Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Not much of a dry slot on the GFS for WI. Melt water is pouring down the drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems like we're coming toward some agreement on where the axis of heavier rain sets up. One north of here toward Chicago and another south of here in the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 4km NAM total precip around this region. 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Seems like we're coming toward some agreement on where the axis of heavier rain sets up. One north of here toward Chicago and another south of here in the Ohio Valley. Once convection actually gets going then we will know. Many time the heavier stuff along the warm front occur further south than the model show as t-storms tend to fire up sooner than the models portray and the warm front get hung up further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Once convection actually gets going then we will know. Many time the heavier stuff along the warm front occur further south than the model show as t-storms tend to fire up sooner than the models portray and the warm front get hung up further south. Could happen. Just commenting about where the model consensus is right now. Speaking of the warm front, I'd watch that activity for possible localized overpeformance. The stuff along the cold front looks like it would have less potential to train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 With temps jumping into the 40's, ORD has already lost close to 2" of snow. Depth was 14" at 6AM, and is down to 12" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 18, 2014 Author Share Posted February 18, 2014 Kinda surprised the post-frontal wind potential isn't getting more play though a lot going on I guess with heavy rain/severe potential. I'm seeing widespread 50+ mph gust potential (possibly high wind warning criteria), if not here then north of here as that area will be closer to the bombing low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 already minor street flooding asssociated with melting snow and clogged drains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I saw them last week....absolutely insane. I have never seen anything like that, even in my trips to Lake Superior snowbelt. I think they reserve that whole space for all the runways snow anyway, so even in a lackluster winter theres a lot piled up there. I need to figure out how I can go there and take pics....not a good idea to fiddle around with a camera while driving on the service drive at the airport They don't pile them up in one spot up there. Don't get any ideas, the snow in the UP is dense and the cliffs in peoples yards are sky high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Could happen. Just commenting about where the model consensus is right now. Speaking of the warm front, I'd watch that activity for possible localized overpeformance. The stuff along the cold front looks like it would have less potential to train. Understood. Totally agree about over performance along the warm front. IMO northern IN and OH could get significant QPF along the warm front! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 They don't pile them up in one spot up there. Don't get any ideas, the snow in the UP is dense and the cliffs in peoples yards are sky high. At MTU and Houghton they have a spot where the pile the entire cities snow as they remove it with dump trucks and front end loaders. It is like one huge snow 'gravel like' pit. I know in summer of '96 it took until mid-August for it to all finally melt. Last summer I have to wonder with the very cool summer in the UP if it actually all melted or not before this winter kicked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 already minor street flooding asssociated with melting snow and clogged drains. Same here. Torching out there. 45°. Cooler near the lake in Racine. 59° at STL. EURO takes the low from Keokuk to Munising, MI. 969mb over Lake Superior. Hoosier wasn't kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 At MTU and Houghton they have a spot where the pile the entire cities snow as they remove it with dump trucks and front end loaders. It is like one huge snow 'gravel like' pit. I know in summer of '96 it took until mid-August for it to all finally melt. Last summer I have to wonder with the very cool summer in the UP if it actually all melted or not before this winter kicked in. I actually remember reading about that "back in the day" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hoosier wasn't kidding. Pretty sure he was talking POST frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Pretty sure he was talking POST frontal. Guess I can't read today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 up to 45 here as well, water just pouring off the roofs of skyscrapers downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Up to 37 here in St Paul. Water dripping thru my skylight as we speak. Shoveled about 20" of snow off the roof this morning. Heading back to Chicago before the blizzard in MN/epic rainstorm in N IL. Good times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Gorgeous outside. Taking down some of my big snow piles so my wife has a better path through the driveway. Threw half the pile onto the driveway/street and it's all gone. Now i'm just hitting ice with the pile. Flooding is going to be horrific I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Lots of ponding and rivers along streets here already. Just going to get worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 From LOT SPEAKING OF INTENSITY OF THE PRECIPITATION...STILL VERY CONCERNEDABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. REMARKABLE HOW MOST OF THE MODELS HAVENOW COME AROUND TO WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR DAYS BEFOREITS BRIEF COUPLE RUN HICCUP. STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT NOW EXISTS FORTRACKING A STRONG AND EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOOUR WEST ON THURSDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A MASSIVE INFLUX MOISTUREAND RELATIVE WARMTH INTO THE REGION. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THEHEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 06 AND 18Z THURSDAYWITH THE INITIAL WAA SURGE. GIVEN PWATS OF UP TO 275% OF NORMALFEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMSENHANCING RAINFALL RATES...AM CONCERNED THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULDPICK UP WELL OVER AN INCH OF RAIN LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURS MORNING.ENTIRE CWA NOW LOOKS TO SURGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY WITHDEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S AND PROBABLY EVEN LOW 50S SOUTH OFTHE KANKAKEE RIVER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPIDSNOW MELT...ADDING TO THE RUNOFF FROM THE MORNING HEAVY RAINFALL.EXPECT COVERAGE OF RAIN TO DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOMEREDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION COULD TAKE PLACE ALONG QUICK MOVING COLDFRONT WHICH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUTA CONVECTIVE HIGH WIND THREAT...MAINLY SOUTHEAST CWA...GIVEN THESTRONG FORCING WITH NEARLY 300M/12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS ANDEXTREMELY STRONG WIND FIELDS. LUCKILY IT WOULD APPEAR THE AFTERNOONSHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE FAST MOVERS AND MUCH LESS OFA HYDRO CONCERN. WILL UNDOUBTEDLY NEED A FLOOD WATCH EVENTUALLY FORTHIS TIME PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I actually remember reading about that "back in the day" lol This winter might actually finish below normal in some UP locations, the lack of LES is amazing. I was in the UP all weekend and it was blue skies every day, NEVER seen that in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centriptic Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 At MTU and Houghton they have a spot where the pile the entire cities snow as they remove it with dump trucks and front end loaders. It is like one huge snow 'gravel like' pit. I know in summer of '96 it took until mid-August for it to all finally melt. Last summer I have to wonder with the very cool summer in the UP if it actually all melted or not before this winter kicked in. I spent the last 2 years living up at MTU(back in the Mt.Clemens area now)... Last year I actually lived a couple hundred feet from the Hancock "snow-dump" in Ripley. Unfortunately I don't have any pics, but this pile was huge. Probably an average height of ~20ft, but the length and width was insane. When I get a chance, ill measure the dimensions on google earth. I remember it being warm enough for my roommate and I to catch a tan on the porch while studying for finals in early may, and if I remember correctly, that pile had barely budged. It was still 95% or so its maximal height.... I left town the week after, and it was still above 90%. While the DTW pile looks huge, you gotta remember that the city was dumping multiple gravel-hauler sized loads there per day. (And it wasnt quiet either. I cant remember how many times I thought someone was trying to kick in my front door only to find a gravel-hauler dropping off another load accross the street. That aside, I thought it'd be a perfect time to chime in for my first post. Ive been following the forum for the past 2 years and have appreciated the wealth of everyones WX knowledge. I'm an Electrical Engineering student so weathers definitely not my "forte", but I enjoy trying to learn what I can from scrolling the post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Amazing, almost 50* back at home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Amazing, almost 50* back at home! weird, just dropped down to 41 on the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Hope I get dry slotted. Gotta perserve the snowpack for HM's pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 weird, just dropped down to 41 on the bank clock I see there is more clouds down your way. We're going to be swimming to work Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Clouds killing the snow melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Almost full sun up this way still. Peaked at 49.9° back at home. Temp just shot up in Racine after the wind shifted. I think Thursday is going to torch big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 lost close to 5 inches to melt and compaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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