2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco

[Hoosier]

If it is a pole snapping on its own you are probably talking in the 75+ range then.

 

That's why I was asking.  Normally it takes winds AOA 100 mph to blow those over unless something came into play such as a tree, although other damage in the immediate area would obviously need to be taken into account when coming up with an estimated wind speed.

[aurora]

What's going on in this pic?  Did that pole snap/blow over on its own or did a tree take it down?

 

I'm not 100% certain, but I would say it's likely that it blew over on its own, for two reasons:

 

1) There were/are no fully mature trees in the area. Unfortunately, the most recent Google StreetView update for the area is from 5 years ago, but you can get an idea right here: http://goo.gl/maps/cQ55R The pole that went down is in the center, note how much bigger the pole is than the trees there.

 

2) There was another pole down on a car just a bit further north. I didn't get a great picture here because there were downed lines all over the place and I wasn't gonna mess with that, but you can get the idea below. (And here's a StreetView of that pole: http://goo.gl/maps/iiiw0)

 

[michsnowfreak]

this was in DTX's writeup on Saturday nights event. This was taken in Oxford. Just INSANE

[Chicago Storm]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

..NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/13/14 TORNADO EVENT


OVERVIEW
A SEMI-ISOLATED STORM ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A LARGER THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX PRODUCED A BRIEF TORNADO.

LONE TREE TORNADO

RATING: EF-0
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 65 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 1 MILE
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 25 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: APRIL 13...2014
START TIME: 5:56 PM CDT
START LOCATION: .5 MILES WEST OF LONE TREE / JOHNSON COUNTY / IA
START LAT/LON: 41.4880 / -91.4437

END DATE: APRIL 13...2014
END TIME: 5:58 PM CDT
END LOCATION: .5 MILES NORTH OF LONE TREE / JOHNSON COUNTY / IA
END LAT/LON: 41.5039 / -91.4301

SURVEY SUMMARY: A TEAM FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES
FORECAST OFFICE SURVEYED THE AREA AROUND LONE TREE LATE THIS MORNING. NO
DAMAGE WAS FOUND. PATH IS ESTIMATED FROM WITNESSES AND RADAR. SEVERAL
WITNESSES DESCRIBED A FUNNEL THAT WENT UP AND DOWN NUMEROUS TIMES. PHOTO
AND VIDEO DOCUMENTATION SHOW THAT THE TORNADO DID TOUCH DOWN AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF TOWN. 

[dmc76]

LOL. Nature says road is closed!

 

[harrisale]

Mid-late period of next week seems like a good window for some severe weather across the region, as a central CONUS low brings Gulf moisture north. Capping may be an issue with the system until Thursday as an elevated warm layer cools and allows more widespread convection to occur. Prior to Thursday some regions of higher instability may be able to poke through and produce some good storms.

 

12Z GFS verbatim, 65 dews and a 40-45kt LLJ jet moving into lower Michigan could make things interesting in that region on Thursday afternoon, as well as southwestern Ontario.

 

Sidenote: Its all pretty far out there, but I'll be leaving ON for the summer so I'll be obsessing over this last possible chase opportunity for the next week. Don't mind me

[Hoosier]

Not seeing any obvious high-end threat right now but that could change.  Should be multiple days with something.

[harrisale]

Not seeing any obvious high-end threat right now but that could change.  Should be multiple days with something.

 

Yes, trough digs deep enough to provide a few good days of moisture return but the overall jet dynamics aren't too impressive. We'll see how things trend over the coming days.

[Stebo]

Not seeing any obvious high-end threat right now but that could change.  Should be multiple days with something.

 

I could see a decent couple of days, nothing mind blowing but still solid days for the region. SPC also watching the area for further risks as well:

 

  SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SEEMS LIKELY TO FURTHER INCREASE ACROSS   BROADER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST DAY   7/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. WHILE 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES COULD   ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED AROUND THIS TIME FRAME...GUIDANCE   VARIABILITY/MODEST PREDICTABILITY PRECLUDES ANY SUCH SEVERE RISK   AREAS AT THIS TIME.

[RCNYILWX]

I could see a decent couple of days, nothing mind blowing but still solid days for the region. SPC also watching the area for further risks as well:

The GFS continues to be more impressive with maintaining strength of sfc low and has stronger midlevel flow later next week but both Euro and GFS have pronounced LLJ and indicate advection of EML over region. Resultant steepmidlevel lapse rates and support for dewpoints possibly surging into 60s for parts of subforum will yield moderate to high CAPE values.

So overall, agreed with your thoughts and Hoosier. There will be capping questions in warm sector until better forcing arrives. Wednesday could be interesting if upper suppprt is there because it appears warm front could still be relatively far south/over northern IL.

[cyclone77]

Wed looking a little iffy to me due to weaker mid-levels, and moisture quality issues.  Some models show 60+ dews arriving on Wed, but you gotta wonder if that will scale back a little as we get closer.  Moisture depth would probably still be shallow at that point anyway.

 

Thu is starting to look pretty nice, with better established moisture, and much better support in the mid and upper levels.  Euro shows a 85kt+ upper jet nosing into Iowa by later in the day on Thursday. 

[RCNYILWX]

Wed looking a little iffy to me due to weaker mid-levels, and moisture quality issues. Some models show 60+ dews arriving on Wed, but you gotta wonder if that will scale back a little as we get closer. Moisture depth would probably still be shallow at that point anyway.

Thu is starting to look pretty nice, with better established moisture, and much better support in the mid and upper levels. Euro shows a 85kt+ upper jet nosing into Iowa by later in the day on Thursday.

Just one run and it's the 18z operational GFS, but hour 240 would be an impressive severe weather setup for the region. Fun to look at as a fantasyland prog.

[OSUmetstud]

Just one run and it's the 18z operational GFS, but hour 240 would be an impressive severe weather setup for the region. Fun to look at as a fantasyland prog.

really random I was just looking at that.  Classic synoptic set up for a midwest outbreak.  

[Hoosier]

Just one run and it's the 18z operational GFS, but hour 240 would be an impressive severe weather setup for the region. Fun to look at as a fantasyland prog.

 

 

Wow, that looks quite impressive...and of course it shows up on the run right after I said no higher end potential is evident. 

[Stebo]

Wow, that looks quite impressive...and of course it shows up on the run right after I said no higher end potential is evident. 

 

Yeah, please keep mentioning it

[cyclone77]

Yeah that 18z GFS would be a Mother's Day outbreak to be sure.  Too bad it's 10 days off lol.  Always fun to look at though.

[nwburbschaser]

Yeah that 18z GFS would be a Mother's Day outbreak to be sure.  Too bad it's 10 days off lol.  Always fun to look at though.

00z GFS thinks we would be better with an East Coast trough and maybe an Omega Block to top it all off. 

[Minnesota Meso]

00z GFS thinks we would be better with an East Coast trough and maybe an Omega Block to top it all off. 

 

A winter time eastern US trough in the long term......say it aint so.......NOooooooooo!!!!!      I think its smoking something, or is it on to something?

[Minnesota Meso]

A winter time eastern US trough in the long term......say it aint so.......NOooooooooo!!!!!      I think its smoking something, or is it on to something?

It may not be as far fetched as I thought....look at the strong Northwest flow at h240 from the gem on the 05/02/0z run.  Be warned hot link.

 

with a strong ridge over the West.

[hm8]

 

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

0400 AM CDT SAT MAY 03 2014  

 

VALID 061200Z - 111200Z  

   

..DISCUSSION  

 

DETERMINISTIC MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS /PRIMARILY THE GFS AND ECMWF/ HAVE  

COME INTO SOMEWHAT CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE  

WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AS IT EJECTS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS  

THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. STILL HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES WHICH  

PERSIST -- PARTICULARLY FROM ROUGHLY DAY 6 ONWARD -- ARE EVEN MORE  

PRONOUNCED WITHIN MREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. AS A RESULT OF THESE  

FACTORS...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY CONCERNS LINGER WITH THE  

LARGE-SCALE PATTERN.  

 

WITH THAT BEING SAID...ENOUGH SIMILARITY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF  

EXISTS THROUGH DAY 6 SUCH THAT A FORECAST OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL  

WITH A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE CAN BE MADE. ATTM...IT  

APPEARS THAT A SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS  

THROUGH MIDWEEK /I.E. DAYS 4-5/...WHILE PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF  

MOISTURE SPREADS NWD. THE DEGREE OF MOISTENING HOWEVER APPEARS  

UNLIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT -- GIVEN WARMTH OF THE EML ABOVE THE  

BOUNDARY LAYER AND LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV -- TO SUPPORT  

ANY MORE THAN ISOLATED AFTERNOON WARM-SECTOR CONVECTION.  

INSTEAD...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITHIN A  

WARM-ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT -- I.E. ACROSS THE UPPER  

MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE SOME RISK  

FOR LARGE HAIL MAY EXIST...RISK DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT AREAL  

INCLUSION ATTM.  

 

AS MODELS BRING THE UPPER TROUGH EWD INTO THE PLAINS DAY 6 /THU 5-8/  

HOWEVER...MORE COMPLETELY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO  

HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PERMITTING DEVELOPMENT OF MORE  

SUBSTANTIAL CAPE. AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS NEWD ALLOWING A  

TRAILING FRONTAL ADVANCE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS  

VICINITY...DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SURFACE-BASED STORMS APPEARS  

LIKELY. WITH THE GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE SHEAR AND  

MODERATE CAPE LIKELY TO EXIST FROM ROUGHLY OK NEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IA  

AND INTO IL AND SRN WI...IT APPEARS THAT INCLUSION OF A 30  

PERCENT-EQUIVALENT RISK AREA CAN BE INTRODUCED ATTM WITH MODERATE  

CONFIDENCE...WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ALONG WITH SOME TORNADO  

POTENTIAL.  

 

BEYOND DAY 6...DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO  

PRECLUDE CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  

 

[cyclone77]

lol @ 12z GFS showing 70 degree dews over southeast IA/western IL late Wed.  I'll believe that when I see it.

 

GFS shows a decent setup now for Illinois (especially the east half) and Indiana on Friday.  Euro is quicker with both the Thu and Fri setup. 

 

Still some disagreement with the timing of things, but it looks like the Thu/Fri period should be active somewhere in the sub. 

[Hoosier]

lol @ 12z GFS showing 70 degree dews over southeast IA/western IL late Wed.  I'll believe that when I see it.

 

GFS shows a decent setup now for Illinois (especially the east half) and Indiana on Friday.  Euro is quicker with both the Thu and Fri setup. 

 

Still some disagreement with the timing of things, but it looks like the Thu/Fri period should be active somewhere in the sub. 

 

 

Don't underestimate that prolific early May evapotranspiration. 

[cyclone77]

Thursday looks kind of messy now on both the GFS and especially the Euro.  Both generate precip late Wed night and Thu morning over the warm sector, which will spray clouds all over the warm sector muddling the instability potential.  Looking like the short-wave is ill-timed for this setup.  Too late to help the Wed setup over the Plains, and too early for the Thu setup, which causes the morning crapvection.

[Hoosier]

Thursday looks kind of messy now on both the GFS and especially the Euro.  Both generate precip late Wed night and Thu morning over the warm sector, which will spray clouds all over the warm sector muddling the instability potential.  Looking like the short-wave is ill-timed for this setup.  Too late to help the Wed setup over the Plains, and too early for the Thu setup, which causes the morning crapvection.

 

 

To build on that, the timing looks poor here with convection currently progged to roll through overnight Thursday into Friday.  Surface low is progged to deepen some and wind fields look strong but normally I'd like to see a bombing surface low with better moisture transport to entertain the idea of anything more than an isolated/marginal severe threat continuing well overnight.  If things slow down then it's possible that Friday could be in play but we'll see.

[Hoosier]

Once we get past the late week threat, it looks like another system worth watching for next week.

[andyhb]

This period here is intriguing from the Euro EPS mean, especially given that at least seasonable moisture return is expected by this time across the Central US.

 

[Hoosier]

Slight risk for day 3 and a risk area still present for day 4 on latest SPC outlooks.

[hm8]

FWIW: The 2014 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment began today...not much has rolled out yet but at http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2014/ you'll be able to find all of the juicy hi-res models they'll be running. If you're into that kinda thing.

[A-L-E-K]

FWIW: The 2014 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment began today...not much has rolled out yet but at http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2014/se2014_svrforecasts.php you'll be able to find all of the juicy hi-res models they'll be running. If you're into that kinda thing.

 

 

thanks

[hm8]

FWIW: The 2014 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment began today...not much has rolled out yet but at http://hwt.nssl.noaa.gov/Spring_2014/ you'll be able to find all of the juicy hi-res models they'll be running. If you're into that kinda thing.

 

Link was wrong before. fixed