illinois Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 In Indiana. Wouldn't that be abreviated BBT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 IF enough instability develops on Wednesday (which is doubtful), the model soundings for Detroit do show a conditional tornado threat. Something to passively keep in mind I guess... Good call on my end... Quote TORNADO WARNINGMIC145-112245- /O.NEW.KDTX.TO.W.0006.140611T2156Z-140611T2245Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 556 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 645 PM EDT * AT 554 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ST. CHARLES...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... ST. CHARLES AROUND 605 PM EDT. GARFIELD AROUND 610 PM EDT. SHIAWASSEE NATIONAL WILDLIFE REFUGE AROUND 625 PM EDT. FOSTERS AROUND 635 PM EDT. BRIDGEPORT AROUND 645 PM EDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. && LAT...LON 4332 8434 4347 8370 4322 8370 4322 8393 4318 8394 4314 8429 TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 247DEG 18KT 4327 8420 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $ BT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 That cell actually has a pretty good circulation associated with it. Just to the WNW of St. Charles. I wouldn't be shocked if there was something on the ground there as the couplet was very tight about 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Northern IL on Sunday on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 The only confirmed touchdown in Indiana yesterday. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN420 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0725 PM TORNADO BLOOMFIELD 39.03N 86.94W06/10/2014 GREENE IN EMERGENCY MNGRBRIEF TORNADO TOUCH DOWN ALONG BASELINE ROAD SOUTH OFBLOOMFIELD. EF-0 INTENSITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Northern IL on Sunday on the 18z GFS. Yowza, strong mid level flow too especially in WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 That cell actually has a pretty good circulation associated with it. Just to the WNW of St. Charles. I wouldn't be shocked if there was something on the ground there as the couplet was very tight about 10 minutes ago. From what I saw on the 11pm news, it appears some damage occurred in the St. Charles area, accompanied by a "freight train" sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 From what I saw on the 11pm news, it appears some damage occurred in the St. Charles area, accompanied by a "freight train" sound. Yeah there are some pictures on twitter of trees down one on a house from that area, I am sure later today DTX will be out there to check out the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON DAYS 4-5/SUN-MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON BOTH DAYS. THE BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO WI SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MO/IL WHERE A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SMALLER SCALE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHERE THE BEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST HOWEVER. GENERAL PATTERN AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0314 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2014 VALID 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MIGRATING ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES ON DAYS 4-5/SUN-MON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY ON BOTH DAYS. THE BETTER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY FROM PORTIONS OF ERN IA INTO WI SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL MO/IL WHERE A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE BENEATH STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND AHEAD OF A SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. SMALLER SCALE DETAILS VARY QUITE A BIT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF BUT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY POSE A WIND AND HAIL THREAT IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHERE THE BEST PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER MAY EXIST HOWEVER. GENERAL PATTERN AND FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL TO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY. The forecaster sounds confident of the threat, but wouldn't pull the trigger on a risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huronicane Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 From DTX Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 From DTX Facebook: Lots of pictures of potential tornado damage in the slideshow here: http://www.mlive.com/news/saginaw/index.ssf/2014/06/national_weather_service_to_su.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 NWS DTX has confirmed the tornado in Saginaw County yesterday as an EF1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boogieman Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 NWS DTX has confirmed the tornado in Saginaw County yesterday as an EF1. Yup... PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1045 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2014 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 06/11/14 TORNADO EVENT... .BRANT TOWNSHIP / ST CHARLES TORNADO... RATING: EF-1 ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90-100 MPH PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 5 MILES PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 300 YARDS FATALITIES: 0 INJURIES: 1 START DATE: JUNE 11...2014 START TIME: 5:55 PM EDT START LOCATION: 6 SW ST CHARLES / SAGINAW COUNTY / MI START LAT/LON: 43.24 / -84.21 END DATE: JUNE 11...2014 END TIME: 6:08 PM EDT END LOCATION: 1 S ST CHARLES / SAGINAW COUNTY / MI END_LAT/LON: 43.29 / -84.13 SURVEY SUMMARY: U.S. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS SURVEYED A TORNADO DAMAGE PATH NEAR ST. CHARLES MICHIGAN. THE DAMAGE WAS CONSISTENT WITH EF-1 TORNADO DAMAGE WITH ESTIMATED PEAK WIND VALUES OF 90-100 MPH. INITIAL EF-0 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED NEAR THE INTERSECTIONS OF MARION AND RAUCHOLZ ROADS...APPROXIMATELY 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ST. CHARLES. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED OF MAINLY TREE LIMBS. DAMAGE INTENSITY INCREASED TO EF-1 ALONG FORDNEY ROAD BETWEEN BRANT AND FERGUS ROADS AND CONTINUED TO THE VICINITY OF RING AND OAKLEY ROADS. SEVERAL LARGE TREES WERE UPROOTED AND MANY MORE WERE DAMAGED SEVERELY...SOME OF WHICH FELL ON ADJACENT DWELLINGS. SOME MINOR TO MODERATE STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WAS ALSO OBSERVED...CONSISTING MAINLY OF PARTIALLY LOST ROOFS...BLOWN OUT GARAGE DOORS AND DESTRUCTION OF OUT BUILDINGS. ADDITIONAL EF-0 DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS M-52 NORTH OF RING ROAD AND CONTINUED TO NEAR SHARON ROAD ON THE FAR SOUTH SIDE OF ST CHARLES. EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES. EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 12, 2014 Share Posted June 12, 2014 growing less enthused for MBY sunday into early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east. Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however. Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas. Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon. Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east. Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however. Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas. Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon. Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. Ha at least you don't get the very sloppy thirds Toledo gets downwind from you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Sunday could be halfway decent for parts of Iowa and Wisconsin, and possibly areas just east. Looks like the usual issues of dealing with the Plains sloppy seconds will COC-block the setup further to the east over these areas however. Shear profiles are less favorable compared to Saturday, as the usual veering of the instability axis further to the east reduces the chances for high quality discrete supercells in these areas. Still, the GFS blows cape up well over 2000j/kg and combined with some decent bulk shear and nice low-level convergence along the advancing front we could see some severe blow up later Sunday afternoon. Probably the usual wind threat, with a few isolated tors with some of the very early stuff. Best severe chances on Sunday should be west of here but I'd rather take my chances with that evolution above compared to a robust early day MCS that wipes out instability for later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Sunday was looking pretty decent a couple days ago but instability seems marginal across E WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 Sunday was looking pretty decent a couple days ago but instability seems marginal across E WI/IL. junk out side something maybe grazing the far western CWA decent heavy rain signal just southwest of here as well Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk come east a bit on future outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised to see the slight risk come east a bit on future outlooks. Agreed. I think there's a decent shot most of our Illinois counties will be in the slight with the day 1. Decent midlevel lapse rates are being advected in during the afternoon which should help with destabilization as long as the higher dewpoint air makes it in after the dry start to the day. Also, deep layer shear is not fantastic but sufficient enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 It's looking like eastern Iowa may be a victim of poor timing for the first round. Monday night through Wednesday we should have a better shot at stronger storms forming near/over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 IWX posted an interesting graph on their Facebook page. This year has surpassed 2012 as a record slow start for severe weather in Northern Indiana. The last three years have been snoozers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 13, 2014 Share Posted June 13, 2014 I am pretty surprised by the 3 0s through June 12th of each year. I bet you'd be hard pressed to find another 3 year stretch like that for IWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 I am pretty surprised by the 3 0s through June 12th of each year. I bet you'd be hard pressed to find another 3 year stretch like that for IWX. I went back prior to 1998... the first tornado warning in 1994 wasn't issued until June 16. 1992 was June 17. 1988 didn't have one until October 16 but I'm not sure if there's anything missing in these older years. Also keep in mind that NWS reorganization means that other offices may have issued warnings for counties in the modern IWX cwa from about the mid 1990s and earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Day 2 slight risk expanded north/east and includes the Chicago and Milwaukee areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Directional shear isn't that great overall and low level hodographs aren't too impressive for tomorrow but maybe just good enough for some isolated tornado potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Slight risk expanded in to most of IL and even parts of IN now... Sent from my SM-G900V Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 14, 2014 Share Posted June 14, 2014 Tomorrow looks like a classic setup over the central MW. Classic because it will feature the usual veering low-levels and lingering precip/cloud issues courtesy of the Plains. Models show just enough instability that we should see some severe develop given the decent bulk shear values. As Hoosier pointed out the best low-level shear is up in Wisconsin, but the instability is pretty lame there. If that area up there can clear out early enough there could be some decent supercells over the crappy chase terrain of Wisconsin. Further to the south shear profiles are sort of meh for supercells, but there looks to be just enough clockwise turning to possibly help spin up a quick tor if a storm can stay discrete long enough. More than likely this will quickly morph into a squall line with some damaging wind potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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