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2/13-2/14/2014 2nd Half Major Coastal Storm Discusson/Observations


Rib

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I almost feel like today is a reverse 1/26/2011.  That storm gave me 5" of snow in the morning, followed by a lull with light sleet and drizzle and then of course a big hit from the ULL at night (which started as sleet/zr than became very heavy snow with 11.5" falling).

 

This started with the big hit in the morning (12.5") and looks like it could add another 3 to 6 inches tonight after the lull.

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Mesoscale discussion.for expanding snowfall in VA and S MD. Convective elements possible 

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CST THU FEB 13 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/N-CNTRL NC...SRN/ERN VA...SRN MD

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 131843Z - 132345Z

SUMMARY...AN AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WRN
VA AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL /WITH RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH/HR/ IS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PIVOT NEWD ACROSS THE
SERN QUADRANT OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...INDUCING A NEGATIVE TILT TO
THE UPPER LOW AND INCREASING ITS NEWD PROGRESSION. AS THIS
OCCURS...UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE ELONGATED SURFACE LOW OFF NRN
MID-ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO RAPID
DEEPENING OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MID-LEVEL LIFT ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

AS A RESULT OF THE OVERALL NEWD PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM AND
INCREASED LIFT...AREA OF MODERATE SNOWFALL CURRENTLY ACROSS WRN VA
AND WRN/CNTRL NC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD WHILE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH RATES IN EXCESS
OF 1 INCH/HR IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL VA BETWEEN
18-21Z AND WRN VA/SRN MD BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. ADDITIONALLY...SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES TEMPERATURES WILL COOL QUICK ENOUGH ABOVE 700 MB
TO SUPPORT 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES AOA 7 DEG C PER KM. RESULTANT
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS...INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL.

..MOSIER.. 02/13/2014

 

post-1201-0-59139000-1392319301_thumb.gi

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Temp down to 31.8f/30dp.

994mb

winds picking up gust to 21NNE

Upper Hanover, NW Montco

I like the timing of round two, into the darkness we go!

 

Everything has worked out / over performed  this year in every fashion.

 

Clouds lowering a bit since noon w/a steady wind and a slight mist. Temps down to 33.9 from 34.5 an hour or two ago.

 

Horsham, PA

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You may get your wish for thundersnow tonight!

 

Mitchell, I actually saw thundersnow this morning! Idk if anyone else can officially back me up. My neighbors snowblower was going so it was hard for me to hear thunder, but the sky lit up...my neighbors saw it as well. I doubt it was a transformer or anything. 

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