wxman_ind Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Kinda surprised the post-frontal wind potential isn't getting more play though a lot going on I guess with heavy rain/severe potential. I'm seeing widespread 50+ mph gust potential (possibly high wind warning criteria), if not here then north of here as that area will be closer to the bombing low. From IND's AFD: AM CONCERNED ABOUT GUSTY WINDS THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 0.5"+ amounts continue under the 12km NAM here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Didn't lose as much snow today as I expected but temps only made the mid-30's. Tomorrow low 40's with full sunshine should easily do away with the rest of what we got yesterday. Then thursday, The Great Melt™ arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Didn't lose as much snow today as I expected but temps only made the mid-30's. Tomorrow low 40's with full sunshine should easily do away with the rest of what we got yesterday. Then thursday, The Great Melt™ arrives.the snow will barely budget in the shade tomorrow.You wont lose all that you gained last night. Will be interesting to see what transpires Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 the snow will barely budget in the shade tomorrow.You wont lose all that you gained last night. Will be interesting to see what transpires Thursday. With the rain, fog, thunderstorms and temps/dews in the 40s, budget for at least half the snow pack to go away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 the snow will barely budget in the shade tomorrow.You wont lose all that you gained last night. Will be interesting to see what transpires Thursday. I hope you're right...but IMBY, it hit 45 today with sun from 7 AM - 1 PM, then clouds after that...and depth dropped from 16" to 10". The winds and full sun really did a number on the snow, even as dewpoints never got above 32. 'Tis that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I spent the last 2 years living up at MTU(back in the Mt.Clemens area now)... Last year I actually lived a couple hundred feet from the Hancock "snow-dump" in Ripley. Unfortunately I don't have any pics, but this pile was huge. Probably an average height of ~20ft, but the length and width was insane. When I get a chance, ill measure the dimensions on google earth. I remember it being warm enough for my roommate and I to catch a tan on the porch while studying for finals in early may, and if I remember correctly, that pile had barely budged. It was still 95% or so its maximal height.... I left town the week after, and it was still above 90%. While the DTW pile looks huge, you gotta remember that the city was dumping multiple gravel-hauler sized loads there per day. (And it wasnt quiet either. I cant remember how many times I thought someone was trying to kick in my front door only to find a gravel-hauler dropping off another load accross the street. That aside, I thought it'd be a perfect time to chime in for my first post. Ive been following the forum for the past 2 years and have appreciated the wealth of everyones WX knowledge. I'm an Electrical Engineering student so weathers definitely not my "forte", but I enjoy trying to learn what I can from scrolling the post! Welcome to the board. I am also an MTU EE. Spent 5 awesome years there including 2 full summer. Post what's going on up there. I always love a good MTU report. The webcam's are great to watch but having some tell us what is going on ... even better!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 With the rain, fog, thunderstorms and temps/dews in the 40s, budget for at least half the snow pack to go away. I second this. I lost two 20 inch+ snowpacks in late December and in mid January when we had uppers 40s for 2-3 days. We lost everything except piles both times. The higher sun angle is going to be even stronger in ripping apart the snow-pack. Both times we had 1 inch+ of rain though which is the real culprit in bringing down the snowpack so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 the snow will barely budget in the shade tomorrow.You wont lose all that you gained last night. Will be interesting to see what transpires Thursday. With the rain, fog, thunderstorms and temps/dews in the 40s, budget for at least half the snow pack to go away. At least we'll most likely keep our streak of 1" of snow on the ground going and could break the record, unless things get really crazy on Thursday which would be potentially catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 18z GFS really shoots the warm sector up here, complete with heavy rain before the dryslot comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I spent the last 2 years living up at MTU(back in the Mt.Clemens area now)... Last year I actually lived a couple hundred feet from the Hancock "snow-dump" in Ripley. Unfortunately I don't have any pics, but this pile was huge. Probably an average height of ~20ft, but the length and width was insane. When I get a chance, ill measure the dimensions on google earth. I remember it being warm enough for my roommate and I to catch a tan on the porch while studying for finals in early may, and if I remember correctly, that pile had barely budged. It was still 95% or so its maximal height.... I left town the week after, and it was still above 90%. While the DTW pile looks huge, you gotta remember that the city was dumping multiple gravel-hauler sized loads there per day. (And it wasnt quiet either. I cant remember how many times I thought someone was trying to kick in my front door only to find a gravel-hauler dropping off another load accross the street. That aside, I thought it'd be a perfect time to chime in for my first post. Ive been following the forum for the past 2 years and have appreciated the wealth of everyones WX knowledge. I'm an Electrical Engineering student so weathers definitely not my "forte", but I enjoy trying to learn what I can from scrolling the post! Welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Most of the Detroit area has 20-24" otg. By Friday will be around 10-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Most of the Detroit area has 20-24" otg. By Friday will be around 10-12" Sounds about right.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Sounds about right.. Tomorrow will do a lot damage temps near 40 full sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Most of the Detroit area has 20-24" otg. By Friday will be around 10-12" Losing half our snow depth and coming out still double digits is kinda mind boggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Tomorrow will do a lot damage temps near 40 full sunshine. Major compacting tomorrow. Then rain absorption on Thursday with some compacting. Friday should be a hold but depending on how it goes I may have to spend $$$ on salt for my driveway Saturday I am guessing I will have a 12"+ glacier IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Losing half our snow depth and coming out still double digits is kinda mind boggling Yes pretty crazy. I still have snow, slush or whatever it is otg from Decembers Ice storm. Dtx has lows of around 20 tomorrow night Im wondering if we get a period of Snow/Ice before the rain. How much is the big question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Tomorrow will do a lot damage temps near 40 full sunshine. Yeah there will be a lot of melting tomorrow probably as much as Thursday. Further south Friday could be near to slightly above freezing as well, combined with wind, that will dent the snow pack as well. That wind though might save our ass from having a big time black ice issue Friday Night into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah there will be a lot of melting tomorrow probably as much as Thursday. Further south Friday could be near to slightly above freezing as well, combined with wind, that will dent the snow pack as well. That wind though might save our ass from having a big time black ice issue Friday Night into Saturday. Black Ice is the worst thing in winter. People flying down the road everything appears to be good. Next couple nights is a legit issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 The threat is definitely there for power outages too with the ground being entirely saturated wherever snow has been melting for a couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lost 4" of snow depth today. Now 13". GFS brings the 50° dewpoint line into Chicago at 6pm Thursday. Intense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Both the NAM and the GFS indicate the potential for 50+ knot winds mixing down once CAA kicks in behind the low. Wouldn't be surprised to see high wind watches hosted eventually, especially across the W MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Black Ice is the worst thing in winter. People flying down the road everything appears to be good. Next couple nights is a legit issue. My dirt road is going to be awful. My driveway will be a sheet of ice. Great winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Wondering if temps will over perform tonight. The dewpoint is getting close to freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Warmer here right now that it was during the daylight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Warmer here right now that it was during the daylight Was at 31 at 6. Now at 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Was at 31 at 6. Now at 33 Ditto! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 What is the deal with the Detroit/ Erie connection. That's all frozen hard over right? What's going to happen when the water from the storm drains can't get to the river/lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 What is the deal with the Detroit/ Erie connection. That's all frozen hard over right? What's going to happen when the water from the storm drains can't get to the river/lake? I believe the river itself is open, however all the tributaries into the Detroit River are frozen and Lake Erie is as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 An ice jam is always a concern with this much ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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