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February Banter II


jburns

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This takes me back.  I taught in Floyd, VA in the 70s.  Spent the winter of 77 there.  We went back to school 1 day after Christmas and that was it for Jan. It was also the location of well over 30" of snow the last couple days of April in 1979, a story I related here before.  Floyd always seems to jackpot with the setup we had for this last storm.  This time was no exception.  Close to 30".

 

http://www.wdbj7.com/news/local/floyd-county-digs-out-from-nearly-30-inches/24492966#.Uv7DOs0hV9Y.facebook

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So what screwed everybody in the last storm? Gulf convection? Warm nose stronger than progged? Not enough moisture in the snow growth region? Storm not bombing out? All of the above?

Just goes to show how many different things have to work out perfectly to get a huge snowstorm. A true Miller A is easier, I guess, but we don't really get those much anymore. I wonder why that is?

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So what screwed everybody in the last storm? Gulf convection? Warm nose stronger than progged? Not enough moisture in the snow growth region? Storm not bombing out? All of the above?

Just goes to show how many different things have to work out perfectly to get a huge snowstorm. A true Miller A is easier, I guess, but we don't really get those much anymore. I wonder why that is?

 

I think it was the warm nose.  I was pretty close to predicted QPF.  But switched to ZR and never really had any front end snow, just some IP.  

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I think it was the warm nose.  I was pretty close to predicted QPF.  But switched to ZR and never really had any front end snow, just some IP.  

 

 Just to clarify per Euro/consensus: ATL and even into the northern burbs near you weren't supposed to get snow until the last portion of the 2nd wave, which is when the snow fell. The 850's were always progged to be in the +1 to +3 range in the northern burbs. That tends to be mainly IP territory when in a wedge assuming the precip. isn't very light though there was some ZR, too. I haven't found any sig. ATL area snow that fell when the 850's were generally in the +1 to +3 range. The bulk was often IP assuming decent falls of precip. and a good wedge. Even though I got an impressive amount of IP in two waves (most since 1/88..~2.5"), it was actually a little lighter than I had expected due to some R/ZR for the first few hours. Otherwise, I would have had the 3-4" of IP that I was expecting. Together with the ~1.5" of snow, I estimate ~4" total IP/SN plus ~1/10" of ice accrural, a major storm overall and the biggest for me in four years.

 

 The Euro clown maps should always be thrown out/ignored as they ignore the atmosphere above the ground. Ttoal qpf was ~1", which while normally quite impressive and more than enough for a major event, wasn't the 1.5" predicted by the last Euro right before it started.

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So what screwed everybody in the last storm? Gulf convection? Warm nose stronger than progged? Not enough moisture in the snow growth region? Storm not bombing out? All of the above?

Just goes to show how many different things have to work out perfectly to get a huge snowstorm. A true Miller A is easier, I guess, but we don't really get those much anymore. I wonder why that is?

All the above
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So what screwed everybody in the last storm? Gulf convection? Warm nose stronger than progged? Not enough moisture in the snow growth region? Storm not bombing out? All of the above?

Just goes to show how many different things have to work out perfectly to get a huge snowstorm. A true Miller A is easier, I guess, but we don't really get those much anymore. I wonder why that is?

storm was too far east. I did not get a foot!
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so eastern nc is 500% climo central nc 150-200% above climo(except for brick who averages 70 inches) and the mtns below climo. Rule of thumb here, if central nc is going to do well snow wise with a storm, it will not be a big one for the mtns.

More like 150%-200% here in the east we average 4-6" and have had 11" IMBY between all 4 events that have covered the ground here.

 

Edit: there are parts of eastern NC though that are 500% or even better lol

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so eastern nc is 500% climo central nc 150-200% above climo(except for brick who averages 70 inches) and the mtns below climo. Rule of thumb here, if central nc is going to do well snow wise with a storm, it will not be a big one for the mtns.

You'll get plastered in March. I think RDU is still below climo, but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Pack would know.

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You'll get plastered in March. I think RDU is still below climo, but I'm too lazy to look it up right now. Pack would know.

Yes we are below climo for the season. CLT, HKY and GSO are at climo for the past 5 years now, RDU is about 68% after this last storm, unofficially. I believe PGV received more snow than RDU this week for about the 47th time in a row, maybe more, they had 4" on Tuesday and I think they got 1-2" on Wed. Need the final map from RAH and I will update my SE snow totals thread. So we will be the only location on that list below climo for the past 5 years, much below normal at that. CLT and GSO I believe are over 10" on the season, will confirm when final map released. It's been 10 years since our last 10"+ season total which is a record. We still suck...

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Sitting on 3.75" here. A little under our yearly avg at 5 ( I think it is 5"). So, still holding out hope for another system.

so eastern nc is 500% climo central nc 150-200% above climo(except for brick who averages 70 inches) and the mtns below climo. Rule of thumb here, if central nc is going to do well snow wise with a storm, it will not be a big one for the mtns.

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Yes we are below climo for the season. CLT, HKY and GSO are at climo for the past 5 years now, RDU is about 68% after this last storm, unofficially. I believe PGV received more snow than RDU this week for about the 47th time in a row, maybe more, they had 4" on Tuesday and I think they got 1-2" on Wed. Need the final map from RAH and I will update my SE snow totals thread. So we will be the only location on that list below climo for the past 5 years, much below normal at that. CLT and GSO I believe are over 10" on the season, will confirm when final map released. It's been 10 years since our last 10"+ season total which is a record. We still suck...

GSP hasn't had 10 inches since 1993. Between 59/60 and 92/93 it has double digits 14 times. And prior to that it had double digits every few years. Snowfall has really declined here in the upstate. 

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