Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Will work just as the thread did last year... For threats too far out for a thread, or near term/now events that are minor and not thread worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well needless to say the last few model cycles, especially with the Euro, have been interesting regarding next week. One of the main questions I have is which system will become more dominant since the GFS is favouring the latter and the Euro the former currently (ensembles generally tracking alongside their respective operationals as expected). UK generally seems to be running in the Euro's direction and the GGEM is off on its own track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like another interesting run from the 12z Euro. Timing issues definitely need to be worked out with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro goes back to having both systems with potential. In particular for the first system this Euro run, the evolution aloft reminds me of the November event except shifted a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro goes back to having both systems with potential. In particular for the first system this Euro run, the evolution aloft reminds me of the November event except shifted a bit south. And so it begins...now every out of season event will be compared to that one. j/k I see some similarities but it's difficult to make meaningful comparisons until we settle on a solution...and even then the mesoscale aspects may differ. I know you know this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like another interesting run from the 12z Euro. Timing issues definitely need to be worked out with this. Agreed. WIll give us something new to track the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agreed. WIll give us something new to track the next few days. Brought it up in the other thread but the snowpack angle interests me. If the Euro solution of a more robust and earlier system works out, it seems unlikely that all of the snow will be wiped out in time especially farther north. I can't recall any big severe weather events with significant snow on the ground. Smaller outbreaks yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 And so it begins...now every out of season event will be compared to that one. j/k I see some similarities but it's difficult to make meaningful comparisons until we settle on a solution...and even then the mesoscale aspects may differ. I know you know this though. Yeah that was just in the synoptic aspect with the orientation of the upper trough and surface low strength/track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro goes back to having both systems with potential. In particular for the first system this Euro run, the evolution aloft reminds me of the November event except shifted a bit south. Can someone post the EURO images from the timeframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirSonic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I was looking at the models, Thursday could be a fairly significant event over the Ohio Valley Region, the euro looks more impressive. Then on the weekend looks like there could be another fairly significant event, The GFS has been showing the threat for the past few days. But there is tons of time for ironing out the threat areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ECMWF is hellbent on blowing up the Thursday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The Thu system is the first system I've seen in quite some time to truly get excited about. Looks like a very dynamic system. At least with a system like that even if you're on the losing end of whatever, the system as a whole will still be very interesting to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 nothing exciting to watch unfold for a winter wanker in the mw this yr and the late week storm will follow suit on all levels..... watch out east if you want interesting. 2 bombs in 5 days sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ECMWF is hellbent on blowing up the Thursday system. Yeah, unlike the GFS it has been relentless on this system being significant. Considering this isn't a northwest flow event, I would lean toward the Euro as it tends to have a better handling on these sorts of systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Kinna scared that we torch if the euro is going nuts this early.. not like it doesn't struggle with holding back pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 nothing exciting to watch unfold for a winter wanker in the mw this yr and the late week storm will follow suit on all levels..... watch out east if you want interesting. 2 bombs in 5 days sweet. You can find much worse winters than this in terms of overall excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You can find much worse winters than this in terms of overall excitement. this yr has been no better than the last 2 junk ones for snow excitement here. meh snow winter.. cold was meh+ with lack of good radiating nights.. but we adjust and I'm sadly actually surprised how well folks are taking it here and that's why I want another cold march and april.. Summer is already doomed below normal, thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You can find much worse winters than this in terms of overall excitement. you can find a ton of winters with less excitement for MKE...the problem is they are repeatedly JUST missing much more exciting weather. As an example next winter they could be the jackpot of a less than stellar winter, and it will seem better...but when you put the winters side by side 2013-14 would be more wintry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Didn't take long to derail the severe thread with snow talk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 severe thread in feb, lol.. maybe one of these yrs we'll have an early start like some have predicted for yrs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 severe thread in feb, lol.. maybe one of these yrs we'll have an early start like some have predicted for yrs now. This is the thread for the year with respect to potentials and discussion. Just like that winter thread that started back in August. Furthermore there is a potential within the next 7 days so it isn't exactly 'lol'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 peeeling line out.. good luck with the severe next week gonna need it more than i need for snow the next 2 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 you can find a ton of winters with less excitement for MKE...the problem is they are repeatedly JUST missing much more exciting weather. As an example next winter they could be the jackpot of a less than stellar winter, and it will seem better...but when you put the winters side by side 2013-14 would be more wintry. Yes, in fact last year seemed more interesting and better overall for Milwaukee since there were a lot of cutters through or just east of Wisconsin, whereas this year everything is just suppressed enough into the Ohio Valley even though we already have usurped last year's total snowfall. Anyways, that is for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Not saying the potential isn't there but outside chicago storm driving a few hundred miles south to catch pics of grocery bags flying across fields into tree's I'm not feeling much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What kind of turns me off to the Euro solution for Thursday is the trough out west is rather broad, and not all that deep. If we can get a bit of ridging off the west coast and get any shortwaves to dig a little more maybe we can get something impressive. All of the models show the Gulf opening up on Wednesday so I do think that if a strong storm verifies on Thursday that moisture return won't be a huge issue. I'd have to think that if we get a storm to bomb to near or below 980mb that the low level flow would be strong enough to advect sufficient warmth/moisture to at least the Ohio River if not farther north, despite the snowpack, because temperatures always seem to over perform in the warm sector of strong lows in winter, and as we saw on Halloween (at least in Ohio), 11/17, and 12/21 (at least in Ohio) it doesn't take much to get damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes if you have a strong enough LLJ, but again I'm not sold on such a strong solution for Thursday. It will be interesting to watch what happens if it does pan out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yes, in fact last year seemed more interesting and better overall for Milwaukee since there were a lot of cutters through or just east of Wisconsin, whereas this year everything is just suppressed enough into the Ohio Valley even though we already have usurped last year's total snowfall. Anyways, that is for another thread. losts of cutters dickered us through april last yr. we can't even get close to a warning event potential this yr outside the fluke in dec. I dare a cutter or two next week. too much snow and drifts on the ice anyways and need a meltdown for easy truck travel anywhere on the lake going in to the cold down and march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What kind of turns me off to the Euro solution for Thursday is the trough out west is rather broad, and not all that deep. If we can get a bit of ridging off the west coast and get any shortwaves to dig a little more maybe we can get something impressive. All of the models show the Gulf opening up on Wednesday so I do think that if a strong storm verifies on Thursday that moisture return won't be a huge issue. I'd have to think that if we get a storm to bomb to near or below 980mb that the low level flow would be strong enough to advect sufficient warmth/moisture to at least the Ohio River if not farther north, despite the snowpack, because temperatures always seem to over perform in the warm sector of strong lows in winter, and as we saw on Halloween (at least in Ohio), 11/17, and 12/21 (at least in Ohio) it doesn't take much to get damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes if you have a strong enough LLJ, but again I'm not sold on such a strong solution for Thursday. It will be interesting to watch what happens if it does pan out though. Originally I was thinking more along the lines that the second piece would be the one that would be the significant potential, similar to the GFS before tonight's run. Problem is, what looked to have some sort of a model consensus has completely gone awry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Didn't take long to derail the severe thread with snow talk... Are you really surprised though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What kind of turns me off to the Euro solution for Thursday is the trough out west is rather broad, and not all that deep. If we can get a bit of ridging off the west coast and get any shortwaves to dig a little more maybe we can get something impressive. All of the models show the Gulf opening up on Wednesday so I do think that if a strong storm verifies on Thursday that moisture return won't be a huge issue. I'd have to think that if we get a storm to bomb to near or below 980mb that the low level flow would be strong enough to advect sufficient warmth/moisture to at least the Ohio River if not farther north, despite the snowpack, because temperatures always seem to over perform in the warm sector of strong lows in winter, and as we saw on Halloween (at least in Ohio), 11/17, and 12/21 (at least in Ohio) it doesn't take much to get damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes if you have a strong enough LLJ, but again I'm not sold on such a strong solution for Thursday. It will be interesting to watch what happens if it does pan out though. The s/w in question looks pretty strong though on the Euro and it goes ape with a pronounced negative tilt by 144 hours. In some ways these types of setups have the potential to be more dangerous...for one, a more meridional trough would likely lead to really crappy mid level lapse rates across the warm sector. Euro consistency has been impressive but still a little early to bank on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Are you really surprised though. Not in the slightest unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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