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2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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Recent model guidance has me very excited for Tuesday in SW Ontario.  Most definitely will be out chasing.  There appears to be good potential for a significant event.  The atmosphere is primed with an ideal combo of param's.  KGRR mentioning possible sustained progressive derecho into Lower Mi.

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If I had to bet on it I'd say there's a decent chance of something fairly significant somewhere in the subforum in the next few days.  Details are up in the air as usual but this smells like one of those times where a higher end slight or even a moderate risk type event could evolve with little notice.  Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Tuesday would seem to be the preferred day on paper.  

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If I had to bet on it I'd say there's a decent chance of something fairly significant somewhere in the subforum in the next few days.  Details are up in the air as usual but this smells like one of those times where a higher end slight or even a moderate risk type event could evolve with little notice.  Between Tuesday and Wednesday, Tuesday would seem to be the preferred day on paper.

 

MI and possibly ON looking decent on Tuesday with that s/w (I believe it's the same one responsible for the potential on Monday) moving through the area with high instability. Any backing of the surface winds towards the SSW is going to ramp up the directional shear and speed shear already looks near adequate (although I'd like to see stronger deep layer flow).

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The models are certainly looking a bit more robust for Tuesday. The severe probs on the SPC SREF are significantly increased across MN-WI from previous runs. However, the GFS shows quite a bit of CIN to overcome, despite the NAM looking a bit more trigger-happy. It will definitely be a day to watch and I suspect we'll probably get a Day 2 SLGT in the coming hours.

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The models are certainly looking a bit more robust for Tuesday. The severe probs on the SPC SREF are significantly increased across MN-WI from previous runs. However, the GFS shows quite a bit of CIN to overcome, despite the NAM looking a bit more trigger-happy. It will definitely be a day to watch and I suspect we'll probably get a Day 2 SLGT in the coming hours.

Good call. New day 2 has a slight risk from the Dakotas to LM. Same area is just 15% with hatched for all but LM.

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Latest model guidance shows an incredible setup for Lower Michigan and SW Ontario Tuesday.  Looks like a possible outbreak scenario with robust supercells likely.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_con_scp_078.gif

 

 

Meh, there could be some strong storms, but I'm not seeing anything that screams outbreak.

 

 

Recent model guidance has me very excited for Tuesday in SW Ontario.  Most definitely will be out chasing.  There appears to be good potential for a significant event.  The atmosphere is primed with an ideal combo of param's.  KGRR mentioning possible sustained progressive derecho into Lower Mi.

 

No outbreak, but there was definitely some action in Ontario today. I was wondering if you chased and if so, got close to the tornadoes up there.

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Ring of fire setup is beginning to look likely next week. Thoughts?

 

Yeah it does look like there is a potential there, I would hedge my bets on a bit further south than currently projected. These setups tend to forecast further north only to verify south, which would be good for most of us anyways.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Surprised nobody posted about Sunday yet.  Explosive instability and shear doesn't look terrible...good enough for organized severe.

I have been watching this one for a few days, it could be potentially be a good MCS potential.

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This is a point forecast sounding for Sunday, 21z, today's 00z NAM. (7/5, 00z). This is for the La Crosse area. You don't see a forecast of 7000 J/kg CAPE every day. 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt are in the area. The model has dew points in the mid 70s, which may be a bit high.

 

post-1182-0-43303300-1404534767_thumb.gi

 

 

 

 

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Directional shear looks pretty good tomorrow with generally S/SW winds at the surface veering to NW aloft.  Upper level flow is a bit anemic though.

 

Yeah better shear lags behind the front. Regardless the instability should be there and NW flow events always seem to produce a couple good storms.

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DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  

1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2014  

 

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z  

   

..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WI  

SERN  

MN...CNTRL AND ERN IA...AND NRN IL...  

   

..SUMMARY  

 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL  

WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY  

AND MIDWEST ON SUNDAY.  

   

..SYNOPSIS  

 

SLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AN AXIS FROM THE SRN  

PLAINS NWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS WITH SURFACE  

HIGH OVER THE ERN STATES. BY LATE IN THE DAY...GRADUAL HEIGHT  

FALLS/COOLING ALOFT WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY IN  

ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL  

EXTEND SWD FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO...ROUGHLY ALONG A CNTRL WI  

TO CNTRL IA LINE BY 00Z. SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY WILL MATERIALIZE  

AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BENEATH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT WITH SCATTERED  

SEVERE STORMS LIKELY CENTERED ON SRN WI...ERN IA AND NRN IL.  

   

..SERN MN...WI...IA...NRN IL  

 

A FEW EARLY STORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS NRN MN...NRN WI AND WRN  

UPPER MICHIGAN WITH PERHAPS A MINIMAL HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...THE  

GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE  

AFTERNOON EXTENDING SWWD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WHERE STRONG  

INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. MINIMALLY-VEERING WINDS IN THE LOWER  

TROPOSPHERE AND INCREASING WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD  

PROVE FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STORM MODE  

IS LIKELY TO BECOME MIXED INTO THE EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  

WINDS WILL BOTH BE LIKELY.  

 

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE OVER-FORECASTING THE BOUNDARY LAYER  

DEWPOINTS...WHICH AFFECTS BOTH CAPE VALUES AND DEGREE OF CAPPING. AS  

A RESULT...CELLS MAY NEED TO REMAIN TIED TO THE FRONT AND/OR AN  

EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO MCS IS POSSIBLE.  

 

..JEWELL.. 07/05/2014  

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Regarding moisture possibly being overdone as SPC alludes to...considering what's going on out west now and that moisture doesn't look too shallow, I'm thinking the model errors won't be that big and we should be able to pull off widespread 70-75 degree dews tomorrow in the threat area. 

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This is a point forecast sounding for Sunday, 21z, today's 00z NAM. (7/5, 00z). This is for the La Crosse area. You don't see a forecast of 7000 J/kg CAPE every day. 0-6km shear values of 30-40 kt are in the area. The model has dew points in the mid 70s, which may be a bit high.

 

attachicon.gif00_NAM_045_43.3,-91.4_skewt_SB.gif

 

Fairly impressive sounding, all in all...

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Northwestern Illinois at 00z Sunday (using mixed layer parcel).  Obviously convection earlier in the day may play a role.

 

I definitely could work with that.  It's still kind of far out for the NAM then add in earlier convection playing a role and I'm taking this with a grain of salt.  On the other hand, the NAM runs today did progressively look more promising so I'm definitely interested.  Heck, I'd probably take some scud at this point since I'm still feeling a bit salty after missing out on Pilger.  

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  • 1 month later...

SPC has added a slight risk area for tomorrow for parts of IL/IN/OH/KY.

 

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...



...OH VALLEY AREA...

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SWLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /UPPER 60S-LOW 70F DEWPOINTS/
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THIS REGION FROM THE WEST CONTRIBUTING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
MLCAPE WHERE DIABATIC WARMING OF THE SFC LAYER OCCURS. SOME
CONVECTION MAY BE IN PROGRESS OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY DRIVEN MOSTLY
BY ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WARMER AIR IN
THE 850-750 MB LAYER MAY SERVE TO CAP A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR
TO SFC BASED DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY WITH SWD EXTENT INTO THE OH
VALLEY. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF IL AND
IND NWD WHERE THE CAP WILL BE WEAKER AND INFLUENCE OF DEEPER ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE STRONGER.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE TO 30-35 KT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
MID-LEVEL JET ATTENDING THE UPPER TROUGH. MULTICELLS AND MARGINAL
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY OCCUR WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

 

post-4544-0-85919200-1408384034_thumb.gi

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