2014 Short/Med Range Severe Weather Disco

[Hoosier]

Yeah the 4km NAM is pretty interesting and convection actually looks fairly discrete at CI before congealing a few hours after. 

 

 

With the potentially strongly unstable airmass, there could be a window for some fairly large hail especially before things grow upscale.

[Thundersnow12]

18z 4km NAM continues to keep a pretty dicrete look to convection after initiation till 3z.

[Stebo]

Tomorrow could be sneaky severe here in the evening especially if anything pops, there is a warm front in the area, to be honest the setup looks a bit like last Monday which did end up producing a few tornadoes in the area. The key will be the location of the warm front and how far it can advance into the metro area, I think later on in the evening a squall line would come through especially for the southern half of the area.

[hm8]

Tomorrow could be sneaky severe here in the evening especially if anything pops, there is a warm front in the area, to be honest the setup looks a bit like last Monday which did end up producing a few tornadoes in the area. The key will be the location of the warm front and how far it can advance into the metro area, I think later on in the evening a squall line would come through especially for the southern half of the area.

 

Actually I don't think any tornadoes ended up being confirmed.

 

Regardless, I agree with your thinking.

[Thundersnow12]

0z NAM and GFS are pretty favorable here tomorrow but fire storms fairly early by 21z while the 4km NAM holds stuff off till 0z. Either way, pretty solid environment for some good storms with a chance for a supercell or two if we can get discrete mood. I'll be out and about if anything is worthy of it.

[Stebo]

Actually I don't think any tornadoes ended up being confirmed.

 

Regardless, I agree with your thinking.

 

I am unsure on this to be honest, there were several pictures of funnel clouds that looked close to the ground but they were all small and brief. I am unsure if NWS DTX even went to survey though or just went with EF-0s due to no damage reports.

[hm8]

I am unsure on this to be honest, there were several pictures of funnel clouds that looked close to the ground but they were all small and brief. I am unsure if NWS DTX even went to survey though or just went with EF-0s due to no damage reports.

 

From their FB:

 

No confirmed tornadoes in Southeast Michigan from May 12. After surveying some of the suspected area as well as getting reports from spotters, Emergency Management and other government entities, there is no evidence of any tornadoes in Southeast Michigan. Only damage was a few scattered large limbs in parts of southwest Livingston County.

[Stebo]

From their FB:

 

No confirmed tornadoes in Southeast Michigan from May 12. After surveying some of the suspected area as well as getting reports from spotters, Emergency Management and other government entities, there is no evidence of any tornadoes in Southeast Michigan. Only damage was a few scattered large limbs in parts of southwest Livingston County.

I guess that settles that lol.

[hm8]

4km nam

 

[hm8]

Wednesday's risk northward in the east part

 

 

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1227 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014  
 
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND  
MID-MS VALLEY REGION...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY. VERY LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY  
TORNADOES MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  
   

..OH/MID-MS VALLEY  
 
RIDGE-TOPPING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS  
VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 22/12Z AS 60KT+ 500MB  
SPEED MAX TRANSLATES TO WRN LAKE ERIE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND WILL  
BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS LOWER MI...SWWD INTO NRN IL AT 18Z. CONVECTION  
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z WITHIN AN AIRMASS  
CHARACTERIZED BY DEEP WLY FLOW AND STRONG SPEED SHEAR. SHORT-RANGE  
MODELS ARE LIKELY A BIT TOO MOIST WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS BUT  
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR ROBUST CONVECTION BY  
EARLY AFTERNOON. FRONTAL-INDUCED CONVECTION MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE  
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS TSTMS SPREAD SEWD AT 30-35KT TOWARD THE OH  
VALLEY. WILL MAINTAIN 15 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THIS REGION  
GIVEN THE POSSIBLE OVER MOISTENING OF BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...IF  
AN ORGANIZED SQUALL LINE MATURES BENEATH THE STRONG SPEED MAX A MORE  
WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT COULD UNFOLD ACROSS THIS REGION. SEVERE PROBS  
MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF INSTABILITY REFLECTS LATEST NAM  
GUIDANCE.  
 
..DARROW.. 05/20/2014  
 

[snowlover2]

Noticed in the disco that they again mention models possibly overdoing moisture in the boundry layer but are open to increase probs if a more widespread wind event unfolds.

[hm8]

[hm8]

New D1

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK  
1258 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2014  
 
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO  
UPPER MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...  
 
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH  
PLAINS...  
   
..SUMMARY  
 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXTENDING EAST  
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE  
HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS.  
   
..MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY/OH VALLEY  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY  
TODAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AT  
THE SFC...SLY TO SWLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID MS  
VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO  
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS MAY REACH  
THE LOWER 60S F ACROSS PARTS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ENABLING A  
CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP FROM THE MID TO UPPER MS  
VALLEY EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO  
INITIATE BY LATE AFTERNOON NEAR A SFC TROUGH IN ERN IA AND NWRN IL.  
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINEAR MCS...MOVING ESEWD ACROSS  
THE OH VALLEY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 
NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED FROM PEORIA IL ESEWD TO NEAR  
DAYTON OH SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. THIS SHOULD INITIALLY  
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS CELLS INITIATE ALONG THE  
INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAILSTONES OF GREATER THAN 2  
INCHES IN DIAMETER WITH BE POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS. AS STORM  
COVERAGE INCREASES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...A TRANSITION TO LINEAR MODE  
SHOULD OCCUR AS A FORWARD-PROPAGATING WIND PRODUCING MCS ORGANIZES  
ACROSS THE WRN PART OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NRN IL...NRN IND REACHING CNTRL OH BY  
EARLY TO MID EVENING. AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP  
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.  
   

..BROYLES/BUNTING.. 05/20/2014  
 

 

[Stebo]

I think they are a bit too far south with the risk area, I'd take what they have and shift it north about 50-75 miles.

[snowlover2]

Stebo you called it earlier when you said the day 2 5% area would be upped to 15% on the new day 1. 

[Stebo]

Stebo you called it earlier when you said the day 2 5% area would be upped to 15% on the new day 1. 

Yeah, though I wasn't expecting the 30% wind area that is a bit surprising to me.

[Thundersnow12]

Broyles with a more bullish outlook than what I was expecting

[snowlover2]

Yeah, though I wasn't expecting the 30% wind area that is a bit surprising to me.

There's a hatched in the hail probs too which is probably surprizing also.

[Stebo]

There's a hatched in the hail probs too which is probably surprizing also.

 

Actually that makes sense considering the early evolution of the storms would potentially be discrete supercells before growing into a MCS. With the initial supercells very large hail could be possible which would correlate with the enhanced risk area.

[cyclone77]

Pattern is looking like pure garbage for meaningful severe all through next week.  Some decent mid-level support for maybe something later in the week for the eastern lakes, but for the most part we're gonna have to wait till June for a better pattern.  For those of us in the western MW, Plain states area this is looking very depressing. 

[andyhb]

Early part of next week is looking increasingly interesting on model guidance as the 12z Euro has come around to a stronger/more organized ejection of the upper level trough making landfall this weekend. There seems to be agreement that at least seasonal moisture content will be in place ahead of this thing, which should lead to a broad, potentially strongly unstable warm sector. It currently looks like a potential multi-day event extending from the Central/Northern Plains into the Midwest from Monday 6/2 to Wednesday 6/4.

[MCS_hunter]

Early part of next week is looking increasingly interesting on model guidance as the 12z Euro has come around to a stronger/more organized ejection of the upper level trough making landfall this weekend. There seems to be agreement that at least seasonal moisture content will be in place ahead of this thing, which should lead to a broad, potentially strongly unstable warm sector. It currently looks like a potential multi-day event extending from the Central/Northern Plains into the Midwest from Monday 6/2 to Wednesday 6/4.

Looking at that too.  GFS has 5000 CAPE on Tuesday in western WI but the shear needs improvement.  I'm excited as this is in my area.

[cyclone77]

Tuesday is definitely starting to look interesting for IA/northern IL/parts of MN and WI.  Models are forecasting some tremendous cape, with nice theta-e pooling southeast of the cold front.  Winds are sort of unidirectional, but there may be enough turning in the low levels combined with a very impressive looking vort max structure to kick off some tornadoes.  At least early on. 

 

18z GFS shows 5000j/kg cape over Iowa Tuesday afternoon, although the lower levels are more veered than the 12z. 

[andyhb]

Tuesday is definitely starting to look interesting for IA/northern IL/parts of MN and WI.  Models are forecasting some tremendous cape, with nice theta-e pooling southeast of the cold front.  Winds are sort of unidirectional, but there may be enough turning in the low levels combined with a very impressive looking vort max structure to kick off some tornadoes.  At least early on. 

 

18z GFS shows 5000j/kg cape over Iowa Tuesday afternoon, although the lower levels are more veered than the 12z. 

 

It's going to depend a lot on how strong the ULL/trough is at that point, the Euro suggests a much more intense system is involved on Tuesday with stronger directional shear although that might also cause problems with backing upper level winds given its strong neg tilt.

[Powerball]

Tuesday is definitely starting to look interesting for IA/northern IL/parts of MN and WI.  Models are forecasting some tremendous cape, with nice theta-e pooling southeast of the cold front.  Winds are sort of unidirectional, but there may be enough turning in the low levels combined with a very impressive looking vort max structure to kick off some tornadoes.  At least early on. 

 

18z GFS shows 5000j/kg cape over Iowa Tuesday afternoon, although the lower levels are more veered than the 12z. 

 

It looks like it could be a decent setup for some long lived MCSs as well.

[Stebo]

Yeah I am definitely interested in Tuesday and Wednesday next week, there certainly won't be an absence of instability that is for sure.

[vortex]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
203 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL MCLEAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  NORTHEASTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 200 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR EL PASO...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO.

  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND VEHICLES.

[Indystorm]

Probable landspout.

[Thundersnow12]

Monday and Tuesday look pretty solid and fun around here for some good severe weather.

[Quincy]

Monday and Tuesday look pretty solid and fun around here for some good severe weather.

If the GFS is correct, there would be severe threats each day from Sunday through Wednesday beginning in the Upper Plains and extending into portions of the Midwest and Lakes region. The wind fields grow more impressive into Tue/Wed as well.