OHweather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Originally I was thinking more along the lines that the second piece would be the one that would be the significant potential, similar to the GFS before tonight's run. Problem is, what looked to have some sort of a model consensus has completely gone awry. Even the GFS tonight shows better ridging off the west coast and a better trough over the west for the weekend or second piece, but it just looks like a mess with a few pieces of energy in the trough with no one piece becoming dominant. The s/w in question looks pretty strong though on the Euro and it goes ape with a pronounced negative tilt by 144 hours. In some ways these types of setups have the potential to be more dangerous...for one, a more meridional trough would likely lead to really crappy mid level lapse rates across the warm sector. Euro consistency has been impressive but still a little early to bank on it. You're certainly right. Comparing 500mb height/vorticity maps, the Euro really digs a STJ (I think) s/w Wednesday into Wednesday night and shows it phasing with the northern shortwave on Thursday. If that happens a strong storm is certainly on the table. What kind of gives me pause here is the Euro is the only 0z op model that digs that piece of energy so far south. The GFS/GEM/UK all show a pretty potent northern stream shortwave but don't dig that other piece of energy so far south. The free maps don't show it all that well, but even at 120, the Euro has a decent piece of energy over the four corners, while the other 3 op models don't really have anything there. If it was an issue of the other models showed the energy but simply missed the phase I may be more optimistic about buying into the Euro. We'll see, the Euro may still be right regardless. It's a relatively small piece of energy somewhere over the Northern Pacific right now, any modeled solution is just as likely to be right as any other with the handling of a little piece of energy like that. If the Euro is right the potential for a pretty high end outbreak is on the table. The model suggests lower 70's and 60+ dew points to the Ohio River with insane wind fields, and we've seen what that combo can do already this cold season. But before I get flack for saying that, I did just spend the majority of this post explaining why I'm skeptical of a Euro type solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GRR's take on the potential for Thursday LEANING ON THE ECMWF GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS IT HAS HAD THE MOSTCONTINUITY THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. WPC AGREES IF YOU READ THROUGH THEEXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION PMDEPD.TWO MAIN ITEMS IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEMOVING OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE WARM UP AND RAINFOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.RAIN SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON STRENGTHENINGSOUTHERLY FLOW. CAN SEE SOME MIX WITH SNOW IN THE NORTH EARLYON...BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK CHANGEOVERTO RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A VERY DEEP LOWMOVES NORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. THIS LOW AT ITS PRESENT STATE IN THEECMWF GUIDANCE WILL RIVAL DEEP FALL SYSTEMS. EXPECT STRONG WINDSAREA WIDE AS THE LOW DEEPENS THROUGH THE 970/S MB/S AS IT MOVESNORTH THROUGH WISCONSIN. 850MB LLJ THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE PUSHING70 KNOTS...WITH 850MB LI/S DROPPING INTO THE -2 TO -4 C RANGE.THUNDER IS VERY PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS ONTHURSDAY WILL REACH THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH 50S LOOKING MOREAND MORE LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.HYDRO CONCERNS REMAIN HIGH FOR THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME...BUT THEWARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH A RETURN MORE TOWARD NORMAL FORFRIDAY AS WE DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM. FOG WILL BE LIKELYTHURSDAY GIVEN THE WARM AIR RIDING OVER THE SNOW PACK. One thing to watch outside of thunderstorms, would be strong winds in the region if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I am honestly surprised how far apart the GFS and the Euro are right now, I mean it is like they are modeling 2 completely different atmospheres. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Good convective outlook discussion from SPC today Sat. for this upcoming system. At least they are not saying "potential too low." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Score one for the GFS in the preliminary rounds today? I no longer see a big 988 MB low pressure passing through Kansas on the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah the 12z Euro bailed. Much flatter look aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The GFS isn't threatening verbatim but it did shift a bit slower/more amplified for Thursday. If it keeps making those moves on future runs then we'll at least have some severe threat in part of the region. Wind fields still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z Euro sorta looks like it tried to trend back toward the original solution but didn't quite get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 00z Euro sorta looks like it tried to trend back toward the original solution but didn't quite get there. Better than 12z run that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Day 5 area outlined. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0358 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2014VALID 191200Z - 241200Z...DISCUSSION...RECENT MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL RUNS SHOW GOOD CONSISTENCY/SIMILARITYTHROUGH ROUGHLY DAY 6/FRI. 2-21/...WITH A LARGE TROUGH PROGGED TOEVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME -- AND THEN PERSIST THEREUNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD.INITIALLY...SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING IS PROGGED TO DIG ESEWD ACROSS THEROCKIES DAY 4...EMERGING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE START OF DAY5. AS THIS OCCURS...MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A DEVELOPING SURFACELOW SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE OK VICINITY EARLY TO THE MI VICINITY BYLATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A STRONG/TRAILING COLD FRONTEXTENDING SWWD ACROSS THE OH/MID MS VALLEYS AND INTO TX WILL LIKELYFOCUS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS HIGHER THETA-E AIRADVECTING NWD SUPPORTS MODEST SURFACE-BASED CAPE.ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED NOF THE OH VALLEY...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY LIKELY REMAINSLIMITED TO AREAS FROM THE SRN IL/SRN INDIANA REGION SWD. THUS...THEZONE OF GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION -- FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY SWDACROSS THE MID MS/TN VALLEYS -- APPEARS TO BE THE ZONE WHERE SEVERERISK WILL BE MAXIMIZED.GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE VARIOUSMODELS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS...THE ASSOCIATED STRENGTH OF THEWIND FIELD...AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST INTO THE 50S ACROSS THEAFOREMENTIONED AREA SUPPORTING AT LEAST MARGINAL SURFACE-BASEDCAPE...THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS SUFFICIENT WITH THEEXPECTED CONVECTIVE LINE TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF A RISK AREA THISFORECAST -- MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY ENEWD INTO SERNCANADA AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION OVERNIGHT...CONVECTIVE RISKDAY 6 WILL BE CONFINED TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTEXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO THE WRN GULF. WITHWEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...SEVERE RISK ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULDREMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED. BEYOND DAY 6...INCREASING UNCERTAINTYLIMITS CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTIVEPOTENTIAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 A little surprised they already pulled the trigger given instability questions, but dynamics do look pretty impressive. At least the timing issues are basically resolved and we know it should be a Thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 12z GFS for today confirms SPC's earlier thinking for target area for possible svr for Thursday if it holds in subsequent runs. Not looking forward to rain and sudden melt up here in Michiana. If SLP intensifies in further runs this week or if the Euro goes back to an earlier solution things could get really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Forecast CAPE looks terrible on the GFS. Not like we haven't seen that before though, only to turn out to be underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 Forecast CAPE looks terrible on the GFS. Not like we haven't seen that before though, only to turn out to be underdone. Yeah, the ongoing caveat of late winter/early spring set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 16, 2014 Share Posted February 16, 2014 The risk area looks a bit too west, but i heard with the melting snowpack all over the region, it could add to the instability, with a high moisture content Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Scary looking shear on the 00z GFS. If temps/dewpoints can climb higher, look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Scary looking shear on the 00z GFS. If temps/dewpoints can climb higher, look out. Yea, really not sure what to expect out of this. However, that low level shear is very alarming. If dew points can jump up to the low 60s, I really wouldn't be surprised to see some very significant wind reports along with a couple of QLCS tornadoes in the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I think the key for those of us in Kentucky is how big of a gap is going to be in the warm sector. Some models have the cold front slowing down allowing the air mass to destabilize. Others have not much of a gap and the rain never really stops and stop temperatures from soaring into the 70's. If we get a break and get some sunlight we'll hit 70, and Thursday afternoon could be quite stormy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Mid level lapse rates look decent on the GFS. Much of the warm sector is in the 7-7.5C/km range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Interestingly enough the GGEM and UK also look more threatening for Thursday. In fact, the UK essentially reverts to the bombing solution the Euro and it had initially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Interestingly enough the GGEM and UK also look more threatening for Thursday. In fact, the UK essentially reverts to the bombing solution the Euro and it had initially. Hadn't checked the UK. 980 mb over MSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z Euro more impressive as well. Looks like 986 mb in southern WI at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 00z Euro more impressive as well. Looks like 986 mb in southern WI at 96 hours. I am quite surprised how much instability is even this far north, Euro shows around 500 j/kg SB CAPE for Southern Michigan at 96hr. That would certainly be enough instability to maintain a squall line given the wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Even if this doesn't bomb, there appears to be decent potential for a low topped forced squall line with a damaging wind/possibly spin-up tornado threat in southern IL/IN/KY into SW Ohio. Even the "weaker" GFS gets 55+ dew points to near I-70 and suggests strong enough low level winds to get a severe threat with any kind of forced squall line along the cold front Thursday night. I guess the bomb solution isn't completely off the table with most models trending a bit stronger with the low pressure, with the UK now bombing it to below 980mb by Thursday night. If that happens we may get something higher end and the threat may get north of I-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42919-february-20-severe-weather-threat/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say areas in E IL, IN, KY, OH, W PA, S MI need to be on the look out Thursday and Thursday Night, for a potential significant severe weather episode. If we get a stronger bombing low, with very good moisture return, there will be some trouble across the Ohio Valley, i wouldn't be shocked to see warm frontal supercells along I-70 from Indiana to Western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say areas in E IL, IN, KY, OH, W PA, S MI need to be on the look out Thursday and Thursday Night, for a potential significant severe weather episode. If we get a stronger bombing low, with very good moisture return, there will be some trouble across the Ohio Valley, i wouldn't be shocked to see warm frontal supercells along I-70 from Indiana to Western PA Lets not get too crazy, just north of the warm front it will be very cold, I don't see the potential of warm frontal super cells with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 A tiny bit off topic but Google Maps updated its satellite view recently over Washington IL. Some incredible overlooking views of the damage, and then there is this https://maps.google.com/?ll=40.725568,-89.40455&spn=0.018766,0.027595&t=h&z=15 . You can see where the tornado went into the field northeast of the town and you can see where the individual vortices rotated around the parent circulation, just incredible imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 the swirl scouring in the fields is cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 the swirl scouring in the fields is cool Such random bad luck for the farms the tornado hit outside of town, several were right in the path of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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