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2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco


Chicago Storm

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IF enough instability develops on Wednesday (which is doubtful), the model soundings for Detroit do show a conditional tornado threat.

 

Something to passively keep in mind I guess...

 

Good call on my end...

 

Quote

TORNADO WARNING

MIC145-112245-

/O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0006.140611T2156Z-140611T2245Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

556 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 554 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25

MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT

SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE

TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS

LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...

ST. CHARLES AROUND 605 PM EDT.

GARFIELD AROUND 610 PM EDT.

SHIAWASSEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AROUND 625 PM EDT.

FOSTERS AROUND 635 PM EDT.

BRIDGEPORT AROUND 645 PM EDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A

STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR

OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT

YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

&&

LAT...LON 4332 8434 4347 8370 4322 8370 4322 8393

4318 8394 4314 8429

TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 247DEG 18KT 4327 8420

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED

HAIL...<.75IN

$

BT

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The only confirmed touchdown in Indiana yesterday.

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0725 PM TORNADO BLOOMFIELD 39.03N 86.94W
06/10/2014 GREENE IN EMERGENCY MNGR

BRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN ALONG BASELINE ROAD SOUTH OF
BLOOMFIELD. EF-0 INTENSITY.
 

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That cell actually has a pretty good circulation associated with it. Just to the WNW of St. Charles. I wouldn't be shocked if there was something on the ground there as the couplet was very tight about 10 minutes ago.

From what I saw on the 11pm news, it appears some damage occurred in the St. Charles area, accompanied by a "freight train" sound. 

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From what I saw on the 11pm news, it appears some damage occurred in the St. Charles area, accompanied by a "freight train" sound. 

 

Yeah there are some pictures on twitter of trees down one on a house from that area, I am sure later today DTX will be out there to check out the area.

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   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   0314 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014

 

   VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

 

   ...DISCUSSION...

   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING

   ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES

   ON DAYS 4-5/SUN-MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED

   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE

   MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON BOTH DAYS. THE BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON

   SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO WI SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL

   MO/IL WHERE A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH

   STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.

   SMALLER SCALE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT

   AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND HAIL

   THREAT IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHERE THE BEST

   PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST HOWEVER. GENERAL

   PATTERN AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL

   LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY

   NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO PARTS OF THE

   MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.


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   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014
 
   VALID 151200Z - 201200Z
 
   ...DISCUSSION...
   MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING
   ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
   ON DAYS 4-5/SUN-MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED
   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON BOTH DAYS. THE BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON
   SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO WI SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL
   MO/IL WHERE A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH
   STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   SMALLER SCALE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT
   AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND HAIL
   THREAT IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHERE THE BEST
   PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST HOWEVER. GENERAL
   PATTERN AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
   LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
   NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO PARTS OF THE
   MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.

 

The forecaster sounds confident of the threat, but wouldn't pull the trigger on a risk area.

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NWS DTX has confirmed the tornado in Saginaw County yesterday as an EF1.

Yup...

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1045 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/11/14 TORNADO EVENT...

.BRANT TOWNSHIP / ST CHARLES TORNADO...

RATING: EF-1

ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH

PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5 MILES

PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS

FATALITIES: 0

INJURIES: 1

START DATE: JUNE 11...2014

START TIME: 5:55 PM EDT

START LOCATION: 6 SW ST CHARLES / SAGINAW COUNTY / MI

START LAT/LON: 43.24 / -84.21

END DATE: JUNE 11...2014

END TIME: 6:08 PM EDT

END LOCATION: 1 S ST CHARLES / SAGINAW COUNTY / MI

END_LAT/LON: 43.29 / -84.13

SURVEY SUMMARY: U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED

A TORNADO DAMAGE PATH NEAR ST. CHARLES MICHIGAN. THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT

WITH EF-1 TORNADO DAMAGE WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WIND VALUES OF 90-100 MPH.

INITIAL EF-0 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF MARION AND

RAUCHOLZ ROADS...APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CHARLES. THE

DAMAGE CONSISTED OF MAINLY TREE LIMBS. DAMAGE INTENSITY INCREASED TO

EF-1 ALONG FORDNEY ROAD BETWEEN BRANT AND FERGUS ROADS AND CONTINUED

TO THE VICINITY OF RING AND OAKLEY ROADS. SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE

UPROOTED AND MANY MORE WERE DAMAGED SEVERELY...SOME OF WHICH FELL ON

ADJACENT DWELLINGS. SOME MINOR TO MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS ALSO

OBSERVED...CONSISTING MAINLY OF PARTIALLY LOST ROOFS...BLOWN OUT GARAGE

DOORS AND DESTRUCTION OF OUT BUILDINGS. ADDITIONAL EF-0 DAMAGE WAS

OBSERVED ACROSS M-52 NORTH OF RING ROAD AND CONTINUED TO NEAR SHARON

ROAD ON THE FAR SOUTH SIDE OF ST CHARLES.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES

TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH

EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH

EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH

EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH

EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH

EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

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Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east.  Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however.  Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas.  Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon.  Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. 

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Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east.  Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however.  Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas.  Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon.  Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. 

Ha at least you don't get the very sloppy thirds Toledo gets downwind from you guys

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Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east.  Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however.  Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas.  Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon.  Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. 

 

Best severe chances on Sunday should be west of here but I'd rather take my chances with that evolution above compared to a robust early day MCS that wipes out instability for later in the day. 

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I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk come east a bit on future outlooks.

Agreed. I think there's a decent shot most of our Illinois counties will be in the slight with the day 1. Decent midlevel lapse rates are being advected in during the afternoon which should help with destabilization as long as the higher dewpoint air makes it in after the dry start to the day. Also, deep layer shear is not fantastic but sufficient enough.

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I am pretty surprised by the 3 0s through June 12th of each year. I bet you'd be hard pressed to find another 3 year stretch like that for IWX.

 

 

I went back prior to 1998... the first tornado warning in 1994 wasn't issued until June 16.  1992 was June 17.  1988 didn't have one until October 16 but I'm not sure if there's anything missing in these older years.  Also keep in mind that NWS reorganization means that other offices may have issued warnings for counties in the modern IWX cwa from about the mid 1990s and earlier.

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Tomorrow looks like a classic setup over the central MW.  Classic because it will feature the usual veering low-levels and lingering precip/cloud issues courtesy of the Plains.  Models show just enough instability that we should see some severe develop given the decent bulk shear values.  As Hoosier pointed out the best low-level shear is up in Wisconsin, but the instability is pretty lame there.  If that area up there can clear out early enough there could be some decent supercells over the crappy chase terrain of Wisconsin.  Further to the south shear profiles are sort of meh for supercells, but there looks to be just enough clockwise turning to possibly help spin up a quick tor if a storm can stay discrete long enough.  More than likely this will quickly morph into a squall line with some damaging wind potential. 

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