metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lol my bad y'all. He usually has this when he is being sarcastic I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Good grief. "Humor...it is a difficult concept." For some, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lol my bad y'all. He usually has this when he is being sarcastic I think. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Lol my bad y'all. He usually has this when he is being sarcastic I think. I wished I lived in Waycross. . . . . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MetalMan supposedly not picking up on the sarcasm may be trolling to get attention. I don't think he's that dumb. I suspect he may very well be aware of the sarcasm but perhaps just wants replies based on the assumption he isn't aware of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2014 Author Share Posted February 24, 2014 I wished I lived in Waycross. . . . . . . We polled a studio audience of 100 people about where they would least like to live. 87% Waycross, Ga 9% Hell 4% Detroit, Mi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 MetalMan supposedly not picking up on the sarcasm may be trolling to get attention. I don't think he's that dumb. I suspect he may very well be aware of the sarcasm but perhaps just wants replies based on the assumption he isn't aware of it.Come on. I didn't read it at first as sarcasm. I thought he was being serious and I was going to correct him with maybe the exception of Washington DC. I don't think they are above average. By the way this post doesn't make sense, why would I want people to think I'm dumb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 LOL: http://www.northeastusweather.com/2014/02/24/significant-storm-system-to-affect-100-million-people-during-the-first-week-of-march/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Come on. I didn't read it at first as sarcasm. I thought he was being serious and I was going to correct him with maybe the exception of Washington DC. I don't think they are above average. By the way this post doesn't make sense, why would I want people to think I'm dumb? Do you really think Mack is that ignorant of the NE snow that has been neverending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 We polled a studio audience of 100 people about where they would least like to live. 87% Waycross, Ga 9% Hell 4% Detroit, Mi I have a response but it's not appropriate, so I'll leave it at that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Do you really think Mack is that ignorant of the NE snow that has been neverending?Yeah! I'm not as advanced at model reading and analysis as most on here, even metal. But I'm very observant and have been fascinated with weather , especially wintry weather, since I can remember! Trust me , if I'm not getting snow, I will be watching to see who is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Up in the Northeast their skies must get some really good vaccinations... ours would never heal with that kind snow back to back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Up in the Northeast their skies must get some really good vaccinations... ours would never heal with that kind snow back to back to back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Really doesn't look good for wintry weather when most of the talk is in the February Banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 Do you really think Mack is that ignorant of the NE snow that has been neverending?No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 18z GFS is just stupid. -20C and lower 850s are over most of NC by hr 384. Lows probably easily in the low teens or single digits. Mid-March is gonna be rockin'! Oh, and ROCKIN' MARCH, BABY!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 The 18z GFS is just stupid. -20C and lower 850s are over most of NC by hr 384. Lows probably easily in the low teens or single digits. Mid-March is gonna be rockin'! Oh, and ROCKIN' MARCH, BABY!!! Think we saw tha show last week!?I hope it's right this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 24, 2014 Share Posted February 24, 2014 I seen some redbud trees blooming along with pink cherry trees. Dafs and tulips are behind this year. Spring time is in the air but thats about to come to a temporary end and tonight the frogs shut up for a while. They've barking day and night for like the last week. But if I had to hibernate in the ground I'd be hungry and horny too right about now. But I'm going all in till my chips run out around the first of April even though its rare. With this unusual cold +AO dominated winter I know April is on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Here is a good read for the "Toss the 06z/18z runs!!!" crowd: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Here is a good read for the "Toss the 06z/18z runs!!!" crowd: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/wx24fy/doc/GFS4cycle_GCWMB_briefing_13dec2012_fyang.pdfIt's the 18z , throw it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All the cycles have there weaknesses and strengths at some point, so we can't just throw away any model cycle reading that. The 6z is the worse run, but not by that much. Hell if we are going to toss the 6z GFS, might as well toss the CMC, RGEM, NAM, and other worse models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 All the cycles have there weaknesses and strengths at some point, so we can't just throw away any model cycle reading that. The 6z is the worse run, but not by that much. Hell if we are going to toss the 6z GFS, might as well toss the CMC, RGEM, NAM, and other worse models. I don't think the 6z GFS is statistically significantly worse than any of the other three GFS model runs. They're all nearly identical, which is the point. They're really no reason to toss any GFS run based on it being the 18z run, 06z run, or whatever. BTW, the CMC has higher verification scores than the GFS, so I'm not sure about tossing it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The GFS would actually be a good model if it didn't suck so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 I don't think the 6z GFS is statistically significantly worse than any of the other three GFS model runs. They're all nearly identical, which is the point. They're really no reason to toss any GFS run based on it being the 18z run, 06z run, or whatever. BTW, the CMC has higher verification scores than the GFS, so I'm not sure about tossing it..... CMC has been doing good, see below. I will say this is the first year in a while that I wouldn't mind seeing some flakes in March, usually I am all in for Spring and 70F weather. Hopefully we can get lucky and see an inch or something. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 Wow, honestly didn't know the CMC was that good. I guess I think of it as a horrid model because of how it performs during hurricane. I'm going to start looking at the CMC more. I usually only look at the GFS and Euro with and their ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The GFS would actually be a good model if it didn't suck so bad. I think you mentioned this in the main thread but the 18z GFS has less than 1" of precip over the next 16 days. Where is the SS at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 The GFS and Euro this winter has fooled us alot with epic outbreaks of cold, but some did verify! Last year they showed alot of super cold in the long range, only to never verify! That alone makes this winter so much better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 CMC has been doing good, see below. I will say this is the first year in a while that I wouldn't mind seeing some flakes in March, usually I am all in for Spring and 70F weather. Hopefully we can get lucky and see an inch or something. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day6_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png Wow, I didn't realize the gap was that big. The Canadian is kicking butt and is barely behind the Euro. 4dvar FTW? And that gives me justification to hug the Canadian's solution at 12z for another couple hours until 00z changes everything. I think you mentioned this in the main thread but the 18z GFS has less than 1" of precip over the next 16 days. Where is the SS at? We need a positive QPF bust and a positive cold bust. Oh, wait, that never happens. It's only the other way around. BTW, both the EPS and the GEFS are pretty cold in the LR, especially post-D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BTW, speaking of the Canadian, it looks like it's getting a major upgrade soon. Maybe it will challenge the Euro? From DT (typos and all): ** IMPORTANT WEATHER MODELS NEWS *** CANADIAN MODEL TO UNDERGO ANOTHER MASSIVE UPGRADE...back in FEB 2013 the CMC Global Model (big scale) and REGIONAL Model) under went a major upgrade and went to 4DVAR. The EURO snd Br Models use 4DVAR... the GFS uses 3DVAR ( WHAT is 3DVAR 4 DVAR? see below)After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade. 1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km)2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG 3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 25, 2014 Share Posted February 25, 2014 BTW, speaking of the Canadian, it looks like it's getting a major upgrade soon. Maybe it will challenge the Euro? From DT (typos and all): That sounds fantastic... So I guess we'll have another king? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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