Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 12z Euro has 35-40kt sustained winds over eastern Iowa late tomorrow afternoon as the low bombs into Wisconsin. Shows 60-65kts at 900mb. Should yield high wind warning winds over much of the area. Expecting a half inch to inch of rain tonight/early tomorrow before dry slot. Can't wait to hear some thunder again. Not expecting anything other than wind blown flurries tomorrow night in the back wash. BUFKIT looks impressive across the area. Looks like there's a window where gusts could get into the 60-65 mph range with several hours of 50 mph or greater either side of that. Probably going to be some power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Bring on the cold, wind-driven, light/moderate stratiform rains!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 BUFKIT looks impressive across the area. Looks like there's a window where gusts could get into the 60-65 mph range with several hours of 50 mph or greater either side of that. Probably going to be some power outages. Was just thinking that myself. Time to make sure the laptop's charged up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Sitting with about 5-6" of snow in sunny areas of my yard. So the rain will have a chance to pound away at the concrete layer tomorrow in places. An average of 11" in shaded areas. 14" tops where it drifted. Grass patches are common now, especially just over the border in Wisconsin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Interesting to hear you and dmc say that...today did a huge hit "around the edges" but actual depth is only about 2" lower than it was at 8am. The center of fields here lost nearly nothing... I mean, flat, isolated fields. Now my neighborhood took a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like a disagreement on snow depth at ORD between observers... 7" depth at 12z, 9" at 18z and now 6" at 0z. RFD and LOT are at 8" as of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 A few of the 15z SREF members go nuts with the surface low. Can't even make out how deep...almost looks like a hurricane with the extremely tight pressure gradient. Entertaining to look at if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 21-22" depth to 15" today Edit 5-6" lost since 1 pm. Rapid melt. Wow that's more than I lost /compacted mostly about ~3" max here. I notice my temps got stuck at 40 and were already down to 38 at 4:45PM and 36 by 6:30. Dripping has stopped here as of 7:30. Solid crust layer on top now. Being rural (nothing but farms, lakes and woods around) must really help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 The center of fields here lost nearly nothing... I mean, flat, isolated fields. Now my neighborhood took a hit. Yes that is what I noticed too. Not being in a neighborhood greatly help MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wow that's more than I lost /compacted mostly about ~3" here. I notice my temps got stuck at 40 and were already down to 38 at 4:45PM and 36 by 6:30. Dripping has stopped here as of 7:30. Solid crust layer on top now. Being rural (nothing but farms, lakes and woods around) must really help. When the sun went down, we had a crust layer form and even then the outside temp was 38. My guess is that the cold ground and snow below acted like a hockey rink and cooled the above layer down when the sun wasn't there to tip it over the edge into melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 When the sun went down, we had a crust layer form and even then the outside temp was 38. My guess is that the cold ground and snow below acted like a hockey rink and cooled the above layer down when the sun wasn't there to tip it over the edge into melting. This crust layer will be helpful tomorrow IF the temps don't go out of control. Any further NW trend would not help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Looks like a disagreement on snow depth at ORD between observers... 7" depth at 12z, 9" at 18z and now 6" at 0z. RFD and LOT are at 8" as of 0z. I never remember a winter when snow depth was so hard to measure on a daily basis because a winter long snowcover that has had so much drifting. Every spot seems to be a different depth, so obviously the depth is going to be the observers best discretion. But at least check the last observation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 This crust layer will be helpful tomorrow IF the temps don't go out of control. Any further NW trend would not help. The only sucky thing is that I don't see much snow coming over the next 10 days, just a few inches would revert the landscape back to pre-torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 When the sun went down, we had a crust layer form and even then the outside temp was 38. My guess is that the cold ground and snow below acted like a hockey rink and cooled the above layer down when the sun wasn't there to tip it over the edge into melting. The same thing happened here, I actually broke my yard stick trying to measure how much snow melted (only 3" melted still have 15" of my glacier left) and it was still 39 out at the time, and the sidewalks and road froze up too, thinking the icing here is going to be bad tomorrow now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Wow that's more than I lost /compacted mostly about ~3" max here. I notice my temps got stuck at 40 and were already down to 38 at 4:45PM and 36 by 6:30. Dripping has stopped here as of 7:30. Solid crust layer on top now. Being rural (nothing but farms, lakes and woods around) must really help. Well I do live in a newer sub. We have little in the way of trees. So we don't get much protection from the sun. That could be one reason. I know driving around today seeing homes that is covered or is around wooded areas it did look like they lost nothing. Temps right now is 34. should be no problem to get to the low 20's tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 00z NAM a tad stronger so far. This is gonna be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Man this flooding is going to be unreal. The ice is about 18" deep on most rivers around here so the ice jams could be unbelievable and sadly we could see some towns just completely inundated tomorrow. Strong chance of some unbelievable numbers tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 NAM showing initial slug of precipitation as almost all rain in NE IL. Low to track over Galena, IL later in the day. Then near to just west of MSN. 974mb over the middle of Lake Superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I better hear some thunder tomorrow, after having to go through this hideous torch and meltdown. Surprised you poked your head out! Figured you'd sleep for the next 3 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Man this flooding is going to be unreal. The ice is about 18" deep on most rivers around here so the ice jams could be unbelievable and sadly we could see some towns just completely inundated tomorrow. Strong chance of some unbelievable numbers tomorrow hopefully it wont be that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I better hear some thunder tomorrow, after having to go through this hideous torch and meltdown. I feel the same way. You have a better chance than me though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 hopefully it wont be that bad Problem is going to be down the road mostly as tomorrow is mostly a set up for future disaster (thankfully not IMBY)!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 20, 2014 Author Share Posted February 20, 2014 LOT issued a High Wind Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radioman Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 ...DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-INZ001-002-201130-/O.NEW.KLOT.HW.A.0001.140221T0000Z-140221T1200Z/WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-LAKE IN-PORTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...GARY...VALPARAISO927 PM CST WED FEB 19 2014...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATETHURSDAY NIGHT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A HIGH WINDWATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATETHURSDAY NIGHT.* TIMING...EARLY THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.* WINDS...SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS TO 40 MPH AND GUSTSOF 50 TO 60 MPH.* IMPACTS...WINDS THIS STRONG MAY RESULT IN TREE DAMAGE...EASILYTOSS LIGHTWEIGHT UNSECURED OBJECTS AND MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS FORHIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUSHIGH WIND EVENT. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH...OR GUSTS OF58 MPH OR STRONGER MAY OCCUR. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATESTFORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I haven't kept track of the accuracy of the RGEM, but it still puts down an awful amount of moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 I'm thinking the soft/spongy snow will soak up a lot of the rain in this area. The big problem will be the many streets/side roads that have their storm drains blocked by massive mountains of icy snow. There will be a lot of roads with street flooding tomorrow, but that's not that big of a deal in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Gonna be very windy around here tomorrow eve. Disagree with DVN in not going with high wind watches. LOT has the right idea. Gonna reach warning criteria in many areas tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magoos0728 Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Chances of my flight landing Thursday evening at MKE are??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Gonna be very windy around here tomorrow eve. Disagree with DVN in not going with high wind watches. LOT has the right idea. Gonna reach warning criteria in many areas tomorrow evening. Tried to convince them to get on board with us, MKX and ILX but alas... The high wind signal looks at least as good as it does in their eastern areas (far eastern IA, northwest/west central IL) as it does in the LOT CWA. Top of the mixed layer on BUFKIT pushing 60 kt, especially on the 00z NAM, with the mean mixed layer gusts close to criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Lightning and thunder! Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.