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2/19-2/23 mild up


Mikehobbyst

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Discuss... Looks like 36-40 degree highs at best after Tuesday's Southwest flow event snows, and only an 8-12 hour period of 45-50 degree temps by next weekend.   Snowpack may only lose 30 percent depth when the mild up ends and another 20 day cold period looks to set up based on models.  Looks very cold beginning half of March with more negative 10 days possible, maybe some moderation by mid month.  I think we keep snow pack through March 25th, and I am being serious.  Wonder if we get an early March blockbuster with -NAO and MJO in phase 8/1 for awhile .......  Discuss...

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After the warmup next week, the pattern looks to reload with a trough over the east, possibly more snow events though to trough axis may be too far east and no -NAO or high latitude blocking. PNA is favorable though.  Who knows, maybe we can make a run for the snowiest winter on record.

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After the warmup next week, the pattern looks to reload with a trough over the east, possibly more snow events though to trough axis may be too far east and no -NAO or high latitude blocking. PNA is favorable though. Who knows, maybe we can make a run for the snowiest winter on record.

-epo returns, we get a pos pna, nao goes neutral, and mjo in phase 8. At least thats what long range progs are showing. Pattern seems ripe for something nice next week.
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Discuss... Looks like 36-40 degree highs at best after Tuesday's Southwest flow event snows, and only an 8-12 hour period of 45-50 degree temps by next weekend.   Snowpack may only lose 30 percent depth when the mild up ends and another 20 day cold period looks to set up based on models.  Looks very cold beginning half of March with more negative 10 days possible, maybe some moderation by mid month.  I think we keep snow pack through March 25th, and I am being serious.  Wonder if we get an early March blockbuster with -NAO and MJO in phase 8/1 for awhile .......  Discuss...

guaranteed there will be a period of time before march 25th that a majority of NYC metro except the north and west high terrain will have only the large piles left which will be reduced to smaller piles - have to take into consideration - sun angle - length of day - that march sun on a 45 - 50 degree day can really do a number on a snowpack especially if we have a rainstorm instead of sunshine at 50 - and there will be increasing numbers of those types of sunny days and more liquid then frozen as we march through March

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I've noticed that winters either "want to snow" or "don't want to snow." Any thoughts on why that is?

I think it's the pattern and storm track for the seasons that either give us snow or no snow...This year the cold and storm track plus amount of storms is why we have so much snow...

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guaranteed there will be a period of time before march 25th that a majority of NYC metro except the north and west high terrain will have only the large piles left which will be reduced to smaller piles - have to take into consideration - sun angle - length of day - that march sun on a 45 - 50 degree day can really do a number on a snowpack especially if we have a rainstorm instead of sunshine at 50 - and there will be increasing numbers of those types of sunny days and more liquid then frozen as we march through March

By now, you should know there's no reasoning with the Hobbyist... he has his feelings/vibes/hunches and will not be dissuaded!

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guaranteed there will be a period of time before march 25th that a majority of NYC metro except the north and west high terrain will have only the large piles left which will be reduced to smaller piles - have to take into consideration - sun angle - length of day - that march sun on a 45 - 50 degree day can really do a number on a snowpack especially if we have a rainstorm instead of sunshine at 50 - and there will be increasing numbers of those types of sunny days and more liquid then frozen as we march through March

Agreed. March sun angle will eat snow even on below normal temperature days.  Even today we had melting.    A couple of nights that don't go below freezing will soften the pack and some rain and fog will really eat the snowpack.

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The snowpack out my way is taking a hit on days where it doesn't get above freezing but we have full sun. You can already feel how warm the sun is already. Go outside and stand in the sun and then the shade and you'll notice the difference right away. With that said it's not to the point yet where it would hurt our chances at an accumulating snow event. We're peaking now and we'll start to rapidly decline in our chances at a big one in about two weeks.

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Yeah, I was outside today at 27F and the sound of dripping water was deafening in all directions. Cars parked in the morning sun are now comfortably warm to enter. The beginning of the end, to be sure, but we're not going down without a fight.

 

As an aside, I think there's something like three or four threads about the same vague warm-up/reload period, and it's a tad confusing.

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