OntarioChaser Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Latest model guidance shows an incredible setup for Lower Michigan and SW Ontario Tuesday. Looks like a possible outbreak scenario with robust supercells likely. http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/GFS/18/US/gfsUS_con_scp_078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Meh, there could be some strong storms, but I'm not seeing anything that screams outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Meh, there could be some strong storms, but I'm not seeing anything that screams outbreak. Not the best setup for severe weather we've seen in the region, but it could still be an active day Tuesday. As always, what happens on Tuesday and where will be determined by the previous day's convection, and if any significant MCVs develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Meh, there could be some strong storms, but I'm not seeing anything that screams outbreak. yeah, (not that anyone is calling for outbreak) but this one really isn't doing anything for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Tuesday won't be an outbreak at least not as currently modeled but if some storms can go up near the warm front there would be an elevated tornado potential. I do admit there is a good amount of instability and great lapse rates so there is a decent potential with Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 yeah, (not that anyone is calling for outbreak) but this one really isn't doing anything for me That could be said for the vast majority of threats the last three years. It has been zzzz for tornado potential for a few years now (not that it matters a ton to me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 A huge complex of storms stretches from Minnesota to Kansas late this evening. This will continue to move east overnight before it starts to crap the bed by tomorrow morning. Such a huge complex of storms will leave a lot of leftover cloudiness for tomorrow over the instability axis. It's possible there could even be pockets of leftover precip festering in areas through early afternoon. Typical of a central MW conditional severe setup. The 4km NAM has pushed things a bit east tomorrow with the convection. It favors the eastern half of Illinois. The 00z GFS is further west, and would ignite convection over eastern Iowa. This is all tied into how tonight's leftovers evolve. We really won't know much about how tomorrow will evolve until mid to late morning. Very typical for us poor bastards who reside east of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Not the best setup for severe weather we've seen in the region, but it could still be an active day Tuesday. The recent GFS runs point to one of the better setups I've seen in MI in awhile, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 A huge complex of storms stretches from Minnesota to Kansas late this evening. This will continue to move east overnight before it starts to crap the bed by tomorrow morning. Such a huge complex of storms will leave a lot of leftover cloudiness for tomorrow over the instability axis. It's possible there could even be pockets of leftover precip festering in areas through early afternoon. Typical of a central MW conditional severe setup. The 4km NAM has pushed things a bit east tomorrow with the convection. It favors the eastern half of Illinois. The 00z GFS is further west, and would ignite convection over eastern Iowa. This is all tied into how tonight's leftovers evolve. We really won't know much about how tomorrow will evolve until mid to late morning. Very typical for us poor bastards who reside east of the Plains. The storms totally collapsed before reaching I-35. Even Omaha didn't get much out of the weakening line. Eastern Iowa is pretty much in the clear. Recent Euro runs have shown the more interesting storms for the CR to Chicago corridor midweek with a bit of a backdoor front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 still not excited about today…instability axis is super narrow and forcing isn't impressive. Best storms should be just to my southeast later this evening. into the week looks more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 still not excited about today…instability axis is super narrow and forcing isn't impressive. Best storms should be just to my southeast later this evening. into the week looks more interesting. The HRRR is not very impressed either, just some more "tame" storms firing up later this afternoon. The NAM blows things up, but that seems overdone. Like you said, potentially better action later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 still not excited about today…instability axis is super narrow and forcing isn't impressive. Best storms should be just to my southeast later this evening. into the week looks more interesting. Only a 5% area currently for Tuesday but you're right where you like to be, on the southern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Certainly some debris clouds to deal with but there's some sun across the risk area and there should continue to be in the hours to come. It's kinda concerning that you have to go down to the St. Louis area to find dewpoints currently in the mid 60s but models have this expanding north into most of IL and into WI later today so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Only a 5% area currently for Tuesday but you're right where you like to be, on the southern fringe. The biggest problem I see with Tuesday is the lack of a well-defined trigger. The main MCV that the models develop comes through way too early on Tuesday (GFS has it in SW Ontario by 18z) to be of much help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 still not excited about today…instability axis is super narrow and forcing isn't impressive. Best storms should be just to my southeast later this evening. into the week looks more interesting. Yup, a huge reservoir of high cape and moisture and decent 850 to 500mb shear, especially Monday night but lingering into Wednesday morning. Hoping for some good MCS action or outflow induced storms during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Certainly some debris clouds to deal with but there's some sun across the risk area and there should continue to be in the hours to come. It's kinda concerning that you have to go down to the St. Louis area to find dewpoints currently in the mid 60s but models have this expanding north into most of IL and into WI later today so we'll see. As long as that convection in the Arklatex region continues to diminish, moisture advection shouldn't be a problem, as a pretty decent 30-40kt LLJ is over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Only a 5% area currently for Tuesday but you're right where you like to be, on the southern fringe. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 The biggest problem I see with Tuesday is the lack of a well-defined trigger. The main MCV that the models develop comes through way too early on Tuesday (GFS has it in SW Ontario by 18z) to be of much help. I wouldn't get too hung up on MCV location at this point, models are going to struggle with the mesoscale timing especially at this junction (NAM) or have a hard time parameterizing it (GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 I wouldn't get too hung up on MCV location at this point, models are going to struggle with the mesoscale timing especially at this junction (NAM) or have a hard time parameterizing it (GFS). yep, plus with this type of pattern, triggers are almost always subtle and hard to pick up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 yep, plus with this type of pattern, triggers are almost always subtle and hard to pick up Yeah, the big key is the atmosphere is primed for a big day if a trigger is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Certainly some debris clouds to deal with but there's some sun across the risk area and there should continue to be in the hours to come. It's kinda concerning that you have to go down to the St. Louis area to find dewpoints currently in the mid 60s but models have this expanding north into most of IL and into WI later today so we'll see. Latest hourly obs show dews well into the 60's across Central and Northwest IL. EDIT: Vis. satellite showing clear skies from South Central WI down through West Central IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 SPC day 2 now pushing into W WI to account for MCS development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 I wouldn't get too hung up on MCV location at this point, models are going to struggle with the mesoscale timing especially at this junction (NAM) or have a hard time parameterizing it (GFS). yep, plus with this type of pattern, triggers are almost always subtle and hard to pick up Yeah, the big key is the atmosphere is primed for a big day if a trigger is realized. Fair points. The potential is obviously there for a big day, but there's huge bust potential as well, so I can understand why the SPC isn't being so bullish this far out on the risk area. They'll probably upgrade at least a portion of the 5% area on the Day 2 outlook though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Regarding today's dwindling threat, nice helmet on the 18z ILX sounding. Convective temp is 97 degrees. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Some agitated looking cu in eastern Iowa. Surface flow has veered quite a bit already. Winds are still backed over northeast IL and eastern WI ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Looking like there will be two lines of convection to build south out of WI in coming hours. Instability is coming in less than forecast for days due to lower dews than progged. Pretty classic for 2014 it seems. (Hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow out in Iowa lol). Severe threat looks pretty meager at this point, but instability should only increase as the afternoon goes on, so the storms that can fire may become marginally severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 (Hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow out in Iowa lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 It looks like the 4km NAM and the SREF ensembles highlight northeast Iowa/ La Crosse Wisconsin as a likely area for a derecho and heavy rain tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Some agitated looking cu in eastern Iowa. Surface flow has veered quite a bit already. Winds are still backed over northeast IL and eastern WI ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Looking like there will be two lines of convection to build south out of WI in coming hours. Instability is coming in less than forecast for days due to lower dews than progged. Pretty classic for 2014 it seems. (Hopefully that doesn't happen tomorrow out in Iowa lol). Severe threat looks pretty meager at this point, but instability should only increase as the afternoon goes on, so the storms that can fire may become marginally severe. Or not lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 Pretty safe at this point to completely write off today for severe weather potential. Still could see some decent non-severe boomers develop as the nocturnal LLJ kicks in though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 15, 2014 Share Posted June 15, 2014 today has been a non-starter for about 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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