February Banter II

[rduwx]

Whats funny is I see it the exact opposite, we hardly ever gave anyone a hard time for real, or at least to the extent it is now. I guess we were a lot smaller back then and the SE folks had to stick together on the board since there was no sub forums. Now it seems everyone cant wait to take a cheap shot at someone or be the board cop. Its much worse now than it use to be IMO......we can chalk it up to growing pains I guess.

 

I agree, it was never a SE poster given another SE poster a hard time. What I was referring to was the entire board. Back then you better have some scientific reasoning to back your post up or you would hear about it and it wasn't sugar coated. With no sub forums, you were hearing it from MA and NE posters.

[rduwx]

I don't dislike anyone on here.

 

I agree with this.  One big happy SE family!

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Whats funny is I see it the exact opposite, we hardly ever gave anyone a hard time for real, or at least to the extent it is now. I guess we were a lot smaller back then and the SE folks had to stick together on the board since there was no sub forums. Now it seems everyone cant wait to take a cheap shot at someone or be the board cop. Its much worse now than it use to be IMO......we can chalk it up to growing pains I guess.

 

Agreed....we stuck together more in the old days. I remember the old pink weenie tags that would get issued to folks and trust me, you did not want to get one of those. That's why most of our posts were more informative and Storm Mode meant more back then. You could get a time-out for just for IMBY post. That's how the famous "How much for Philly?" quote came about. The board has really changed. As for bullying, it's all in good fun and Brick is a good sport. If you want to see bullying, just try to troll the Mid-Atlantic or North East sub-forums when you don't have anything else to do. It will get bloody fast.

[pcbjr]

This is 1000% not appropriate for the pattern thread, and it is definitely not an IMBY question.

 

Rather - the GFS Op has been a bit inconsistent and I'm wondering if it is modeling or pattern evolution.

 

Specifically, the GFS runs 2 days ago and early yesterday has 2m temps consistently in the mid-20's way down here around the 27th/28th, with several low 30's after that. Then suddenly, late yesterday and throughout today each run has been progressively warmer. Much warmer, in fact. The 18Z now shows nothing even out to fantasy land below 50º here.

 

I know this is north Florida, but that is seemingly a very big differential in modeling over 36 hours.

 

So - is the GFS (and to a lesser extent the Euro) having trouble figuring the upcoming pattern out, or is the cold/cool really/probably staying north of these parts, this time around?

 

Any observations or thoughts (beyond the "You're in Fla, what do you expect" variety) are very much appreciated.

[CherokeeGA]

I swear I am already experiencing spring allergies (itchy eyes)...anyone experiencing this?  Just looked at a pollen map, and levels are medium-high across a lot of the southeast.

 

Yes.  We have had a pretty wet fall and winter, and the last week and a half has been quite warm, warm enough to get the mold and pollen going.  My sinuses are already killing me.

 

I can recommend Zatidor eye drops very, very highly.  I use it every spring to calm my eyes down.  It stops the redness and itching and (at least for me) the nighttime build-up crud during allergy season.  It used to be prescription, but a few years ago went OTC.  I know that Target also sells a generic / store brand version, and the drugstores might also.  Zatidor + Zyrtec is how I survive the spring.

[Jon]

This is 1000% not appropriate for the pattern thread, and it is definitely not an IMBY question.

 

Rather - the GFS Op has been a bit inconsistent and I'm wondering if it is modeling or pattern evolution.

 

Specifically, the GFS runs 2 days ago and early yesterday has 2m temps consistently in the mid-20's way down here around the 27th/28th, with several low 30's after that. Then suddenly, late yesterday and throughout today each run has been progressively warmer. Much warmer, in fact. The 18Z now shows nothing even out to fantasy land below 50º here.

 

I know this is north Florida, but that is seemingly a very big differential in modeling over 36 hours.

 

So - is the GFS (and to a lesser extent the Euro) having trouble figuring the upcoming pattern out, or is the cold/cool really/probably staying north of these parts, this time around?

 

Any observations or thoughts (beyond the "You're in Fla, what do you expect" variety) are very much appreciated.

Phil,

 

I see what was giving the GFS, particularly the 18z run putting out low temps in g-ville was it was trying to figure out the placement of the trough and was elongating some negative heights over that particular area of FL causing the lower 2m minimums. The runs yesterday had the PV located east of Hudson bay while the runs today have it located just south.

 

Yesterday's 18z

 

Today's 18z

 

The PV seems to be more compressed and "weaker", for a lack of better words and probably in regards to some kind of upper flow (that I can't speak on) that's not allowing it to dig much deeper in order to get to FL. Possibly, it's the western ridge that colapses too quickly not allowing the PV to set up more east, and the 2m minimums on the east coast in general are higher.

 

yesterdays 18z run 2m temps

 

today's 18z run

 

As you can see, much of the cold on the newer 18z is bottled up in Central to Western Canada. That's your culprit, along with the collapsing of the ridge

 

The 12z Euro puts 39 degrees in gainesville, but the mean is much higher at 50+, so we would assume the OP is wrong here. This is still a ways out and by no means a deal breaker on 39 or lower getting to Gainsville. What you would want to hope for is the ridge out west holding, and the PV setting up more east before it heads NE and out of play.

 

By the way, the PV on the 18z GFS operational is too far west, GFS ensemble mean is east, ridge looks better out west, too. So that's what we'd call a model problem, don't worry too much. See below.

 

[Brick Tamland]

So we might have a storm next week after all.

[SD1]

We need that vortex to be positioned just far enough to the North to allow a storm to throw moisture into the cold air. The other week the vortex was too dominating and we only managed to get an inch and a half near RDU. Last week was great to start with but  trended warm at the end. 

[pcbjr]

Phil,

 

I see what was giving the GFS, particularly the 18z run putting out low temps in g-ville was it was trying to figure out the placement of the trough and was elongating some negative heights over that particular area of FL causing the lower 2m minimums. The runs yesterday had the PV located east of Hudson bay while the runs today have it located just south.

 

Yesterday's 18z

 

Today's 18z

 

The PV seems to be more compressed and "weaker", for a lack of better words and probably in regards to some kind of upper flow (that I can't speak on) that's not allowing it to dig much deeper in order to get to FL. Possibly, it's the western ridge that colapses too quickly not allowing the PV to set up more east, and the 2m minimums on the east coast in general are higher.

 

yesterdays 18z run 2m temps

 

today's 18z run

 

As you can see, much of the cold on the newer 18z is bottled up in Central to Western Canada. That's your culprit, along with the collapsing of the ridge

 

The 12z Euro puts 39 degrees in gainesville, but the mean is much higher at 50+, so we would assume the OP is wrong here. This is still a ways out and by no means a deal breaker on 39 or lower getting to Gainsville. What you would want to hope for is the ridge out west holding, and the PV setting up more east before it heads NE and out of play.

 

By the way, the PV on the 18z GFS operational is too far west, GFS ensemble mean is east, ridge looks better out west, too. So that's what we'd call a model problem, don't worry too much. See below.

 

Jon,

 

I don't know how to delete your maps and explanation from the reply (just to save space here mind you, as both are worth repeating!) -

 

Thanks, as always, for your insights and for taking the time away from pharm studies to share the knowledge.

 

Good explanation and thanks!

 

Best,

 

Phil

[LithiaWx]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

312 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

...DANGEROUS WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION THURSDAY AND

THURSDAY NIGHT...

.A WINTER STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS TO THE

AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT MAKING FOR DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS

SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH

CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN

SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LESS DUE TO A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING

RAIN...AND SLEET.

THE MOST DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WILL BE LATE THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WHEN WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE

25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE BLIZZARD

CONDITIONS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND OCCASIONAL WHITE

OUTS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN. MAJOR DRIFTING WILL LIKELY MAKE

ROADS IMPASSABLE IN THE OPEN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND

WESTERN WISCONSIN. VISIBILITIES WILL BE NEAR ZERO BY THURSDAY

EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.

PRECEDING THE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON

AND NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON

THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG AND

SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.

IAZ008>010-018-019-029-MNZ086-087-094-095-200515-

/O.CON.KARX.BZ.W.0002.140220T1500Z-140221T1200Z/

/O.CON.KARX.WW.Y.0014.140220T0900Z-140220T1500Z/

MITCHELL-HOWARD-WINNESHIEK-FLOYD-CHICKASAW-FAYETTE-DODGE-OLMSTED-

MOWER-FILLMORE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DECORAH...CHARLES CITY...OELWEIN...

ROCHESTER...AUSTIN

312 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM

CST THURSDAY...

...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM

CST FRIDAY...

* A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA ON

THURSDAY MORNING...AND THEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

* THE HEAVIEST SNOW WOULD FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH 1 TO 2

INCH PER HOUR RATES.

* 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED.

* BLIZZARD AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON

AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...GUSTING TO 50

MPH...WILL CREATE MAJOR BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME IMPASSABLE FROM THE DRIFTING

SNOW. DANGEROUS TO IMPOSSIBLE TRAVEL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY

AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE

EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS

AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITEOUT

CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. DO NOT TRAVEL. IF

YOU MUST TRAVEL...HAVE A WINTER SURVIVAL KIT WITH YOU. IF YOU GET

STRANDED...STAY WITH YOUR VEHICLE. THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS FOR

THE STATE YOU ARE CALLING FROM CAN BE OBTAINED BY CALLING 5 1 1.

&&

$$

Just once I'd love to get this type of forecast. Perhaps in 1993 those conditions were pretty similar here.

[metalicwx366]

There is a thread for that discussion. Enter at your own risk and be well armed with your points.

Hey kvegas.

[kvegas-wx]

Hey kvegas.

Wassup Metalhead. Layoff the Waycross Whiskey. It can enhance already odd behavior.

[GaWx]

 Well, onto the King. I wish there were no Daylight Saving Time. Staying up for Doc will be rough starting in a few weeks. Fortunately, by then winter is about over.

[jacobr57]

 Well, onto the King. I wish there were no Daylight Saving Time. Staying up for Doc will be rough starting in a few weeks. Fortunately, by then winter is about over.

 

Anything of interest on the 0z GFS?

[GaWx]

Anything of interest on the 0z GFS?

 

 Fairly zzzzzz verbatim. Otherwise, the pattern still holds promise for opportunities. Maybe the King will save us verbatim so we can sleep well tonight. He can't get here soon enough.  Regardless, it has been a very fun and fabulous winter for me.

[jacobr57]

 Fairly zzzzzz verbatim. Otherwise, the pattern still holds promise for opportunities. Maybe the King will save us verbatim so we can sleep well tonight. He can't get here soon enough.  Regardless, it has been a very fun and fabulous winter for me.

 

Thanks! I really appreciate your updates!

[WeatherNC]

I apparently had a post deleted today because I voiced my opinion about global warming bunk. What gives? Surely we can leave politics out of weather.

Take it to climate change, this will not be tolerated in banter. Thank you

[mackerel_sky]

Is the cold for next week still coming? Local outlets and a few other sites have low 50s atleast through next Thursday?

[Brick Tamland]

The Euro does sound interesting for late next week and into March. We have to get through the severe storm threat for tomorrow first.

[Lookout]

I don't really see the harm, but I guess I just won't start any threads. Even though I did start the one about the severe outbreak last January in NC and that turned out to be a pretty big deal.

No one said you can't start threads brick but starting a thread for a "storm" that far out and that you know full well is most likely just fantasy is silly.

 

 

Maybe I'm missing something or maybe I don't understand how this forum works, but I think it's ridiculous for it to be ok for someone more "qualified" to be permitted to start a storm thread but not ok for someone that is just your average Joe that happens to enjoy weather talk/learning about the weather. Some of you are sitting way too far up on your high horse. Our local TV meteorologists started talking about the particular "possible storm" days ago. I would have started a thread too, but I didn't want to be bullied. Which Btw... Yes... Some of you are bullies. I hope those of you that constantly bully him don't have kids of your own that follow in your footsteps. You all are going to feel really stupid if a big storm does come and I hope to see apologies to Brick. I had considered donating to this site, but I can't donate to a site that supports this behavior. I appreciate the meteorologists and others on this board that have helped me learn a bit about the weather and make it fun to watch the models and potential storms without being mean. Now if there is a way to block certain individuals, I would really like to know how so I don't constantly get upset seeing the way some of you talk to others/each other.

 

You are so off based it's hardly worth responding to but what you are saying is just 100% wrong. I don't care who starts the threads. I have absolutely ZERO concern and interest on who does...nor do any of the rest of us. What I do concern myself with is subject matter. I don't care who starts a thread about a weakly hinted at storm a week or more out, it's silly..not only because of the time range involved but because we already have an entire thread devoted for talking about any potential threats that far out. If we are going to make threads on every fantasy storm that pops up on the 240 hour euro or the 300 hour gfs, the quality of discussion will go into the toilet.

 

Fact of business, we have NEVER had threads devoted to fantasy storms so far out. Not here, not on eastern, and not on wwbb (for those who were around back then). It's unreal to me you or anyone thinks people are "bullied" because of this very simple and very old policy. Crying victim when there is none or coming up with some conspiracy theory just makes you look stupid  because anyone who knows any of us and have been around for any length of time knows that is just make believe BS.

[Lookout]

Brick can go overboard at times but the board wouldn't be the same without him and I dig his posts.

 

I've always liked brick...in fact I have never understood why people get frustrated so much with him. But this has absolutely nothing to do with him or any individual poster...and making it out to be is pure fantasy and totally wrong.

Since I can't respond to Lookout's post in the other thread, I thought I should here.  For context, here is my first post, with the portion that was bolded by Lookout:

 

 

Here is Lookout's response:

 

 

I agree that the thread was incredibly premature (see my earlier posts in that thread), but I still stand by the belief that no one is harmed by it.  I was also specifically referencing spreading rumors on Facebook, not here, which is what kvegas-wx was relating from his daughter's high school.

 

So, to be clear, I agree with you that this thread on our board is unnecessary and "weenieish" (sp?).  But, I don't see major harm occurring by people discussing snow on Facebook.

 

As Jon posted earlier, I'm not sure why there's a fetish about starting threads.  I have yet to start an event thread either.

I've already explained it. I've been around weather boards for a very long time. I know what makes them better or worse and what works and what doesn't. So does the rest of the crew, as well as the long time members. Having a thread for every fantasy storm a week out is not something that does. But again there is nothing stopping you, or anyone else from discussing it in the pattern discussion thread.

[griteater]

Do you happen to have mold allergies? I have a pretty severe mold allergy and with all of the rain we've had, the mold spores are pretty bad. I've been living off Benedryl since my insurance no longer pays for the allergy injections that I was taking.

I've been tested, and I'm allergic to most of the allergens, though it's not severe.  I have mild symptoms all year long, but the worst time is with the spring pollen Mar-May...I was just surprised that it had already started up here in mid-Feb.

 

Yes.  We have had a pretty wet fall and winter, and the last week and a half has been quite warm, warm enough to get the mold and pollen going.  My sinuses are already killing me.

 

I can recommend Zatidor eye drops very, very highly.  I use it every spring to calm my eyes down.  It stops the redness and itching and (at least for me) the nighttime build-up crud during allergy season.  It used to be prescription, but a few years ago went OTC.  I know that Target also sells a generic / store brand version, and the drugstores might also.  Zatidor + Zyrtec is how I survive the spring.

Thanks for the recommendation.  I will have to try those eye drops.  Itchy eyes is the symptom that gives me the most trouble...that's when I know the allergies are really kicking in.  Benadryl will knock it out, but I only like to go that route if necessary.  For me, 1/2 of a benadryl pill will take care of it...and that's better than taking a full pill (drowsiness).

[WeatherExperiment]

FWIW, someone did egg Brick on to start a thread for that "threat."

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42873-february-banter-ii/?p=2810816

 

Maybe it was sarcasm, but, hey...just sayin'.

[calculus1]

I've already explained it. I've been around weather boards for a very long time. I know what makes them better or worse and what works and what doesn't. So does the rest of the crew, as well as the long time members. Having a thread for every fantasy storm a week out is not something that does. But again there is nothing stopping you, or anyone else from discussing it in the pattern discussion thread.

 

Lookout, I think we're talking about totally different things.  I fully agree with you regarding threads on AmericanWx.  Totally.  No issue.  We're in the same camp.

 

On the other hand, for those that have Facebook accounts (I don't), I see no issue with private individuals talking about whatever the heck they want to discuss on their own private page.

[Lookout]

Lookout, I think we're talking about totally different things.  I fully agree with you regarding threads on AmericanWx.  Totally.  No issue.  We're in the same camp.

 

On the other hand, for those that have Facebook accounts (I don't), I see no issue with private individuals talking about whatever the heck they want to discuss on their own private page.

Well yeah, I couldn't care less what people do on facebook lol

[Brick Tamland]

It looks like my storm thread might have been off by a couple of days.

[WeatherExperiment]

It looks like my storm thread might have been off by a couple of days.

Time will tell. But I still see a couple people in the Pattern Thread keeping the time period of your thread in the picture.

[Hvward]

Its not that it isn't going to happen.. Its the fact that a thread was start for a time period with little overall support from the models. We can't make thread for everyday the models show a snow 7-10 days away. No one would have any idea what to read and good thoughts by great mets would get lost in all the clutter.

[Jon]

It looks like my storm thread might have been off by a couple of days.

Then it's still wrong. This pattern late month is conducive of a storm, that was never the debate. Not sure if you noticed, it's a separate system.

[packfan98]

All aboard the EURO Train!  If we can get some more model and ensemble agreement over the weekend, next week could be fun.  I have a feeling that the cold high in the plains has to be too strong on the models.  We will see if we can get some of that cold air funneled into the SE before the storm comes through.