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2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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FYI

 

NWS Storm Survey Confirms Two EF1 Tornadoes in Bath County
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED PATH LENGTH FOR TORNADO 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
510 PM EDT WED OCT 8 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/07/14 TORNADO EVENT...

...TWO CONFIRMED TORNADOES IN BATH COUNTY...

TORNADO 1...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.6 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 50 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: OCT 7 2014
START TIME: 435 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 0.6 MILES NW OF SHARPSBURG / BATH COUNTY / KY
START LAT/LON: 38.20590 / -83.93862

END DATE: OCT 7 2014
END TIME: 436 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 0.7 MILES N OF SHARPSBURG / BATH COUNTY / KY
END LAT/LON: 38.21156 / -83.93102

3 BARNS WERE DAMAGED. THERE WAS ALSO SPORADIC DAMAGE TO TREES.

TORNADO 2...

RATING: EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.3 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 35 YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 0

START DATE: OCT 7 2014
START TIME: 453 PM EDT
START LOCATION: 0.9 NE OLYMPIA SPRINGS / BATH COUNTY / KY
START LAT/LON: 38.06962 / -83.65979

END DATE: OCT 7 2014
END TIME: 453 PM EDT
END LOCATION: 1.0 NNE OLYMPIA SPRINGS / BATH COUNTY / KY
END LAT/LON: 38.06843 / -83.65520

BOAT TRAILER WITH BOAT WAS OVERTURNED AND A CAMPING TRAILER WAS BLOWN
ONTO A TRUCK. NUMEROUS SHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF A HOUSE. THERE WAS
ALSO SPORADIC TREE DAMAGE.
 
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Were you in on this?  There's no mention of a gustnado.

 

Yes. The assistance of HCEMA was me. The met surveying the damage could not conclusively determine that the damage was result of rotating winds. He also felt that the rotating debris that I witnessed may have been what he called an eddy. He wouldn't even classify it as a gustnado. I disagree with this determination, especially since I witnessed it. My question remains, what's difference between a gustnado and an eddy of air? This is all in relation to the first area of damage which damaged structures.

 

The other two areas of damage, which are in a straight line downstream from the first, mainly involves several large trees that were uprooted. There really is no signs of tornadic activity at these locations. The unusual thing is that even though they are in residential areas, there is very little structural wind damage, only damage caused by large falling trees.

 

EDIT: I am deferring to the experts here. I understand that a gustnado is not a tornado and I have a feeling that NWS may have problems explaining the difference to the general public as a reason for not mentioning it. As a public service official, albeit a volunteer, I will publicly call it microburst damage. But the first damage area was a result of a gustnado.

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Although the SPC's D4 outlook has a severe threat for the Lower MS Valley for Monday (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/), ILX has been playing up a threat of strong storms locally that day, and maybe even severe in SE IL:
FXUS63 KILX 101126
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
626 AM CDT Fri Oct 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Forecast challenge through today remains the northern extent of the
precip shield, currently extending from near Springfield east towards
Champaign. For the most part, the steadier rains have been occurring
further south closer to a stalled frontal boundary over northern
Arkansas east through central Kentucky. This boundary may edge a bit
further north as shortwave energy, currently over the Southern
Plains, shifts thru the Ohio River Valley later today. Some of the
short term models suggest a slight northward push to the rain shield
as this upper wave shifts to our south later this morning into this
afternoon. However, not seeing enough evidence off models to adjust
much further north than what we have been advertising for the past
day or so, mainly along and south of Jacksonville to Springfield to
Champaign line. POPs will progressively increase as you head south
towards the I-70 corridor through this afternoon, while north towards
I74, little if any rain is expected thru tonight.

Forecast soundings continue to show an increase in drying at the mid
levels of the atmosphere from north to south as the day wears on so
we will probably see warmer temps over parts of the north, with
readings approaching 60 degrees in a few locations. Further south,
where the thicker cloud cover and precip will be, afternoon highs
may struggle to get out of the middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

Have chances of showers gradually lowering over southeast IL during
tonight and Saturday as frontal boundary shifts southward into AR
and TN, and 1028 mb Canadian high pressure over eastern ND settles se
across the Midwest and into the western Great Lakes region. Clouds
decrease over northern counties and expect lows in the mid to upper
30s nw of the IL river with patchy frost late tonight, more
widespread frost further nw toward IA border closer to high pressure
ridge and lighter winds. Lows 40-45F se of the IL river. Cool highs
in the upper 50s and lower 60s Saturday with more sunshine northern
counties. Just a slight chance of showers over southeast IL south of
I-70 where more clouds prevail.

00Z forecast models have trended slower with returning moisture into
central IL Sat night and Sunday as frontal boundary south of IL
begins lifting back north. Have central IL dry yet Sat evening with
20-30% pops in southeast IL. Then have low chances of showers
spreading ne across central IL during overnight Sat night into
Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms mainly stay se of CWA through Sunday.
Highs Sunday in upper 50s and lower 60s over central IL and low to
mid 60s in southeast IL. Better chances of showers arriving Sunday
night with isolated thunderstorms in southeast IL as short waves
from the sw beginning moving into IL and interacting with increasing
moisture from the gulf.

Extended models continue to show a strong full latitude upper level
trof moving east into the MS river valley by 12Z Tue and developing
a cutoff low near IL by middle of next week. Strong surface low
pressure to eject ne from the southern plains into the Great Lakes
region early next week and bring showers and chance of thunderstorms
Mon-Mon night. Heavy rains likely over eastern/se IL where 1-2
inches with locally higher amounts near the Wabash river. Also
severe thunderstorms could also be an increasing risk over southeast
IL Monday afternoon/evening. Continue chances of showers Tue and
added 20-30% chances of showers Tue night and Wed as models
(especially the ECMWF) show cutoff low near IL keeping it cloudier
and cooler.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

VFR conditions are expected thru this forecast period. Band of
showers mainly south of I-72 early this morning and expecting
the measureable rainfall to occur even further south today.
Our northern TAF locations (KPIA, KBMI) will remain dry while
our southern TAF sites, other than some very light showers or
sprinkles early this morning and again aftr 19z, will remain dry.
The threat for rain will shift well south of the TAF sites aftr
23z as high pressure settles southeast into the region tonight.
Surface winds will remain out of the northeast at 10 to 15 kts
today, and then diminish to 5 to 10 kts tonight from the northeast.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith

----------------

 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061-111100-
CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-FULTON-KNOX-
LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PEORIA-
PIATT-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY-STARK-TAZEWELL-VERMILION-
WOODFORD-
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
TO PARTS OF CENTRAL THROUGH EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM
AS IT APPROACHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.

$$



 

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NAM actually has respectable instability when considering the forcing/shear but it was probably a wasted 15 seconds to mention the NAM at this point.

Actually, the NAM has a more realistic thermodynamic profile when compared to the GFS. GFS is relying too much on climo plus it has a known cold bias to begin with. Also the NAM is actually pretty similar with respect to dynamics except it is actually about 3-6mb too weak on the low compared to the GFS, location and vorticity placing are actually pretty in line.

I suspect that we will be looking at instability closer to the NAM than the GFS when all is said and done.

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Actually, the NAM has a more realistic thermodynamic profile when compared to the GFS. GFS is relying too much on climo plus it has a known cold bias to begin with. Also the NAM is actually pretty similar with respect to dynamics except it is actually about 3-6mb too weak on the low compared to the GFS, location and vorticity placing are actually pretty in line.

I suspect that we will be looking at instability closer to the NAM than the GFS when all is said and done.

 

What kind of instability does the Euro have?

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The models have all been pretty consistent with the idea of a consolidated low pressure tracking into IL by Monday night over the last day and a half...some of them had been more strung out before that. I'd have to imagine that if we get a low in the mid 990mb range moving into IL Monday afternoon/evening with a 50-70 knot 850mb jet east of it that there would probably be some severe threat north of the Ohio River, especially in IL/IN. The Euro and Canadian (12z runs) try to occlude the low a bit quicker than the GFS/NAM so it is a bit slower moving north and stalls a bit farther southwest...I'm not sure how much that could potentially limit the threat Monday night, as the cold front would probably slow down a good amount if the low occluded which I'd think would probably hurt things in a lower instability setup. We'll have to see...a low with a large warm sector and such strong wind fields in fall should garner some attention though.

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Looks like the 18z GFS has slowed down compared to the 12z run.

Yeah it does a bit, but instability on the GFS still looks the same from the 12z run. So slowing down of the system didn't negatively affect that. Note though with the amount of forcing that will be in place and the wind fields that should be in place as well, it won't take much instability to get a strong MCS going/maintaining.

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 We'll have to see...a low with a large warm sector and such strong wind fields in fall should garner some attention though.

I think that any areas that are over 500 J/kg of CAPE will be looked at very closely by the SPC. Perhaps tornado watches will be issued from the OH Valley to the Gulf Coast on Monday. Some areas of wind advisories may be issued west of St. Louis.

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New day 3

 

 

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
0230 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2014  
 
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z  

 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE SRN  
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AS WELL AS TN AND OH VALLEYS...  
   
..SUMMARY
 
 
NUMEROUS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY  
NIGHT FROM EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE GULF  
COASTAL STATES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN  
THREATS.  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STRONG...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIKELY TO BE OVER THE  
CNTRL/SRN PLAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MS VALLEY  
REGION...REACHING THE TN/OH VALLEYS BY 12Z TUESDAY. SOME MODEL  
DIFFERENCES PERSIST REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE AND SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM  
WITH THE ECMWF MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE NAM AND  
GFS. ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY  
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH  
THE SRN PLAINS...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE TN AND  
OH VALLEYS MONDAY NIGHT.  
   
..ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEYS...OH AND TN VALLEYS
 
 
SLY LLJ WILL STRENGTHEN TO IN EXCESS OF 60 KT AS IT DEVELOPS EWD  
THROUGH THE MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS AND WILL ADVECT RICHER GULF  
MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 F  
NEAR-SFC DEWPOINTS ARE LIKELY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND GULF  
COASTAL STATES WITH LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE OH  
VALLEY. WHILE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED...SOME  
DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER MAY OCCUR DOWNSTREAM FROM SQUALL  
LINE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING FROM NCNTRL/NERN TX INTO SWRN MO. MLCAPE  
MAY APPROACH 2000 J/KG OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND  
REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG FARTHER NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY. STORMS WILL  
DEVELOP EWD THROUGH WARM SECTOR PROMOTED BY STRONG FORCING WITHIN  
FRONTAL ZONE AS WELL AS ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS  
WITH 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND SIZEABLE 0-2 KM HODOGRAPHS  
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN THE LINE INCLUDING BOW ECHO  
AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE  
THE MAIN THREATS. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
FROM THE GULF COASTAL STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...BUT THREAT  
MAY BECOME MORE MARGINAL WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE OH VALLEY. 

 

post-4544-0-21236300-1413013238_thumb.gi

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From ILN AFD

 

 

 



FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AGAIN...HAVE USED THE GFS AS A
COMPROMISE FOR FRONTAL TIMING AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.
MODELS INDICATE A DECENT 60-65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET/FOCUSED AREA OF
PCPN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE WRN AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...PROGRESSING EAST ON
TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR A QLCS TO DEVELOP DUE TO
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL FOCUS/FORCING. THE QUESTION ALWAYS IS THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...WHICH SHOULD BE WEAK. THIS SYSTEM COULD
STILL END UP AS A HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF SPIN UP TORNADOES EVEN IN JUST
ROBUST SHOWERS
. AS INDICATED...THE TIMING IS STILL IN QUESTION DUE
TO THE AMOUNT OF CLOSING OFF OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION TO OUR
WEST. SO...IT IS UNCLEAR HIGH FAST THE FOCUS LINE OF
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACRS THE
REGION AND MAY PLAY APART IN WHETHER IT DEVELOPS GOOD MOMENTUM. ON
THE OTHER SIDE...COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF...AND WITH PWATS APPROACHING 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL...A
SLOWER SOLUTION MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES. ALTHOUGH TIMING IS STILL AN
ISSUE...BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO MENTION SOMETHING IN THE
HWO AND WILL DO SO. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...MAINLY LOWER
TO MID 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE PCPN DEPENDENT AND WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
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