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2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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A tiny bit off topic but Google Maps updated its satellite view recently over Washington IL. Some incredible overlooking views of the damage, and then there is this https://maps.google.com/?ll=40.725568,-89.40455&spn=0.018766,0.027595&t=h&z=15 . You can see where the tornado went into the field northeast of the town and you can see where the individual vortices rotated around the parent circulation, just incredible imagery.

That's pretty awesome from a Meteorological stand point.  Thanks for sharing!

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A tiny bit off topic but Google Maps updated its satellite view recently over Washington IL. Some incredible overlooking views of the damage, and then there is this https://maps.google.com/?ll=40.725568,-89.40455&spn=0.018766,0.027595&t=h&z=15 . You can see where the tornado went into the field northeast of the town and you can see where the individual vortices rotated around the parent circulation, just incredible imagery.

 

That's pretty nuts, can see the wind rowing in some areas, especially crossing Wellington Drive.

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  • 1 month later...

The key thing I'm noticing is the development of the eastern ULL around 72-120 hrs happens too late to cut off most of the return flow from the western Gulf of Mexico, this should ensure there is at least some instability available over some part of the central US when the trough ejects around this time next week.

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Pattern looks like it may become increasingly supportive of severe weather in a portion of the subforum toward the middle of next week. 

Yeah the Euro was pretty incredible for the midweek system for next week. My interest is also what is behind it, I think that could be a bigger show for 10-15 days from now.

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I think that could be a bigger show for 10-15 days from now.

Seeing a pretty good signal in that range with the new 12z Euro ensembles right now. That Pacific trough on the heels of next weeks system digs deep into the southern Plains with ridging in the East. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

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Seeing a pretty good signal in that range with the new 12z Euro ensembles right now. That Pacific trough on the heels of next weeks system digs deep into the southern Plains with ridging in the East. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

 

Yeah the Euro had 110kt at 500mb and 170-180kt at 300mb diving into the backside of that later trough, those would be incredible kinematics for a winter storm let alone a spring storm.

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  • 2 weeks later...

bump.

 

See text/slight risk-type event likely on Sun/Mon.

I wouldn't sleep on Saturday with the warm front either, there is a see text for parts of the region already as well. Could be modestly interesting when originally this weekend had no convective chances.

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It will be interesting to see how things evolve as that weak area of low pressure moves along the front Saturday morning. Still not confident we reach the instability shown on the NAM, given the possible clouds.

 

Edit: It doesn't help that the NAM shows dew points approaching 60, which probably won't happen.

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It will be interesting to see how things evolve as that weak area of low pressure moves along the front Saturday morning. Still not confident we reach the instability shown on the NAM, given the possible clouds.

 

Edit: It doesn't help that the NAM shows dew points approaching 60, which probably won't happen.

GFS also has dew points near to slightly above 60.

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Surprised by the new day 2 outlook.  I think you could easily make a case for a see text/slight risk extending farther east unless I'm missing something.

New Day 2 shifted considerably east along the warm front. They make mention of all severe modes initially before the winds become parallel to the front. That last part actually leads to another issue, there is going to be a heavy rain issue with this system as well, we very well could see some training of storms from Saturday evening and into Sunday. Models are showing some places getting 2-3" of rain with this event.

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New Day 2 shifted considerably east along the warm front. They make mention of all severe modes initially before the winds become parallel to the front. That last part actually leads to another issue, there is going to be a heavy rain issue with this system as well, we very well could see some training of storms from Saturday evening and into Sunday. Models are showing some places getting 2-3" of rain with this event.

The disco is pretty much a carbon copy of what the 4KM NAM shows.

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New Day 2 shifted considerably east along the warm front. They make mention of all severe modes initially before the winds become parallel to the front. That last part actually leads to another issue, there is going to be a heavy rain issue with this system as well, we very well could see some training of storms from Saturday evening and into Sunday. Models are showing some places getting 2-3" of rain with this event.

Kind of like where I sit right now.  Hopefully this area will see some decent t-storm action late Saturday and Sunday.  Though severe should be further west like the Day 2 shows.

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A morning severe warning in Northwest Illinois today:

 

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
STEPHENSON AND JO DAVIESS COUNTIES UNTIL 930 AM CDT...

AT 838 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SCHAPVILLE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SCALES MOUND...SCHAPVILLE...WOODBINE...APPLE RIVER...WARREN...NORA...
LENA...WINSLOW...APPLE CANYON LAKE...APPLE RIVER CANYON STATE PARK...
WADDAMS GROVE...LAKE LEAQUANA STATE PARK...MC CONNELL...BUENA
VISTA...ONECO AND ORANGEVILLE.

 

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