packfan98 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Euro EPS had a nice overrunning for TN/NC and the SLP is getting closer to the coast, still 150 miles or so off the coast but it does get precip up and down the east coast for coastal areas. Still 6+ days out, looks like central NC is a little to warm. This is all for 3/1 potential. The 3/3 potential is still there. Very active southern stream next 2 weeks, cold is around, well March type cold, would hope one of these hits western NC. Thanks. Looks like each day the models will improve one of the potential storms a bit while the others get worse. They don't know which to amplify because of the fast flow. I'm a little surprised that the Euro is swinging so wildly with the southern stream. It was so locked in on the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 06z DGEX. I'm sure this will happen. The lee side dry slot has moved over to I-85! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 06z DGEX. I'm sure this will happen. The lee side dry slot has moved over to I-85! LOL, DGEX says 3/1 isn't dead yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Blacksburg is amazing at times. How is a forecast like this possible TuesdayA slight chance of snow before 10am, then a slight chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 55. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Tuesday NightA chance of snow before 8pm, then a chance of rain between 8pm and 4am, then a chance of rain and snow showers after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. WednesdayA chance of rain and snow showers before 1pm, then a slight chance of rain showers between 1pm and 5pm, then a slight chance of rain and snow showers after 5pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Robert hasn't posted anything about this pattern lately. The other day he was pretty excited about it. Model watching days are getting very limited it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Robert hasn't posted anything about this pattern lately. The other day he was pretty excited about it. Model watching days are getting very limited it seems.Yeah, seems like everyone got lured in to this super cold outbreak that was showing up a few days ago (widespread teen lows in NC) and such and now highs through next weekend are in the low to mid 50s! Not going to get winter storms like that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yeah, seems like everyone got lured in to this super cold outbreak that was showing up a few days ago (widespread teen lows in NC) and such and now highs through next weekend are in the low to mid 50s! Not going to get winter storms like that! Well it does get cold Thursday-Friday, but we get precip Wed and Saturday. Then it gets cold again Sunday but we get precip on Monday. Also, we are +10F warmer on average than mid-Jan, so below is low in 20F's for end of Feb which would have been in the low teens in mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Now this is the typical Waycross weather where all the rain starts to dry up as it reaches the area. TWC jinxed it by putting heavy thunderstorms in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Yeah, seems like everyone got lured in to this super cold outbreak that was showing up a few days ago (widespread teen lows in NC) and such and now highs through next weekend are in the low to mid 50s! Not going to get winter storms like that! GFS ensemble has 38 high 24 low for RDU on Sunday. There's also a possibility of 5 nights in a row below freezing for lows. 00z Euro is too warm at 2m for this time period, control AND ensemble is below freezing into March for lows. Op Euro still showing 17 degrees in RDU. Like I said in the pattern thread, Euro hasn't figured out the cold yet, and I don't think any model has really. GFS has consitently shown sub freezing temps from 2/1 on and all of a sudden 06z it spits out 40s? It's the GFS. OP Euro isn't even that warm for minimums and like I said, too warm compared to ensembles. Food for thought. Don't let one or two runs of the models get you to cancel the cold. Although it's not going to be a crazy cold outbreak it's not going to be warm...lol at the ridge popping up at on the models though. Texas good get it all. I'm kinda done model watching. edit: I wrote this before really looking at 500mb maps, etc. Most models pop that SE ridge quick, so whatever cold we do get, it's short lived...so this one has about a 0.1% chance of perfect timing + adequate cold (and saturation) + adequate track. On to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 GFS ensemble has 38 high 24 low for RDU on Sunday. There's also a possibility of 5 nights in a row below freezing for lows. 00z Euro is too warm at 2m for this time period, control AND ensemble is below freezing into March for lows. Op Euro still showing 17 degrees in RDU. Like I said in the pattern thread, Euro hasn't figured out the cold yet, and I don't think any model has really. GFS has consitently shown sub freezing temps from 2/1 on and all of a sudden 06z it spits out 40s? It's the GFS. OP Euro isn't even that warm for minimums and like I said, too warm compared to ensembles. Food for thought. Don't let one or two runs of the models get you to cancel the cold. Although it's not going to be a crazy cold outbreak it's not going to be warm...lol at the ridge popping up at on the models though. Texas good get it all. I'm kinda done model watching. edit: I wrote this before really looking at 500mb maps, etc. Most models pop that SE ridge quick, so whatever cold we do get, it's short lived...so this one has about a 0.1% chance of perfect timing + adequate cold (and saturation) + adequate track. On to the next one. Let's just hope it's not like last March, cool and rainy. Although March is usually a wet month, let's hope for atleast seasonal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Bring on winter 2014 - 2014 . hopefully this winter was a sign of things to come next winter.. hopefully the enso goes nino next winter and we get a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NC&stn=KCLT&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec tenth of an inch of snow... book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 12z Euro looks cold enough for N NC for snow on 2/26. but most of the precip misses the area to the south and BL temperatures appear to suck (if there was more precip, that may not be the case, though). The 00z GGEM is easily cold enough for 2/26, but most precip misses N NC to the north. Blend them and profit. For 3/1, the GGEM brings the low down over S FL and out to sea. We've got that one right where we want it at this point. LMAO. (Not really) The surface low passing over Lake Okeechobee is a benchmark track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 You know the pattern sucks for snow when there are more posts in banter about upcoming chances than in the pattern discussion! Boogity, boogity, boogity, let's go racing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 12z Euro looks cold enough for N NC for snow on 2/26. but most of the precip misses the area to the south and BL temperatures appear to suck (if there was more precip, that may not be the case, though). The 00z GGEM is easily cold enough for 2/26, but most precip misses N NC to the north. Blend them and profit. For 3/1, the GGEM brings the low down over S FL and out to sea. We've got that one right where we want it at this point. LMAO. (Not really) The surface low passing over Lake Okeechobee is a benchmark track. 3/1 on the Euro turned in a nice MA to NE coastal snow event. You knew it was a matter of time, suppression was a never a concern, I bet this turns in a bigger event, the NC mountains have a chance with this though. Bring on spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Robert hasn't posted anything about this pattern lately. The other day he was pretty excited about it. Model watching days are getting very limited it seems. He has an excellent writeup this morning, fresh off the presses. You have to be a paid subscriber, but it outlines his thoughts. Generally speaking, there are still lots of question marks with each of the next several systems. We need to wait on the midweek system to get out of the way before the 3/1 system will become clearer. We need the 3/1 system to get out of the way before the following system will become clearer. His specific thoughts on the whole thing are quite enlightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 3 Good call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't understand the science behind always waiting for the first system to get out of the way before the models can understand the second. It isn't like their equations get blinded by a system in front of another system. There's always a system in front of the system you're watching, somewhere. There must be something to it though because you always hear about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Good call! Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Lots of shear on those cells west of Daytona. Would be interesting to see the 500's tornado procedure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I still haven't picked a driver....sigh....I miss seeing Mark Martin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Just a matter of time before Daytona gets a storm... on the door step Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Just a matter of time before Daytona gets a storm... on the door step It's going to be close. That cell is going to fringe Daytona Beach. If the speedway was on the south side of town, it would probably escape unscathed, but alas... Luckily, the main band of storms is to the north for now. This isolated one shouldn't last long if it hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I don't understand the science behind always waiting for the first system to get out of the way before the models can understand the second. It isn't like their equations get blinded by a system in front of another system. There's always a system in front of the system you're watching, somewhere. There must be something to it though because you always hear about it. It doesn't make sense at all! I agree! I think it's a coping mechanism. The one we track for a few days, fizzles or rains or goes poof, then suddenly a storm appears behind it with possibilities, so we blame the first one, and look for the second to produce/ make us feel better!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 What the heck is going on with all these commercials?? This coverage sucks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 It's going to be close. That cell is going to fringe Daytona Beach. If the speedway was on the south side of town, it would probably escape unscathed, but alas... Luckily, the main band of storms is to the north for now. This isolated one shouldn't last long if it hits. Looks like the rain is setting in. It will take at least an hour to dry the track so I really don't like the looks. Short range models seem to keep it coming south some too so it could be a long night for race lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 What the heck is going on with all these commercials?? This coverage sucks! The race sucks until 25 to go, too. Restrictor plate races FTL. It's a glorified single-file parade for the first ~175 laps. And rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Woah nevermind! Those dryers are something else ha that is new! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The race sucks until 25 to go, too. Restrictor plate races FTL. And rain... Yeah, I see they finally started talking about the rain. That cell looks to be building south. There is lightening well south of the main line out west of the track. I wonder if that is a precursor to storms devolving farther south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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