CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS absolutely nukes BOS and just SE with the CCB, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 what about back this way, noyes says only an inch....on the outside looking in again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 what about back this way, noyes says only an inch....on the outside looking in again? Depends on the model...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Congrats eastern folks--looks like some fun for you. At least I won't return on Monday to a snow-filled driveway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM and NAM still a little meh outside of PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On my phone...how's the deformation chances looking up here on the GFS/GEFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS on its own for something that widespread and heavy. We'll need to see other guidance move at 12z to make it credible. Otherwise it kind ofreminds me of that system a week after the Feb blizzard last year where the GFS kept trying for the full blown blizzard storm for eastern MA and instead it was advisory snows except for the Cape which was heavier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro for now makes the most sense to me and that actually kisses BOS with the CCB. Close call. 20 mile shifts mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro for now makes the most sense to me and that actually kisses BOS with the CCB. Close call. 20 mile shifts mean a lot. So do 150-mile shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro for now makes the most sense to me and that actually kisses BOS with the CCB. Close call. 20 mile shifts mean a lot. Ensembles were actually prety good...they might be slightly better than the OP run despite basically identical low placement...since the whole mass field is slightly shifted west it looks like west of the center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Box seems confident on at least widespread advisory... Already <1/4 mile visibility in eastern MA zone forecasts First map is out... I'd think steeper gradient into Plymouth east to Cape, but plenty of time to refine: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Some are thinking 6"+, some are thinking up to 6", while others think 4-8, or 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Some are thinking 6"+, some are thinking up to 6", while others think 4-8, or 5-8"Sounds like everyone is thinking similar thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ensembles were actually prety good...they might be slightly better than the OP run despite basically identical low placement...since the whole mass field is slightly shifted west it looks like west of the center. Yeah, well it will be nice to get some snow back after losing some last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do we have a time frame on start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do we have a time frame on start and end? My rough estimation. Start time in NJ is around 10am to noon and into Boston around 2pm or so. Finishes before dawn on Sunday in SNE. Pretty quick hitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm hesitant to buy the gfs on a coastal storm. But this is northern stream so I guess it does better. But it was so god awful with yesterday's storm up until the last day or so prior. If it has support at 12z then I buy it. That being said...Ihave a 7:10pm flight tomorrow BOS-JFK to connect to an overnight flight to Doha. I can't miss this flight so I'm going to book Amtrak as back up. NYC is 1-3 ending by evening according to their zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do we have a time frame on start and end? Starting after noon tomorrow and going into the AM Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a weird storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a weird storm.Not againWeird as in tough forecast or just strange atmospheric conditions for the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The one thing this low will do that others haven't this year is rapidly deepen east of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 HPC has much of NH and ME, most of SNE in a moderate 4+ and low prob 8+. That is a pretty strong signal at this point that they think it is coming further north than what DT says the laws of physics won't allow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 09z SREFs ticked the 1" contour W about 10mi over the mid-Cape. 0.5" contour goes from about Portsmouth to Westerly. Not much movement on that contour 988mb low rounding the BM by about 30 mi S & E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREFs haeld serve with the 0.5" line, but brought the 1" line further west towards FMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The one thing this low will do that others haven't this year is rapidly deepen east of CC.That would be a great look bos south down rt 3 coastal communities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Srefs are muted by the 6z nam IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Srefs are muted by the 6z nam IMHO. I feel like this may tick east last second, but hope I am wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I feel like this may tick east last second, but hope I am wrong. I am pulling for the west trend to continue, on a level one could argue is almost spiritual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nam is caving finally. Another 3-4 runs it should dial this in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z Nam should be better then 06z, Troff sharper digging towards Florida, s/w a tad west of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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