Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

Would have been easier to answer "no the west trend does not end" as by that point the storm is past the area. :lmao:

 

There's really no west "trend" when the models just picked up the solution in the last run or two (and really only one full run).  If it's still going west at 12z...we can call it a trend, but right now it's no storm/storm.

 

Pete Bouchard forecasting 4-8" everywhere south and east of Wilmington.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Well this system has my attention now.  I put it on the back burner while we were leading up to and dealing with today's mess.

 

But now that today is almost over time to look ahead to Saturday.  

 

Will is 100% right when he keeps saying he doesn't like how far south the shortwave is digging in the NAM or ukie compared to the GFS.

 

Just look at the surface reflection differences between the GFS and NAM at 36 hours.  NAM is more South Carolina-ish while the GFS is North Carolina. 

 

In the end that 50-100 miles means the difference between a blizzard and some fringe effects.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

every single newscast said it including national news, people at work were talking about it yesterday. Today was a great storm for 75% of NE. Hope you get slammed oh FYI 18-24 SR by the end

 

There was no mention of it at all in Boston.   If they're using the various phone tools the forecast derived from NOAA stuff was nothing earlier and now maybe an inch or two Saturday.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't forget Bob Copeland. He went off into the sunset...literally and is now an accomplished artist up in NH.

Copeland and now Burbank were among the few good daytime mets around here. Todd Gross was in his day too. The rest...

Copland was okay. Gross was good. I'd take either of them today to replace most of what we have.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chances of it coming far enough to say hit northern Nj hard are slim as modeled. But as we saw today models can move large scale features in short windows

Agreed. It is just annoying how he doesn't have an objective tone to his analysis. He belittles New England for "getting excited" about the GFS. Seems a little childish to me but whatever, that's DT I guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed. It is just annoying how he doesn't have an objective tone to his analysis. He belittles New England for "getting excited" about the GFS. Seems a little childish to me but whatever, that's DT I guess.

I like Dave but don't pay any attention to his forecasts for my area. It'd be like me trying to tell someone how much snow is going to fall in Richmond. Now that his beloved euro is similar....what's he going to do ride the ukmet?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6z NAM swings and fouls it off again compared to 0Z NAM

 

differences apparent by 36h (9z Sat) when shortwave energy rounding base of trough on 6Z NAM/18z NAM is 2 separate pieces of energy that consequently lead to a flatter more progressive flow and energy moves too far east before it goes off

 

contrast this to 0z NAM which has 1 focused piece of energy that tilts the trough negative and even closes of at h5 by 3z Sunday, keeping SLP much closer to coast

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6Z/0Z GFS with more run-to-run consistency at H5 than NAM... and shows how it's done

 

another great hit with blizzard conditions to eastern MA Saturday night

taint issues introduced to outer cape

 

for KBOS total qpf:

6Z NAM: 0.03"

vs.

0Z NAM: 0.32"

 

6Z/0Z GFS: ~0.8", warning criteria to ORH esp on 6Z GFS

0Z GFS for KPYM: 1.1"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...