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February Banter II


jburns

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You guys are slipping....DGEX FTW...this is all day 5-6 event.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

 

PGV jackpot.  Book it.

 

-------

 

BTW, tonight's 00z NAM was pretty wet.  It showed ice rather than snow for the CAD regions, but wet nevertheless.  Looks like it decided to back away from the snow solutions, but it would be a halfway decent ice event with probably 0.1-0.25" of accretion in the CAD regions (maybe less if we sleet some).  Looks snowier for the mountains.  There might have been a little front-end snow in the lowlands, too, but probably not.

 

EDIT: Actually, the Weatherbell higher-resolution maps look interesting.  Looks like the snow line sets up right across downtown Greensboro and those north of that line get a few hours of decent snow rates before changing over to ZR and/or IP.  Looks like it would be almost all snow closer to the border.  It might even start out as snow in Raleigh.  Surface temperatures are in the upper 20s.

 

The GFS just showed a light glaze, but nothing to write home about.  It's pretty dry (mostly <0.10" QPF).

 

EDIT #2: Well, maybe there's a warm nose in there somewhere or the snow growth region isn't sufficiently cold enough on the 00z NAM, because the COBB output has GSO in for 0.39" QPF worth of freezing rain (realistically, 0.25" of accretion?).  Pretty intense rates with temperatures in the upper 20s (would be 1"+/hr snowfall rates if it were snow).  I'm not too sure how reliable the COBB data is insofar as P-types go, though.

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0Z NAM shows for my location (KMRN) 1 inch of snow followed by .15 of freezing rain.  That would be some tricky travel early saturday morning here.  The .15 that falls as freezing rain according to the extracted data would be close to snow as the 850 temp is 0.1

 

Surface temps are 27-30 degrees when precip is falling.

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Hate to say it but it was 33 and rain on the NAM for GSP. Only .05 of QPF.

33 and rain , should be my signature! I'm waiting on the GGEM and see if the Euro op run comes around for the 3/6 event!? The GFS and Euro are really worlds apart! What did 00z GFS show for cold? Did it back off the crazy cold?
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Wow after the decent run on the euro no one is talking about it. Had a couple flurries here in se nc last night and the talk of more sat morning per local mets.

Well 4 days ago the Op Euro was showing a nice winter storm for this Saturday (3/1). Euro is really struggling with spitting out these fantasy 7-10 winter storms. If Euro has something like last night within day 6 then it might be different. CMC ENS do agree as does Euro ENS but not buying it. Let's see come Sunday 12z. Looking forward to 60-70's on Sunday/Monday.

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The 97% verification score on the Euro combined with the fact of how well it did with our last storm makes it hard to bet against.  Not to mention it has support from its ensembles.  

 

 

7 days out, plenty of time to talk about it.  Need to see some consistency

 

This might be looking like the last winter storm. I think the models did the same thing then, with all of them flip flopping for a while between days 7 and 10, and then when we got to 7 days out the Euro started trending better, and the other models slowly followed.

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