JoshM Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I would have kicked the basketball into the stands before I left. Indeed... I'm not a Duke fan, but that was bullshi*, they should have let him vent and reviewed the play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I would be more upbeat if the cold was a lock. One day temps are going to be record cold, next day, just avg temps are being shown. Nobody wants to get doused with cold rain! If it ain't gonna snow, I just want warm and sunny so I can get my bball on! And the thunderstorms we have had over the past week were a nice change I hear you. If I don't get at least 6 inches of snow with the next system, then I would rather just have spring here, some sunny and nice days, and some severe weather to follow. Either one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Indeed... I'm not a Duke fan, but that was bullshi*, they should have let him vent and reviewed the play. Did the ACC refs screw up a call at the end of a close game in favor of Duke? What a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I think we're gonna be ok with this one. I'm feeling pretty good at the moment. I hope the models feel good soon. Went back and looked at all the bigger March events over the past 30 years or so, I included Feb 27th and later since we are looking at Feb28/March1 for this upcoming potential. Over the past 30 years there has been about 10 of them, I just pulled ones that had bigger impact outside of the mountains, there was several more that hit just the mountains. The number in ( ) is the AO value and I also noted which occurred during a -EPO regardless of how strong the -EPO was. 10 events in the past 30 years isn't to bad and 9 of the 10 were fairly big (6"+) for places outside of the mountains. This upcoming potential will have a solid -AO and -EPO, unless things drastically change. The PNA will also be going positive and several below had +PNA. March 2-3 2010 (-2) March 1-2 2009 (+2) (-EPO) March 16-17 2005 (-1.3) (-EPO) Feb 27-28 (2005) (-4) Feb 26-27 2004 (-3.1) March 12-14 1993 (+1.4) (-EPO) Feb 27, 1987 (-1.2) (-EPO) March 24-25, 1983 (-1.6) (-EPO) March 22-23, 1981 (-2.8) (-EPO) March 1-2, 1980 (-0.7) (-EPO) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Last March was brutally cold and most of us saw snow showers in the March 2-4 period. The blocking did help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 23, 2014 Author Share Posted February 23, 2014 I just made my 2000 th post!! 3/4 were obs and good natured ribbing of metal! 1000 were probably over the last month, I need a job! I did 40+ years of jobs. Honestly, they're not all that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Went back and looked at all the bigger March events over the past 30 years or so, I included Feb 27th and later since we are looking at Feb28/March1 for this upcoming potential. Over the past 30 years there has been about 10 of them, I just pulled ones that had bigger impact outside of the mountains, there was several more that hit just the mountains. The number in ( ) is the AO value and I also noted which occurred during a -EPO regardless of how strong the -EPO was. 10 events in the past 30 years isn't to bad and 9 of the 10 were fairly big (6"+) for places outside of the mountains. This upcoming potential will have a solid -AO and -EPO, unless things drastically change. The PNA will also be going positive and several below had +PNA. March 2-3 2010 (-2) March 1-2 2009 (+2) (-EPO) March 16-17 2005 (-1.3) (-EPO) Feb 27-28 (2005) (-4) Feb 26-27 2004 (-3.1) March 12-14 1993 (+1.4) (-EPO) Feb 27, 1987 (-1.2) (-EPO) March 24-25, 1983 (-1.6) (-EPO) March 22-23, 1981 (-2.8) (-EPO) March 1-2, 1980 (-0.7) (-EPO) Nice work! Some decent events on that list. We don't have a stable -NAO, which would help. But a -AO/-EPO combo will help for sure. I think we'll cash in one more time before March 15...maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I agree, all the models are showing a weak low tracking to our south with marginal cold as of now. Hopefully this one becomes more definitive by Monday, want a quick exit or all in. This definitely doesn't look like a big dog potential, more of a 2-4" type event at best. Been thinking the same kind of thing, but the counter to that is New Bern which got 10 inches of snow from a dinky little nothing wave on Feb 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I did 40+ years of jobs. Honestly, they're not all that great.True! But I haven't even been alive 40 years! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Regarding March, there was a huge snowstorm on March 1 in 1927 across North Carolina. In terms of heavy snow across a large portion of the state, it's the biggest of them all from what I've seen (since late 1800's). 30 inches in Nashviile, NC. This article says 30-40 inches in Wilson - http://blogs.newsobserver.com/pasttimes/the-record-snow-of-1927 This map has a large portion of the state with over 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Did the ACC refs screw up a call at the end of a close game in favor of Duke? What a shock. Oh, give it a rest, Brick! You didn't hear me complain about refs after Duke lost to UNC. In fact, I commended your team and suggested that other Duke fans shouldn't stoop to the level of blaming refs for losses. But, you just served to remind me why it's quite difficult to have any kind of rational discussion with the typical UNC fan. Refs make good calls, and they make bad calls. It happens in every game to every team. You deal with it and move on. Anyway, it was an impressive win for the boys in Duke blue tonight. Marshall Plumlee is growing up. What a game he had tonight, especially in the first half! The sting of the loss at Chapel Hill is slightly abated with the win over the current #1 team in the nation. I imagine Syracuse will fall to #3 or #4 with this second loss this week. Duke will most likely stay at #5, or perhaps fall to #6, after their performance this week. We get ever closer to March Madness. Perhaps we can add some weather madness to the equation as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Regarding March, there was a huge snowstorm on March 1 in 1927 across North Carolina. In terms of heavy snow across a large portion of the state, it's the biggest of them all from what I've seen (since late 1800's). 30 inches in Nashviile, NC. This article says 30-40 inches in Wilson - http://blogs.newsobserver.com/pasttimes/the-record-snow-of-1927 This map has a large portion of the state with over 18 inches /fb0.gif][/url] Cool article, hard to imagine that even happened here, it's like it happened on another planet. Hopefully we, or even our kids can experience something like that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Any 00z GFS action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 CMC has a nice day 8-9 event, déjà vu....this would be the March 3/4 potential. Big snow for N-GA, SC, NC and VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Any 00z GFS action? The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle. A dumpster fire, basically. I'm going to toss it because I don't like it. The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though. Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate. The GGEM shows a storm on 2/28, but it's a hair too warm/suppressed. It does have a Big Dog a couple days later, though, as Pack notes. I'm all-in. The entire GFS op run is basically a disaster and the pattern largely goes to hell. Thankfully, it's a ****ty model, especially post-truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle. A dumpster fire, basically. I'm going to toss it because I don't like it. The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though. Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate. CMC blows for 3/1 too. Warm and suppressed. Lots of hot air around for this event, this cold period coming up is really going down in flames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The 2/28 storm is freezing drizzle to drizzle. A dumpster fire, basically. I'm going to toss it because I don't like it. The GFS was almost a bit interesting with the mid-week threat, though. Maybe some light snow and/or flurries if BL temperatures cooperate. The GGEM shows a storm on 2/28, but it's a hair too warm/suppressed. It does have a Big Dog a couple days later, though, as Pack notes. I'm all-in. I am all in for the 3/3-4 event, LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 CMC blows for 3/1 too. Warm and suppressed. Lots of hot air around for this event, this cold period coming up is really going down in flames. I've had a lot of dry, powdery snow, so it's time for a good 'ole fashioned 34-degree paste-job with inconsistent rates that struggles to accumulate on even the elevated surfaces under the March supersun. In all seriousness, we NEED more snow. God forbid New Bern beat everyone outside the mountains and northern foothills in snowfall on the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Man, this cold snap of epic proportions, is looking like a mirage! What a kick in the pants? If the Euro goes warmer here in a bit , I've got my fork out, because this winter is toast! We will probably get 20 degree departures below normal at the end of March when are avg high should be pushing 60-65! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 For some comedy relief, check out the comedy channel, old school Katt Williams, not for the easily offended( language) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I am all in for the 3/3-4 event, LOL The Euro agrees. Time to swing for the fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I just fouled one off my shin! Just keep the threats moving back 2 or 3 days at a time, and soon April will be here to put us out of our misery! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 I just fouled one off my shin! Just keep the threats moving back 2 or 3 days at a time, and soon April will be here to put us out of our misery! Nonsense. We chase into April with full confidence in success. April is when we get some of our biggest storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Nonsense. We chase into April with full confidence in success. April is when we get some of our biggest storms... That must have been a weird storm in 1915. Charlotte recorded less than an inch of snow. Anyone have a snowfall map for that one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 The Euro agrees. Time to swing for the fences. Well with 3/1 it's cold chasing moisture and with 3/3 it's moisture chasing cold. :-) Those usually work out for us LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Well with 3/1 it's cold chasing moisture and with 3/3 it's moisture chasing cold. :-) Those usually work out for us LOL Good Morning Packbacker! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 HPC snippet.... THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD FOR THE SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST WILL BE APPRECIABLY WETTER AS UNDERCUTTING PACIFIC WAVE ENERGY MIGRATES ACROSS THE REGION. BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT (ESPECIALLY DAY 3...AND DAYS 5-6) AND INVOF OF THE PRE-EXISTING 'MODIFIED-ARCTIC' FRONTAL BOUNDARIES...IT LOOKS LIKE PERIODS OF WINTRY P-TYPE ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR FROM WEST TEXAS TO THE BLUE RIDGE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Good Morning Packbacker! Morning! Feel bad for SuperJames only one up for the Euro last night and it was a pretty good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Hey packbacker, how were the eps mean and ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2014 Share Posted February 23, 2014 Hey packbacker, how were the eps mean and ensembles? Euro EPS had a nice overrunning for TN/NC and the SLP is getting closer to the coast, still 150 miles or so off the coast but it does get precip up and down the east coast for coastal areas. Still 6+ days out, looks like central NC is a little to warm. This is all for 3/1 potential. The 3/3 potential is still there. Very active southern stream next 2 weeks, cold is around, well March type cold, would hope one of these hits western NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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