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February Banter II


jburns

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I would be more upbeat if the cold was a lock. One day temps are going to be record cold, next day, just avg temps are being shown. Nobody wants to get doused with cold rain! If it ain't gonna snow, I just want warm and sunny so I can get my bball on! And the thunderstorms we have had over the past week were a nice change

I hear you. If I don't get at least 6 inches of snow with the next system, then I would rather just have spring here, some sunny and nice days, and some severe weather to follow. Either one or the other.

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I think we're gonna be ok with this one. I'm feeling pretty good at the moment. I hope the models feel good soon. :yikes:

 

Went back and looked at all the bigger March events over the past 30 years or so, I included Feb 27th and later since we are looking at Feb28/March1 for this upcoming potential.  Over the past 30 years there has been about 10 of them, I just pulled ones that had bigger impact outside of the mountains, there was several more that hit just the mountains.  The number in ( ) is the AO value and I also noted which occurred during a -EPO regardless of how strong the -EPO was.  10 events in the past 30 years isn't to bad and 9 of the 10 were fairly big (6"+) for places outside of the mountains.  This upcoming potential will have a solid -AO and -EPO, unless things drastically change.  The PNA will also be going positive and several below had +PNA.  

 

March 2-3 2010   (-2)
March 1-2 2009   (+2) (-EPO)
March 16-17 2005 (-1.3) (-EPO)
Feb 27-28 (2005)  (-4) 
Feb 26-27 2004    (-3.1)
March 12-14 1993  (+1.4) (-EPO)
Feb 27, 1987  (-1.2) (-EPO)
March 24-25, 1983 (-1.6) (-EPO)
March 22-23, 1981 (-2.8) (-EPO)
March 1-2, 1980   (-0.7) (-EPO)
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Went back and looked at all the bigger March events over the past 30 years or so, I included Feb 27th and later since we are looking at Feb28/March1 for this upcoming potential. Over the past 30 years there has been about 10 of them, I just pulled ones that had bigger impact outside of the mountains, there was several more that hit just the mountains. The number in ( ) is the AO value and I also noted which occurred during a -EPO regardless of how strong the -EPO was. 10 events in the past 30 years isn't to bad and 9 of the 10 were fairly big (6"+) for places outside of the mountains. This upcoming potential will have a solid -AO and -EPO, unless things drastically change. The PNA will also be going positive and several below had +PNA.

March 2-3 2010 (-2)

March 1-2 2009 (+2) (-EPO)

March 16-17 2005 (-1.3) (-EPO)

Feb 27-28 (2005) (-4)

Feb 26-27 2004 (-3.1)

March 12-14 1993 (+1.4) (-EPO)

Feb 27, 1987 (-1.2) (-EPO)

March 24-25, 1983 (-1.6) (-EPO)

March 22-23, 1981 (-2.8) (-EPO)

March 1-2, 1980 (-0.7) (-EPO)

Nice work! Some decent events on that list. We don't have a stable -NAO, which would help. But a -AO/-EPO combo will help for sure. I think we'll cash in one more time before March 15...maybe more.

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I agree, all the models are showing a weak low tracking to our south with marginal cold as of now. Hopefully this one becomes more definitive by Monday, want a quick exit or all in. This definitely doesn't look like a big dog potential, more of a 2-4" type event at best.

Been thinking the same kind of thing, but the counter to that is New Bern which got 10 inches of snow from a dinky little nothing wave on Feb 11

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Regarding March, there was a huge snowstorm on March 1 in 1927 across North Carolina.  In terms of heavy snow across a large portion of the state, it's the biggest of them all from what I've seen (since late 1800's).  30 inches in Nashviile, NC.  This article says 30-40 inches in Wilson - http://blogs.newsobserver.com/pasttimes/the-record-snow-of-1927

 

This map has a large portion of the state with over 18 inches

 

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Did the ACC refs screw up a call at the end of a close game in favor of Duke? What a shock.

 

Oh, give it a rest, Brick!  You didn't hear me complain about refs after Duke lost to UNC.  In fact, I commended your team and suggested that other Duke fans shouldn't stoop to the level of blaming refs for losses.  But, you just served to remind me why it's quite difficult to have any kind of rational discussion with the typical UNC fan.  Refs make good calls, and they make bad calls.  It happens in every game to every team.  You deal with it and move on.

 

Anyway, it was an impressive win for the boys in Duke blue tonight.  Marshall Plumlee is growing up.  What a game he had tonight, especially in the first half!  The sting of the loss at Chapel Hill is slightly abated with the win over the current #1 team in the nation.  I imagine Syracuse will fall to #3 or #4 with this second loss this week.  Duke will most likely stay at #5, or perhaps fall to #6, after their performance this week.

 

We get ever closer to March Madness.  Perhaps we can add some weather madness to the equation as well...

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Regarding March, there was a huge snowstorm on March 1 in 1927 across North Carolina. In terms of heavy snow across a large portion of the state, it's the biggest of them all from what I've seen (since late 1800's). 30 inches in Nashviile, NC. This article says 30-40 inches in Wilson - http://blogs.newsobserver.com/pasttimes/the-record-snow-of-1927

This map has a large portion of the state with over 18 inches

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Cool article, hard to imagine that even happened here, it's like it happened on another planet. Hopefully we, or even our kids can experience something like that again.
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Any 00z GFS action?

 

The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle.  A dumpster fire, basically.  I'm going to toss it because I don't like it.  :violin:

 

The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though.  Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate.

 

The GGEM shows a storm on 2/28, but it's a hair too warm/suppressed.  It does have a Big Dog a couple days later, though, as Pack notes.  I'm all-in.  :weenie:

 

The entire GFS op run is basically a disaster and the pattern largely goes to hell.  Thankfully, it's a ****ty model, especially post-truncation.

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The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle.  A dumpster fire, basically.  I'm going to toss it because I don't like it.  :violin:

 

The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though.  Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate.

CMC blows for 3/1 too. Warm and suppressed. Lots of hot air around for this event, this cold period coming up is really going down in flames.

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The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle.  A dumpster fire, basically.  I'm going to toss it because I don't like it.  :violin:

 

The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though.  Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate.

 

The GGEM shows a storm on 2/28, but it's a hair too warm/suppressed.  It does have a Big Dog a couple days later, though, as Pack notes.  I'm all-in.  :weenie:

I am all in for the 3/3-4 event, LOL

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CMC blows for 3/1 too. Warm and suppressed. Lots of hot air around for this event, this cold period coming up is really going down in flames.

 

I've had a lot of dry, powdery snow, so it's time for a good 'ole fashioned 34-degree paste-job with inconsistent rates that struggles to accumulate on even the elevated surfaces under the March supersun.  :yikes:

 

In all seriousness, we NEED more snow.  God forbid New Bern beat everyone outside the mountains and northern foothills in snowfall on the year.  :axe:

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Man, this cold snap of epic proportions, is looking like a mirage! What a kick in the pants? If the Euro goes warmer here in a bit , I've got my fork out, because this winter is toast! We will probably get 20 degree departures below normal at the end of March when are avg high should be pushing 60-65!

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HPC snippet....

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST WILL BE

APPRECIABLY WETTER AS UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY MIGRATES

ACROSS THE REGION. BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL

MOISTURE TRANSPORT (ESPECIALLY DAY 3...AND DAYS 5-6) AND INVOF OF

THE PRE-EXISTING 'MODIFIED-ARCTIC' FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...IT LOOKS

LIKE PERIODS OF WINTRY P-TYPE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST

TEXAS TO THE BLUE RIDGE

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Hey packbacker, how were the eps mean and ensembles?

Euro EPS had a nice overrunning for TN/NC and the SLP is getting closer to the coast, still 150 miles or so off the coast but it does get precip up and down the east coast for coastal areas. Still 6+ days out, looks like central NC is a little to warm. This is all for 3/1 potential. The 3/3 potential is still there. Very active southern stream next 2 weeks, cold is around, well March type cold, would hope one of these hits western NC.

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