weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thread for 2/18 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42906-21814-snow-event/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 This looks more and more pedestrian NW of a Kevin ORH line to me looking at current trends, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just want to get this off my chest. There's a handful of folks that are masking overt and unrealistic pessimism and latching onto the worst modeled outcome which incidentally is from some of the worst performing models and try to mask it as being "objective". It's terrible analysis. That is all. And this isn't being "pro-snow" or "anti-snow". It seems some have a crazy neurosis about everything going wrong and they beat a dead horse with their worries by focusing on imaginary trends when reality is pretty obvious based on the best performing models as well as radar and current obs. Sorry for the rant. If I've always thought that constant pessimism is just as bad as eternal optimism (wish casting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If I've always thought that constant pessimism is just as bad as eternal optimism (wish casting) Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Agree. I think its worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think its worse.Especially from posters who are about to get a 2' blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Especially from posters who are about to get a 2' blizzard. I won't name, names Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I won't name, namesNo, no, I was just saying in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think its worse. It can definitely make the whole analysis discussions a bit misleading, you see a flurry of posts essentially alluding to the event being over when in reality, while there are changes, they're nowhere near as bearishly dramatic as some posts would make you think. I also feel like turbo-pessimism gets corrected less than wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Ok just a general statement: optimism beats the crap out of pessimism any day. I'd rather be hopeful than depressed, regardless of the situation or context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You gotta be optomistic wrt radar over Long Island being so juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I know every style of individual posters in the SNE forum. The very optimistic dubbed *weenie* to the *debbies* And with each some you tend to listen to listen to more. I don't have a problem with any of it because if everyone had the same attitude, outlook, why post? Many times forecasts bust. We post not having to deal with life threatening threats. Leave that to the NWS. Just have fun and enjoy. Shear pin replaced FTW! BRING IT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I know every style of individual posters in the SNE forum. The very optimistic dubbed *weenie* to the *debbies* And with each some you tend to listen to listen to more. I don't have a problem with any of it because if everyone had the same attitude, outlook, why post? Many times forecasts bust. We post not having to deal with life threatening threats. Leave that to the NWS. Just have fun and enjoy. Shear pin replaced FTW! BRING IT! Lol did you test it? Not to be a Debbie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just want to get this off my chest. There's a handful of folks that are masking overt and unrealistic pessimism and latching onto the worst modeled outcome which incidentally is from some of the worst performing models and try to mask it as being "objective". It's terrible analysis. That is all. And this isn't being "pro-snow" or "anti-snow". It seems some have a crazy neurosis about everything going wrong and they beat a dead horse with their worries by focusing on imaginary trends when reality is pretty obvious based on the best performing models as well as radar and current obs. Sorry for the rant. Just want to get this off my chest. There's a handful of folks that are masking overt and unrealistic weenieism and latching onto the best modeled outcome which incidentally is from some of the worst performing models and try to mask it as being "objective". It's terrible analysis. That is all. And this isn't being "pro-snow" or "anti-snow". It seems some have a crazy neurosis about everything going perfectly dandy and they beat a dead horse with their wishcasts by focusing on imaginary trends when reality is pretty obvious based on the best performing models as well as radar and current obs. Sorry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yes...Thank-you JC. Would not have stated if not a success. Fear of reprisal from Ginx. You know what they say about payback... Now as much as I don't want to I'm taking some Muscle relaxers and pain killers...off to la-la fruitville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Oh how I hate this. Im starving and the candy bar is just out of my reach. Few flakes here while just to my SE get crushed. Very aggravating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yes...Thank-you JC. Would not have stated if not a success. Fear of reprisal from Ginx. You know what they say about payback... Now as much as I don't want to I'm taking some Muscle relaxers and pain killers...off to la-la fruitville. Good lol, don't want Steve calling you a hen. Glad you can enjoy the dumpage you are getting without worrying about shoveling out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 152004Z - 160200Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..COHEN.. 02/15/2014 ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41067154 41067221 42707129 44047012 45226840 45306737 44796708 44486752 44066860 43686981 43217038 42507057 42227056 42057033 42107017 41906994 41576998 41347044 41067154 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Come to think of it this bad boy could have an eye on satellite. SPC analysis- bombs away, surface temps to the E has 60-65°F. Warm air seclusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Man.....cod fisherman melted lately. Get some sleep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Box has me in their 10-14" zone and under a blizzard warning. Maybe more snow Tuesday and a reload in sights? Loving it. Still don't think anything coming beats the 18" mauling I got on 1/2-3 storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Man.....cod fisherman melted lately. Get some sleep! I never understand that type of thing. It's not personal, it's the weather....what can you do, jeez? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Much drama in here today? I have a favor to ask people If you get some amazing bands, please video them and post them here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Does Phil just never post anymore? New job..The board was just too much for him to participate in with his new role Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nothing better than a snowy Sat with a Sam Cold Snap, watching quite possibly one of the best concerts ever Foo Fighters from Wembley 2008, life is good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just want to get this off my chest. There's a handful of folks that are masking overt and unrealistic pessimism and latching onto the worst modeled outcome which incidentally is from some of the worst performing models and try to mask it as being "objective". It's terrible analysis. That is all. And this isn't being "pro-snow" or "anti-snow". It seems some have a crazy neurosis about everything going wrong and they beat a dead horse with their worries by focusing on imaginary trends when reality is pretty obvious based on the best performing models as well as radar and current obs. Sorry for the rant. How's that imaginary trend working out in far western areas? Here's my own personal rant. Some of you need to grow up and stop taking analysis of a storm - whether it's right or wrong - as a personal insult. You have the ability to ignore people and never see their posts. If you don't like what someone says perhaps consider ignoring it. Some here seem to have a difficult time detaching from their own back yards to view the larger picture in understanding that we're not all trying to take your snow away when we speak on the macro level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think people should feel the SEMA folks deserve this after the last storm, they had all the storms prior! But good for them I suppose I'm just jealous but glad I'm getting something at all. 28 here and moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 How's that imaginary trend working out in far western areas? Here's my own personal rant. Some of you need to grow up and stop taking analysis of a storm - whether it's right or wrong - as a personal insult. You have the ability to ignore people and never see their posts. If you don't like what someone says perhaps consider ignoring it. Some here seem to have a difficult time detaching from their own back yards to view the larger picture in understanding that we're not all trying to take your snow away when we speak on the macro level. Some of us microanalyze every little detail and lose sight of the epicness of the storm that is about to bury them. Some of us need to look out the window during a pending blizzard and stop worrying about what other people think and enjoy their storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think people should feel the SEMA folks deserve this after the last storm, they had all the storms prior! But good for them I suppose I'm just jealous but glad I'm getting something at all. 28 here and moderate snow That's a tired old argument it's been a good winter for most all of us all the way down the coast. There's no denying the GFS chugged east with the .25/.5 lines each run and was likely victim to feedback in enhancing the vorticity too far north and as a result underdoing the banding. Other models were somewhat better, I think I said this morning I thought the edge of the heavier stuff would setup somewhere between Rte 24 and I95 and pivot NE to SW around Taunton. That's about where it is right now, if I'm wrong by 15 miles the analysis cost you nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think people should feel the SEMA folks deserve this after the last storm, they had all the storms prior! But good for them I suppose I'm just jealous but glad I'm getting something at all. 28 here and moderate snow Not jealous at all here. Mod snow. 16-22" OTG. 2" new and building Heading to Blueprint for dinner in an hour. Roads are yucky Olympics on. Kids are staying in Taunton during a near blizzard. SE peeps getting crushed. Vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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