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February Banter II

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Larry and packbacker are having heart palpitations watching the Euro maps come in!  Makes me glad I don't pay $ to see those maps.  My ticker can't take it!

It's really hard not to get excited after seeing the euro..even if it's 6 plus days away. Even though the models generally agree on the main players, one has to temper expectations and not get too excited. But If it happened as advertised on the 12z euro, man this winter would be inducted  into the weather hall of fame for just about everyone east of the rockies.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Wow look at the Euro 850mb temps at 168 hours.

http://climate.cod.edu/data/forecast/ECMWF/12/US/ecmwfUS_850_temp_168.gif

Need to see what the surface temps look like and if there is any precip left.

 

You're in the upper 30s at the surface but there's really not any precip left by that time.  I guess you can't rule at flurries or something, though, as there's some trace amounts of precip hanging around.  850s are supportive and surface temperatures might support white rain flurries.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Happy to see GA might be a part of a winter storm, but I do not want to be in the sweet spot this far out... There is always a trend. only exception is March '93, which was predicted 6 days out? 

 

I thought about that as well. On the other hand, you have to ask yourself if you would rather it show this or it being 500 miles further north and rain or crushed into nothing...and dry as a bone. So although we know from tortured experience that being in the jackpot so early normally does not work out, it's really hard to say "damn, i hate that it's showing lots of snow for us..I wish it was showing a cold rain or dry" :arrowhead: I doubt many people actually say that to themselves lol

Climatology is on our side too... biggest storms in this neck of the woods happen around the first week in March. In 2004, some places saw over 20" around this time... so it's not completely insane.

yeah the tendency for upper lows to cutoff this time of year makes things a lot more interesting at times and can cause some crazy stuff to happen for those lucky enough to be under them.

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

if the trends keep up this will be one that i take a little road trip for.... its nice to see models starting to come around but its still far out to get excited about... although the cmc and euro seem to be close the last model run.... i think most are hesitant because it is march and climo etc..... it will be interesting to see how this grand minima will start affecting the winters around here if it is true.. 

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Ok so who's got the goods on a clown map? :D

 

I'll spit out verbatim totals from our favorite clown, the WeatherBell clown!  :yikes:

 

ATL: ~13"

CAE: ~13"

GSP: ~20"

CLT: ~15"

GSO: ~12"

HKY: ~14"

RDU: ~7"

PGV: ~3" (This is front-end snow before the changeover)

 

Of course, a significant portion of those totals, especially in SC and GA, are not snow.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

I'll spit out verbatim totals from our favorite clown, the WeatherBell clown!  :yikes:

 

ATL: ~13"

CAE: ~13"

GSP: ~20"

CLT: ~15"

GSO: ~12"

HKY: ~14"

RDU: ~7"

PGV: ~3" (This is front-end snow before the changeover)

 

Of course, a significant portion of those totals, especially in SC and GA, are not snow.

 

Thanks, James!!  I'll take my 7"...although on my side of the county, that's probably 2-3".  Then accounting for IP/ZR, that's probably like 0.5", but whatever...it's cool. :)

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Thanks, James!!  I'll take my 7"...although on my side of the county, that's probably 2-3".  Then accounting for IP/ZR, that's probably like 0.5", but whatever...it's cool. :)

 

If the Euro is anywhere close to right, I'd think we'd have a shot at getting a good snowfall with the ULL.  The Euro has it too warm, but I'm not sure I buy that.  It reminds me of the ULL on 2/13.

 

RDU does get a decent front-end thump of snow, in any case.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

I'll spit out verbatim totals from our favorite clown, the WeatherBell clown!  :yikes:

 

ATL: ~13"

CAE: ~13"

GSP: ~20"

CLT: ~15"

GSO: ~12"

HKY: ~14"

RDU: ~7"

PGV: ~3" (This is front-end snow before the changeover)

 

Of course, a significant portion of those totals, especially in SC and GA, are not snow.

Looks like 0.50 to 0.75 would be either sleet, or freezing rain or both and that would occur at the start over north georgia.  Giving the strength of the wedge, I think it's more likely to be sleet. North ga still gets a lot of snow regardless with another 1.25 to 1.5 inches falling as snow. Total liquid is 1.75 to  2 inches and there would be crazy amounts no matter what.

 

Verbatim, the upstate would get similar liquid totals because the euro has it changing to rain (or sleet) toward the end (about 0.50 worth) but i don't really buy that. over 2 inch liquid falls over the upstate altogether.

 

Of course this being so far out it's silly to talk specifics like this but it's probably our last shot so what the hell, it's still fun

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

If the Euro is anywhere close to right, I'd think we'd have a shot at getting a good snowfall with the ULL.  The Euro has it too warm, but I'm not sure I buy that.  It reminds me of the ULL on 2/13.

 

RDU does get a decent front-end thump of snow, in any case.

 

My feeling is that if the Euro is correct on the high pressure placement and strength, the near surface temps (if not the 850s) are likely too warm, given the strengthening system and the nature of the source cold.  If we can lay down a snow pack up north earlier in the week, that's all the better.

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WXinCanton

WXinCanton

Posted
Posted

Looks like 0.50 to 0.75 would be either sleet, or freezing rain or both and that would occur at the start over north georgia.  Giving the strength of the wedge, I think it's more likely to be sleet. North ga still gets a lot of snow regardless with another 1.25 to 1.5 inches falling as snow. Total liquid is 1.75 to  2 inches and there would be crazy amounts no matter what.

 

Verbatim, the upstate would get similar liquid totals because the euro has it changing to rain (or sleet) toward the end (about 0.50 worth) but i don't really buy that. over 2 inch liquid falls over the upstate altogether.

 

Of course this being so far out it's silly to talk specifics like this but it's probably our last shot so what the hell, it's still fun

That would truly make this winter one the record books.   And the winter of the IP for MBY.  One thing is for sure this winter has had plenty of entertainment vs. the previous couple.  Seems every two weeks we have had something good to track.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

Going to be crazy nest week to go from almost 70 on Monday to snow a few days later. But it seems we often get extreme swings in the weather when we transition from one season to the next.

Speaking of crazy. I can't get over this forecast for tomorrow from gsp for the upstate and nc foothills

 

Chance of

Freezing Rain

High: 61 °F

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timnc910

timnc910

Posted
Posted

last storm was kind of a similar set up.. here in the se part of nc we were forecasted as more ice than snow... well about 8 that morning it started raining then about 10 it started snowing real heavy and kept on till sunset that evening. it was the heaviest and biggest snow flakes i have seen..... we didn't get much out of the ull but the sfc low sure did the trick for us... if we get a stronger high than last time there is no telling what happens.. they sure didn't forecast or mention the 6 inches of snow we got in the se portion nor did the models pick up on it until the last 24 hrs where the hrrr and rap picked up on it

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