oldlogin Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 FYI NWS Storm Survey Confirms Two EF1 Tornadoes in Bath CountyPUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED PATH LENGTH FOR TORNADO 2NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY510 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/07/14 TORNADO EVENT......TWO CONFIRMED TORNADOES IN BATH COUNTY...TORNADO 1...RATING: EF-1ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPHPATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.6 MILESPATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDSFATALITIES: 0INJURIES: 0START DATE: OCT 7 2014START TIME: 435 PM EDTSTART LOCATION: 0.6 MILES NW OF SHARPSBURG / BATH COUNTY / KYSTART LAT/LON: 38.20590 / -83.93862END DATE: OCT 7 2014END TIME: 436 PM EDTEND LOCATION: 0.7 MILES N OF SHARPSBURG / BATH COUNTY / KYEND LAT/LON: 38.21156 / -83.931023 BARNS WERE DAMAGED. THERE WAS ALSO SPORADIC DAMAGE TO TREES.TORNADO 2...RATING: EF-1ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPHPATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.3 MILESPATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 35 YARDSFATALITIES: 0INJURIES: 0START DATE: OCT 7 2014START TIME: 453 PM EDTSTART LOCATION: 0.9 NE OLYMPIA SPRINGS / BATH COUNTY / KYSTART LAT/LON: 38.06962 / -83.65979END DATE: OCT 7 2014END TIME: 453 PM EDTEND LOCATION: 1.0 NNE OLYMPIA SPRINGS / BATH COUNTY / KYEND LAT/LON: 38.06843 / -83.65520BOAT TRAILER WITH BOAT WAS OVERTURNED AND A CAMPING TRAILER WAS BLOWNONTO A TRUCK. NUMEROUS SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. THERE WASALSO SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Were you in on this? There's no mention of a gustnado. Yes. The assistance of HCEMA was me. The met surveying the damage could not conclusively determine that the damage was result of rotating winds. He also felt that the rotating debris that I witnessed may have been what he called an eddy. He wouldn't even classify it as a gustnado. I disagree with this determination, especially since I witnessed it. My question remains, what's difference between a gustnado and an eddy of air? This is all in relation to the first area of damage which damaged structures. The other two areas of damage, which are in a straight line downstream from the first, mainly involves several large trees that were uprooted. There really is no signs of tornadic activity at these locations. The unusual thing is that even though they are in residential areas, there is very little structural wind damage, only damage caused by large falling trees. EDIT: I am deferring to the experts here. I understand that a gustnado is not a tornado and I have a feeling that NWS may have problems explaining the difference to the general public as a reason for not mentioning it. As a public service official, albeit a volunteer, I will publicly call it microburst damage. But the first damage area was a result of a gustnado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Interesting to note you had some svr action in Oct. up your way in Huntington. And I know the general public is certainly not as aware of differences in microburst/gustnado issues as we are on this board. Glad it wasn't any worse from an emergency management standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Although the SPC's D4 outlook has a severe threat for the Lower MS Valley for Monday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/), ILX has been playing up a threat of strong storms locally that day, and maybe even severe in SE IL:FXUS63 KILX 101126AFDILXArea Forecast DiscussionNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL626 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014.SHORT TERM...(Today)ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of theprecip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towardsChampaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurringfurther south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northernArkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bitfurther north as shortwave energy, currently over the SouthernPlains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of theshort term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shieldas this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into thisafternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjustmuch further north than what we have been advertising for the pastday or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield toChampaign line. POPs will progressively increase as you head southtowards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towardsI74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the midlevels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on sowe will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, withreadings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highsmay struggle to get out of the middle 50s.&&.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL duringtonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into ARand TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles seacross the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Cloudsdecrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper30s nw of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, morewidespread frost further nw toward IA border closer to high pressureridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F se of the IL river. Cool highsin the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northerncounties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south ofI-70 where more clouds prevail.00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture intocentral IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of ILbegins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showersspreading ne across central IL during overnight Sat night intoSunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay se of CWA through Sunday.Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low tomid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sundaynight with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short wavesfrom the sw beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasingmoisture from the gulf.Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper leveltrof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developinga cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface lowpressure to eject ne from the southern plains into the Great Lakesregion early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstormsMon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/se IL where 1-2inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Alsosevere thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeastIL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue andadded 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudierand cooler.&&.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Band ofshowers mainly south of I-72 early this morning and expectingthe measureable rainfall to occur even further south today.Our northern TAF locations (KPIA, KBMI) will remain dry whileour southern TAF sites, other than some very light showers orsprinkles early this morning and again aftr 19z, will remain dry.The threat for rain will shift well south of the TAF sites aftr23z as high pressure settles southeast into the region tonight.Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10 to 15 ktstoday, and then diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight from the northeast.&&.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.&&$$SHORT TERM...SmithLONG TERM...07AVIATION...Smith---------------- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL515 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-111100-CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD-515 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRALILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHTNO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAYA STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALLTO PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE MONDAYAFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEMAS IT APPROACHES..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Definitely could envision some severe weather with that early week system. Flow is very amplified and there's some negatives as far as severe potential (instability/crappy lapse rates) but things that won't be lacking are forcing and shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 NAM actually has respectable instability when considering the forcing/shear but it was probably a wasted 15 seconds to mention the NAM at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 It is looking like a typical autumn high shear/low CAPE setup. Right now it's looking like there could be some interesting weather much further north than the area SPC is outlining in the Monday/Monday night timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 NAM actually has respectable instability when considering the forcing/shear but it was probably a wasted 15 seconds to mention the NAM at this point. Actually, the NAM has a more realistic thermodynamic profile when compared to the GFS. GFS is relying too much on climo plus it has a known cold bias to begin with. Also the NAM is actually pretty similar with respect to dynamics except it is actually about 3-6mb too weak on the low compared to the GFS, location and vorticity placing are actually pretty in line. I suspect that we will be looking at instability closer to the NAM than the GFS when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Actually, the NAM has a more realistic thermodynamic profile when compared to the GFS. GFS is relying too much on climo plus it has a known cold bias to begin with. Also the NAM is actually pretty similar with respect to dynamics except it is actually about 3-6mb too weak on the low compared to the GFS, location and vorticity placing are actually pretty in line. I suspect that we will be looking at instability closer to the NAM than the GFS when all is said and done. What kind of instability does the Euro have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 What kind of instability does the Euro have? 500 j/kg SBCAPE up to your area by 00z Tuesday with 1000 up to the river, the Euro is a bit slower though compared to the GFS so the instability push is lagging a bit up into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 The models have all been pretty consistent with the idea of a consolidated low pressure tracking into IL by Monday night over the last day and a half...some of them had been more strung out before that. I'd have to imagine that if we get a low in the mid 990mb range moving into IL Monday afternoon/evening with a 50-70 knot 850mb jet east of it that there would probably be some severe threat north of the Ohio River, especially in IL/IN. The Euro and Canadian (12z runs) try to occlude the low a bit quicker than the GFS/NAM so it is a bit slower moving north and stalls a bit farther southwest...I'm not sure how much that could potentially limit the threat Monday night, as the cold front would probably slow down a good amount if the low occluded which I'd think would probably hurt things in a lower instability setup. We'll have to see...a low with a large warm sector and such strong wind fields in fall should garner some attention though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 500 j/kg SBCAPE up to your area by 00z Tuesday with 1000 up to the river, the Euro is a bit slower though compared to the GFS so the instability push is lagging a bit up into the region. Looks like the 18z GFS has slowed down compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Looks like the 18z GFS has slowed down compared to the 12z run. Yeah it does a bit, but instability on the GFS still looks the same from the 12z run. So slowing down of the system didn't negatively affect that. Note though with the amount of forcing that will be in place and the wind fields that should be in place as well, it won't take much instability to get a strong MCS going/maintaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 We'll have to see...a low with a large warm sector and such strong wind fields in fall should garner some attention though. I think that any areas that are over 500 J/kg of CAPE will be looked at very closely by the SPC. Perhaps tornado watches will be issued from the OH Valley to the Gulf Coast on Monday. Some areas of wind advisories may be issued west of St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 New day 3 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AS WELL AS TN AND OH VALLEYS... ..SUMMARY NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE GULF COASTAL STATES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. ..SYNOPSIS A STRONG...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION...REACHING THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 12Z TUESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND GFS. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT. ..ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS...OH AND TN VALLEYS SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AS IT DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF COASTAL STATES WITH LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH VALLEY. WHILE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...SOME DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM SQUALL LINE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM NCNTRL/NERN TX INTO SWRN MO. MLCAPE MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. STORMS WILL DEVELOP EWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR PROMOTED BY STRONG FORCING WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SIZEABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING BOW ECHO AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THREAT MAY BECOME MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 11, 2014 Share Posted October 11, 2014 From ILN AFD FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AGAIN...HAVE USED THE GFS AS ACOMPROMISE FOR FRONTAL TIMING AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.MODELS INDICATE A DECENT 60-65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET/FOCUSED AREA OFPCPN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TOMOVE INTO THE WRN AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSING EAST ONTUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A QLCS TO DEVELOP DUE TOTHE STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS/FORCING. THE QUESTION ALWAYS IS THEAMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM COULDSTILL END UP AS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL TOPRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES EVEN IN JUSTROBUST SHOWERS. AS INDICATED...THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION DUETO THE AMOUNT OF CLOSING OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO OURWEST. SO...IT IS UNCLEAR HIGH FAST THE FOCUS LINE OFSHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THEREGION AND MAY PLAY APART IN WHETHER IT DEVELOPS GOOD MOMENTUM. ONTHE OTHER SIDE...COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT OFTHE GULF...AND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...ASLOWER SOLUTION MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANDPOSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL ANISSUE...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO MENTION SOMETHING IN THEHWO AND WILL DO SO. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY LOWERTO MID 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE PCPN DEPENDENT AND WILL RANGEFROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Might be a marginal risk (quite literally given the new outlook categories) of severe on Monday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 dual MRGL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 26, 2014 Share Posted October 26, 2014 COD needs to fix their graphics...MRGL area not showing up on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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