DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 20z HRRR : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Good read Ray, thanks for posting:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Full-blown thunderstorm just rolled through here, one close lightning strike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony "Rainshadow"'s AFD is a must-read: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...UNNECESSARY TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED TONIGHT BECAUSE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE SECOND AND FINAL PHASE OF THIS WINTER STORM.THE COASTAL LOW ITSELF AT 3 PM WAS VERY NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY BUOY. PROPS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT PEGGED THE TRACK THE BEST THROUGHOUT. WHILE WE ARE HANDING OUT PROPS, THE WRF-NMMB FGEN FIELDS DID AN EXCELLENT JOB OF PREDICTING THIS FRONT END BURST YESTERDAY, THEIR QPF THRU 12Z WAS MUCH CLOSER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.THE SECOND PHASE OF THE WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTION BUBBLING IN VIRGINIA. THE CORE OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR (700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES) IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF OUR COAST UNDER THE CLOSED LOW AND WE FOLLOWED THIS FEATURE TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER.ELSEWHERE THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE CLOSED LOW IS GOING TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE THE NECESSARY EXHAUST FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THIS EVENING. MODEL TIMING HAS COME CLOSER AS THE ECMWF IS NOW FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE HEAVIEST HIT AXIS FROM THIS SNOW (GENERALLY AFTER 7PM AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES) WITH THE ECMWF FURTHEST EAST. WE TOOK A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS WITH THE QPF. THERMALLY, SOMEHOW WE HAVE MANAGED WITH EVEN ALL THIS SNOW TO BE WARMER THAT ALL MODEL 2M FCST TEMPS AS THE FREEZING MARK IS FAR NORTHWEST AS ABE AND RDG. THE FCST SOUNDINGS ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING THE COLDER/LOWER 925MB TEMPS BYPASSING THE 850MB TEMPS HEADING TOWARD THE COAST. WE ARE EXPECTING SLEET TO INCREASE AS A PTYPE THIS EVENING AND THEN AS THE SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY INCREASE PTYPE CHANGES BACK TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS. THE SWEET SPOT FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS (LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES, COLDER THERMAL FIELDS PLUS HEAVIER PCPN) SHOULD BE FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS NEWD INTO THE PASSAIC BASIN OF NJ. PLACES TO THE WEST MAY BE TOO REMOVED AND PLACES FARTHER TO THE EAST, NON SNOW PTYPES WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ACCUMS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED THUMPING SNOWFALL RATES (1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR), WE DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF OUR WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. WITH THE BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS, WE ARE EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO GO INTO THE BOOKS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. Solid AFD! 32.5 in NW Chesco, BP 29.34 still falling, wind NE 8 G 18, noticeable buildup of ice on tree limbs. Freezing drizzle continues, a little heavier than earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 OMG....give me half that qpf and 75% of snow and I'd be doing backflips 20z HRRR : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'd probably adjust HRRR 25 miles NW, usual bias, plus look at the radar and overall motion of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 It just cuts off before hitting me. That sucks. CNN Headline RARE THUNDERSLEET HITTING VIRGINIA Sleet is breaking news! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 the areas with the highest precip also look like areas that won't start as snow...it will be interesting to see how much qpf is wasted until the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Glenns call...probably thinking more rain/sleet to start to cut down accumulations: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Look like RAP has adjusted west (where it should) because of precip type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'd probably adjust HRRR 25 miles NW, usual bias, plus look at the radar and overall motion of the storm What bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rib, the HRRR always seems to be too far SE with things....just observation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Look like RAP has adjusted west (where it should) because of precip type issues. it does ,but it still jackpots PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm anxious to see how heavy the precip is tonight and how much is sleet vs. snow. Looks to be interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 CNN is in Abington from the ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have an RGEM snow total from 18z? Its myfavorite short term model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think the hi res short term models are struggling with the convection. They are jumping all over the place similar to Summer when they are trying to show where thunderstorms are going to pop up. They are too sensitive to convection and it's causing these jumps. Maybe I'm full of crap lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm anxious to see how heavy the precip is tonight and how much is sleet vs. snow. Looks to be interesting for sure.I'm thinking it flips quickly with the intense rates...Per Earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Overall we need this thing to change to snow quickly to get some good amounts. I can see many of us getting pissed because wasted heavy precip on rain/sleet. Horsham, PA 33.4/DP 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have an RGEM snow total from 18z? Its myfavorite short term model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wow so even the RGEM bullseyes Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 LOL...gotta love that white blob...the great white hope!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 LOL...gotta love that white blob...the great white hope!! Stretch it northeast a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The short range models are all over the place with the CCB. The heaviest convection over the Chesapeake seems to be moving due north rather than northeast though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Anyone have a way to track 850s? I'm getting worried about temps now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yea the radar looks like it would end up farther NW than the latest HRRR had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I think the hi res short term models are struggling with the convection. They are jumping all over the place similar to Summer when they are trying to show where thunderstorms are going to pop up. They are too sensitive to convection and it's causing these jumps. Maybe I'm full of crap lol. No I think that's exactly correct. But maybe I'm full of crap too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Common Ray show some excitement for once! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Everything on radar & upper levels looks farther NW than the HRRR...I think Ray was right, the Lehigh Valley gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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