NJ_Ken Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Between the radar blossoming down south and listening to some of the obs in the Mid-Atlantic Forum, it sounds like this evening is going to be interesting for most in the Delaware Valley: Several reports of hearing/seeing thunder and/or lightning with light rain/drizzle quickly changing over to heavy sleet then snow. Apparently Roanoke VA... which got an extreme pounding from the ULL... reported an additional 8" AFTER the lull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ray - interesting that as usual KMQS is the warmest spot in Western Chesco ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Rob, I dont know, the RAP looks pretty good to me. Anything can happen with these ULL's, but right now we are definitely in the bullseye on multiple models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am going with another 4"-8" for DYL, still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like the RAP and HRRR are pushing the jackpot area for tonight east (earlier runs were more generous west of the city). Still think our entire region will get at least a few inches of snow...jackpot area TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 On both of your posted pics try to go south on these views Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Would like some MET. input on this....Radar looks pretty damn good to me. Question remains, how fast will Philly change to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 this cannot be right, has to include precip that has already fallen Actually The map starts a 6pm tonight and ends 9 am tomm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 That cell near Baltimore is a thunderstorm. CG lightning being detected with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If anything the 19z HRRR just INCREASED snowfall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can you post maps that actually show PHL and not NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Actually The map starts a 6pm tonight and ends 9 am tomm. yeah i saw that after he posted it. well it still can't be right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Can you post maps that actually show PHL and not NYC? Next best thing I got : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 19z HRRR is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 19z HRRR is insane. Well yes, lol. Thats what I posted!!! 20z coming out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ordinarily i scoff at the HRRR and RAP but they did well with round 1. Broke clock is right twice a day thing or onto this second round who the heck knows. I would say convection and some crazy amounts with that energetic upper low will strike some lucky weenies in SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My bad diehard you get your maps first, I didnt realize that was hte 19z you posted, post 20z when it comes out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ordinarily i scoff at the HRRR and RAP but they did well with round 1. Broke clock is right twice a day thing or onto this second round who the heck knows. I would say convection and some crazy amounts with that energetic upper low will strike some lucky weenies in SEPA i wouldn't scoff at them at this timeframe, they are valuable tools. that being said, of course this is a situation that is subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We got some good model agreement now, holy cow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thunderstorm heading north over cape may! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 HRRR has the most QPF south of I-95. GFS/EURO disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Tony "Rainshadow"'s AFD is a must-read: .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...UNNECESSARY TRAVEL NOT RECOMMENDED TONIGHT BECAUSE OF HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE SECOND AND FINAL PHASE OF THIS WINTER STORM.THE COASTAL LOW ITSELF AT 3 PM WAS VERY NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY BUOY. PROPS TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT PEGGED THE TRACK THE BEST THROUGHOUT. WHILE WE ARE HANDING OUT PROPS, THE WRF-NMMB FGEN FIELDS DID AN EXCELLENT JOB OF PREDICTING THIS FRONT END BURST YESTERDAY, THEIR QPF THRU 12Z WAS MUCH CLOSER THAN ANY OTHER MODEL.THE SECOND PHASE OF THE WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW INTO OUR CWA THIS EVENING. WE CAN SEE THE CONVECTION BUBBLING IN VIRGINIA. THE CORE OF THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR (700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES) IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF OUR COAST UNDER THE CLOSED LOW AND WE FOLLOWED THIS FEATURE TO ADD A CHANCE OF THUNDER.ELSEWHERE THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE CLOSED LOW IS GOING TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP PROVIDE THE NECESSARY EXHAUST FOR ANOTHER BURST OF HEAVY PCPN AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING THIS EVENING. MODEL TIMING HAS COME CLOSER AS THE ECMWF IS NOW FASTER THAN YESTERDAY. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES AS TO THE HEAVIEST HIT AXIS FROM THIS SNOW (GENERALLY AFTER 7PM AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 6 INCHES) WITH THE ECMWF FURTHEST EAST. WE TOOK A MODEL BLEND CONSENSUS WITH THE QPF. THERMALLY, SOMEHOW WE HAVE MANAGED WITH EVEN ALL THIS SNOW TO BE WARMER THAT ALL MODEL 2M FCST TEMPS AS THE FREEZING MARK IS FAR NORTHWEST AS ABE AND RDG. THE FCST SOUNDINGS ALOFT ARE STILL SHOWING THE COLDER/LOWER 925MB TEMPS BYPASSING THE 850MB TEMPS HEADING TOWARD THE COAST. WE ARE EXPECTING SLEET TO INCREASE AS A PTYPE THIS EVENING AND THEN AS THE SNOWFALL RATES/INTENSITY INCREASE PTYPE CHANGES BACK TO SNOW IN MOST AREAS. THE SWEET SPOT FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS (LOWER SFC TEMPERATURES, COLDER THERMAL FIELDS PLUS HEAVIER PCPN) SHOULD BE FROM THE PHL NW SUBURBS NEWD INTO THE PASSAIC BASIN OF NJ. PLACES TO THE WEST MAY BE TOO REMOVED AND PLACES FARTHER TO THE EAST, NON SNOW PTYPES WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ACCUMS. BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED THUMPING SNOWFALL RATES (1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR), WE DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF OUR WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. WITH THE BETTER MODELING CONSENSUS, WE ARE EXPECTING THIS EVENT TO GO INTO THE BOOKS BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 We got some good model agreement now, holy cow. id know better if the map actually showed most of the PHL area! are you getting them from the NY subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 id know better if the map actually showed most of the PHL area! are you getting them from the NY subforum? No, there I get them. I live NW of PHL, sorry. I will post the 20z HRRR in a different view. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Thunderstorm heading north over cape may! Yep, Ch6 (Accu Weather) Adam Joseph just reported....25 lightning strikes. His call for tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cape May. Thunder with moderate rain at 5pm. Temp 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That storm is aimed at philly. Torrential thunder sleet soon buckle up Rob Trees are creaking from freezing drizzle. 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar says dry slot Fr Drizz since 2 Time for round two of the shovel battle temp 32 N Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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