. Most of the time I just don't care enough any longer mainly because of crap like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The euro came west every run with qpf..Every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 If we're in the model/discussion thread and the most severe/western most model that was "leading the pack" yesterday keeps going east I don't think it's an invalid point to make mention. I think I made one mistaken post in the banter thread where you guys are free to discuss your weenies or westward wagons or whatever. The Euro did the same...and the NAM...and the RGEM and it was a noteworthy trend particularly if you're sitting in western MA or CT right now as they all continued to bunch the QPF along the boundaries. This was the major point of contention between the wider spread GFS and the others. I don't see where it's an issue to discuss and IMO part of the issue is that it may have affected you and therefore...didn't like the tick. You can bet if it went west by 5.6 miles were run it would have been mentioned 1000 times. People are really way too sensitive about snow, it's odd. I don't know where 99% of you live and I don't care, so at no time are my comments directed at anyone unless I specifically point it out. I really don't have time for the nonsense...I'm here because I like discussing the weather with some of these guys dating back to the early/mid 90s. I don't have time, nor do I care for the insanity of my snow/your snow nor do I worry about hurting someones feelings. Rarely have I been adamant about things this year, one was yesterday with the rain snow line and I don't think that was a bad thought it rained a lot further north earlier than people thought...and today when I thought the GFS had a feedback issue that had it spreading QPF too far west. Most of the time I just don't care enough any longer mainly because of crap like today. Seems unnecessarily antisocial but okay sure I get your point to each their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How's that imaginary trend working out in far western areas? Here's my own personal rant. Some of you need to grow up and stop taking analysis of a storm - whether it's right or wrong - as a personal insult. You have the ability to ignore people and never see their posts. If you don't like what someone says perhaps consider ignoring it. Some here seem to have a difficult time detaching from their own back yards to view the larger picture in understanding that we're not all trying to take your snow away when we speak on the macro level. BS you were banging the 12z RGEM which was horribly wrong on this one. You were wrong, happens to everyone. Western areas have not had their forecast change much. If anything places like ORH had their forecasts increased with the most recent cycles. I am not talking about mby or taking things personally, I'm just pointing out that you were being completely obsessive about a minor model wobble which is of almost no importance. This was never a storm for western MA. From what I remember only one GFS run got them into 0.5 and it was tossed by everyone as overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allenson Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Have fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The euro came west every run with qpf..Every run Actually, no it didn't. This is from Will earlier and you can flip through the panels on Wunderground for the last 2 (it may be too late for 3 runs) "Yea huge hit for eastern areas on 12z Euro...for us further west, it makes warning snows more unlikely...but we weren't look at monster totals anyway. More like the difference between 7" and 5"" Particularly like many other models it adjusted east on the western flanks...particularly compare the 9 and 15 hour panels with their 0z counterparts and look west of 95 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 And at 18 hours compared to h30 last night look across Maine, and the .5 line around ORH etc where will is speaking of. Better yet take a look at h21 on this run in Maine...vs last night..and tell me it came west. Stop thinking about YBY...I'm not talking about it, and I don't care about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 My perception of this storm is the GFS nailed it, and everything else has flailed away trying to catch up to it right until it was over our heads. Can't remember the GFS being this spot on in 7 years on this board and Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Actually, no it didn't. This is from Will earlier and you can flip through the panels on Wunderground for the last 2 (it may be too late for 3 runs) "Yea huge hit for eastern areas on 12z Euro...for us further west, it makes warning snows more unlikely...but we weren't look at monster totals anyway. More like the difference between 7" and 5"" Particularly like many other models it adjusted east on the western flanks...particularly compare the 9 and 15 hour panels with their 0z counterparts and look west of 95 http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=GFS&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0 And at 18 hours compared to h30 last night look across Maine, and the .5 line around ORH etc where will is speaking of. Better yet take a look at h21 on this run in Maine...vs last night..and tell me it came west. Stop thinking about YBY...I'm not talking about it, and I don't care about it. Scott..every post of yours..and i mean every one tries to look for ways to have other areas to your west especially somehow get screwed. You make veiled, masked comments about how qpf has cut off out west or how things will tic SE.. and how it looks bleak etc.etc..but try to make it look like you really aren't doing that. It's fine..everyone here knows the games .You do it with every storm..without fail. . That's your mantra . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BS you were banging the 12z RGEM which was horribly wrong on this one. You were wrong, happens to everyone. Western areas have not had their forecast change much. If anything places like ORH had their forecasts increased with the most recent cycles. I am not talking about mby or taking things personally, I'm just pointing out that you were being completely obsessive about a minor model wobble which is of almost no importance. This was never a storm for western MA. From what I remember only one GFS run got them into 0.5 and it was tossed by everyone as overdone. I thought the back edge of the heaviest banding would be back between 24 and 95. This storm will quite possibly come down to 10 or 15 miles for some...which does give consequence to every wobble or perceived trend. What I admire about people like you is how you come out of the wood work with analysis after an event is underway. If you're going to question something...step up and do it at the time, not 12 or 24 hours later. Or better yet use the ignore feature, you'll catch most meaningful posts as people quote them anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Scott..every post of yours..and i mean every one tries to look for ways to have other areas to your west especially somehow get screwed. You make veiled, masked comments about how qpf has cut off out west or how things will tic SE.. and how it looks bleak etc.etc..but try to make it look like you really aren't doing that. It's fine..everyone here knows the games .You do it with every storm..without fail. . That's your mantra . And you think every storm is going to bring you ten feet but that's cheered. We know how accurate that was with the spreadsheet earlier this year. You were wrong about the 12z Euro btw.... If you guys have a problem with it challenge it at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Fwiw box is going with models that are more aggressive with north west push of 7h warm front in 445 disco Scott dont take the bait , you are getting a damn memorable blizzard, i would give $$ to be in ur spot tonite , this is a special storm Read the box disco 445 pm. 3-4/hr rates from 10pm -2 am. Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Have fun! are those the lion dudes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And you think every storm is going to bring you ten feet but that's cheered. We know how accurate that was with the spreadsheet earlier this year. You were wrong about the 12z Euro btw.... If you guys have a problem with it challenge it at the time. you're right..You always are.Ok man. Have a good night and enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I thought the back edge of the heaviest banding would be back between 24 and 95. This storm will quite possibly come down to 10 or 15 miles for some...which does give consequence to every wobble or perceived trend. What I admire about people like you is how you come out of the wood work with analysis after an event is underway. If you're going to question something...step up and do it at the time, not 12 or 24 hours later. Or better yet use the ignore feature, you'll catch most meaningful posts as people quote them anyway. It seems to me the NAM has been running behind on trends so far with this storm. I mean recall that the 6z run basically had us smoking cirrus and now we just get kissed by a very compact CCB for a few hours before it heads onward. I'm thinking ORH is probably getting kissed by the CCB once it comes verification time, and BOS gets more into the meat of that CCB based on trends in global guidance. Just my take based on how all the latest runs have been moving around. This was my analysis 26 hours ago and looks to be spot on. Almost perfect. The problem with refuting someone super-pessimistic is that no matter how you word it, unless you are a met you will come across as a weenie. Will and Scott (coastal) made some great rebuttals to your points by stating they were inconsequential wobbles and that you were going over board with the SE stuff. I felt there wasn't more that needed to be said, I didn't want to pile on after they had made those comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 you're right..You always are.Ok man. Have a good night and enjoy the storm. 99% of the time he is and 99% of the time he does not care about us or specifically our locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This was my analysis 26 hours ago and looks to be spot on. Almost perfect. The problem with refuting someone super-pessimistic is that no matter how you word it, unless you are a met you will come across as a weenie. Will and Scott (coastal) made some great rebuttals to your points by stating they were inconsequential wobbles and that you were going over board with the SE stuff. I felt there wasn't more that needed to be said, I didn't want to pile on after they had made those comments. Scott just said the RAP blows because it was too far NW and he was thinking the best stays south of GHG. If that's the case was the 20 mile wobble consequential to Boston proper? It's all hindsight of course and we don't know yet what is going to happen. it's possible Will gets kissed with the CCB, we'll see in a few hours. When you have a 20-40 mile difference between 2.2" and .4" on the models every wobble IS consequential particularly if the wobbles occur in the same direction for a few runs in close. JMHO Matt you won't hurt my feelings if you refute something nor will I ever snap back....and it's good for the debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 you're right..You always are.Ok man. Have a good night and enjoy the storm. You guys don't want to be watching Pete Bouchard right now....you'd all think he had a mantra. You and I are polar opposites. I think I supported or attempted to support what I said in the last 24 hours. If I'm wrong as I said I'm wrong. What you failed to mention is what you perceived as a mantra...for the last 3 storms was far more accurate than the consensus forecasts that were far too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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