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February Banter II


jburns

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If the Euro is anywhere close to right, I'd think we'd have a shot at getting a good snowfall with the ULL.  The Euro has it too warm, but I'm not sure I buy that.  It reminds me of the ULL on 2/13.

 

RDU does get a decent front-end thump of snow, in any case.

 

 

I think personally the Euro is too warm period. With a setup like that the models aren't see the cold air. For example hour 144 and 168. Precip stretched out from  La to GA but the 850 temp is in KY. Thermally that doesn't make sense considering there is a large sprawling HP and to only have pockets of below 32.

 

It makes more sense for the 0c line to halfway through the precip shield. But either way still too early to get in on the specifics. But if the trends hold there should be snow on the ground from this system from La northern half of MS,AL,GA up into SC,NC,VA,DE,MD,NJ.

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Going to be crazy nest week to go from almost 70 on Monday to snow a few days later. But it seems we often get extreme swings in the weather when we transition from one season to the next.

 

I'm no met, but I think it has something to do with the word I bolded in your post.

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I          h   a   v   e             d   e   c   i   d   e   d               t   o             a   d   j   u   s   t             m   y         t   y   p   i   n   g       s   p   e   e   d          t   o          m   a   t   c   h        t   h   e          s   p   e   e  d         o   f         t   h   e          f   o   r   u   m.    

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Looks good now, which is scary! It didn't pan out when we were suppose to get 10-16 the day before the storm, so maybe getting 20 inches at 6 days out, will work better for us?

 

Well the 18z GFS looks like crap, which actually makes me feel better. I'll try to send some mojo your way this time

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It's a different kind of crap, though.  The HP holds in longer, but we get no storm.  I'll take that over the warm rainstorm alternative at this point.

 

I'll take my HP and keep the GFS suppressing/no storm any day of the week. When I'm in the 18z jackpot, that's when I run away screaming

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Looks good now, which is scary! It didn't pan out when we were suppose to get 10-16 the day before the storm, so maybe getting 20 inches at 6 days out, will work better for us?

Could be a good philosophy. We've had a good history of cutoff lows in the Upstate. The slow crawling lows have given us our biggest snowfalls, including the '88 storm.

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I          h   a   v   e             d   e   c   i   d   e   d               t   o             a   d   j   u   s   t             m   y         t   y   p   i   n   g       s   p   e   e   d          t   o          m   a   t   c   h        t   h   e          s   p   e   e  d         o   f         t   h   e          f   o   r   u   m.    

  

 

LOL, what the heck was going on

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We'll the dot has treated all the roads over my way for tomorrow's virga storm. Sitting in the upper 20's just need some moisture to make it to the ground. love the 4 contour lp sitting over Savannah on the euro.Perfect setup , but 5 days away. If the euro ops and ens with the Canadian can hold serve tonight or better put the next 3 / 12 hour runs, then we are in business. Days 4-6 are the euro wheelhouse so the next 3 runs are huge IMO.

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We'll the dot has treated all the roads over my way for tomorrow's virga storm. Sitting in the upper 20's just need some moisture to make it to the ground. love the 4 contour lp sitting over Savannah on the euro.Perfect setup , but 5 days away. If the euro ops and ens with the Canadian can hold serve tonight or better put the next 3 / 12 hour runs, then we are in business. Days 4-6 are the euro wheelhouse so the next 3 runs are huge IMO.

 

Not to worry.  I'm sure they used that new virga brine.  You can see it when it comes out of the sprayer, but it evaporates before it hits the road.

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