Hoosier Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Nice pics of the landspouts http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=102567&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 GFS is speeding up the initial potential for next week, Monday could be interesting for WI/MI/IL/IN with the strengthening low moving through the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 29, 2014 Author Share Posted May 29, 2014 Nice pics of the landspouts http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ilx&storyid=102567&source=0 El Paso, IL landspout video... https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10154243991150473 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 FWIW from LOT GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH DETAILS OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGHSOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH THE POTENTIALEXISTS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE REGION INTOAT LEAST TUESDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH INTO A VERY WARMAND MOIST AIR MASS. WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OFBOUNDARY COMBINED WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (1.5-2.0INCHES PER GFS SOUNDINGS) WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A HEAVY RAINFALLTHREAT...AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR ESPECIALLY MON-WEDALSO SUGGESTS SEVERE MCS POTENTIAL. FOR NOW HAVE MAINTAINED RATHERBROAD-BRUSHED CHANCE POPS FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...THOUGH DETAILS SUCHAS THE LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (LIKELY MODULATED BYCONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS)...AS WELL AS INDIVIDUAL LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVESWILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TIMING DURING THISPERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 Yeah the GFS continues to differ with the placement of the frontal boundary and what days will have good potential but man will it be juicy south of the boundary with good flow around to do some fun stuff. Heckuva EML coming into the plains and lower Midwest Sun-Weds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2014 Share Posted May 29, 2014 looking forward to a severe MCS or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 Growing less impressed with severe for a good chunk of our sub beyond Monday. Models keep the best instability squashed further south after the Monday wave. Numerous convective complexes would likely shove the focus for deep convection even further south than what's currently shown. Monday is still looking pretty impressive though. Tor potential looks pretty slim to me now, but widespread significant severe is looking possible if trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 wagons south Not based on the 00z Euro and 06z GFS. The 00z Euro looks pretty interesting here, southeast WI and in IN on Thursday and the 06z GFS looks interesting along the warm front in IA, IL and IN on Weds. Obviously still far out but I wouldn't rule out potential on those days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 All it took was for me to bad mouth it a bit, and then the Euro comes in better. Worked like a charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 All it took was for me to bad mouth it a bit, and then the Euro comes in better. Worked like a charm. As far out as it is, 12Z GFS and Euro were in decent agreement on what would be a legit warm front threat across northern/central IL on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Euro is a bit farther north than GFS, but both models are showing good deep layer and low level speed and directional shear over the area. Moisture/LCL heights shouldn't be an issue with pooling along the warm front. It'll be interesting to see how things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2014 Share Posted May 30, 2014 IMO we're definitely still in that time of year when D3+ warm levels trend south but i hope that isn't the case…would love an extended period of active weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 IMO we're definitely still in that time of year when D3+ warm levels trend south but i hope that isn't the case…would love an extended period of active weather. I understand where you're coming from but I don't know if there's a time of year when that concern really ends. It's just that threats may be more likely to originate farther north as the summer months go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 31, 2014 Share Posted May 31, 2014 SPC's liking the chances enough next week to throw out some 30% probs. It looks like they may be favoring the GFS as far as speed of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Nice 6/2/90 redux at the end of the 00z Euro run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 2, 2014 Share Posted June 2, 2014 Nice 6/2/90 redux at the end of the 00z Euro run lol. I was wondering about any similarities to that date. Remember it well for prolific outbreak in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Pretty robust looking severe threat showing up in the Upper Midwest on the 00z GFS for Sunday 6/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Pretty robust looking severe threat showing up in the Upper Midwest on the 00z GFS for Sunday 6/15. That stretch from then into next week is looking pretty favorable for severe weather attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 That stretch from then into next week is looking pretty favorable for severe weather attm. 12z GFS got rid of the first threat, although next week looks to still be open for business. Considering the Euro has absolutely manhandled the GFS in verification at all ranges recently, I'm taking most things it shows likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 12z GFS got rid of the first threat, although next week looks to still be open for business. Considering the Euro has absolutely manhandled the GFS in verification at all ranges recently, I'm taking most things it shows likely. Details can and will change, but having good CAPE and shear is a great way to start and it looks like we will have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 euro looks good enough to me for some action in the sub Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Surprise!! SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN733 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014INC055-102345-/O.CON.KIND.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-140610T2345Z/GREENE IN-733 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GREENE COUNTYUNTIL 745 PM EDT...AT 732 PM EDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOOMFIELD...ANDMOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Probably a landspout, although it is on a warm front but parameters are poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 10, 2014 Share Posted June 10, 2014 Actually two confirmed tornadoes about 25 miles apart. One 10 miles south of Bloomfield and the other 15 miles north of Bloomfield. EMA is going to check our reported damage in the town of Bicknell. EDIT: Mike Ryan at IND said this is in the area of cell mergers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 IF enough instability develops on Wednesday (which is doubtful), the model soundings for Detroit do show a conditional tornado threat. Something to passively keep in mind I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 In Indiana. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN824 PM EDT TUE JUN 10 2014..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0718 PM TORNADO 6 S BLOOMFIELD 38.94N 86.94W06/10/2014 GREENE IN PUBLICLAW ENFORCEMENT RELAYED A PUBLIC REPORT OF A BIG BLACKTORNADO 5 MILES SOUTH OF US 231 AND SR58 MOVING NORTH.TIME APPROXIMATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 In Indiana. That's a rather humorously worded report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Big black tornado? Ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Big black tornado? Ok then. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 11, 2014 Share Posted June 11, 2014 Big black tornado? Ok then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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