Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Would have been easier to answer "no the west trend does not end" as by that point the storm is past the area. There's really no west "trend" when the models just picked up the solution in the last run or two (and really only one full run). If it's still going west at 12z...we can call it a trend, but right now it's no storm/storm. Pete Bouchard forecasting 4-8" everywhere south and east of Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well this system has my attention now. I put it on the back burner while we were leading up to and dealing with today's mess. But now that today is almost over time to look ahead to Saturday. Will is 100% right when he keeps saying he doesn't like how far south the shortwave is digging in the NAM or ukie compared to the GFS. Just look at the surface reflection differences between the GFS and NAM at 36 hours. NAM is more South Carolina-ish while the GFS is North Carolina. In the end that 50-100 miles means the difference between a blizzard and some fringe effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 every single newscast said it including national news, people at work were talking about it yesterday. Today was a great storm for 75% of NE. Hope you get slammed oh FYI 18-24 SR by the end There was no mention of it at all in Boston. If they're using the various phone tools the forecast derived from NOAA stuff was nothing earlier and now maybe an inch or two Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Don't forget Bob Copeland. He went off into the sunset...literally and is now an accomplished artist up in NH. Copeland and now Burbank were among the few good daytime mets around here. Todd Gross was in his day too. The rest... Copland was okay. Gross was good. I'd take either of them today to replace most of what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GEFS .5" line Boston to Providence, .75 Scott through Bob, 1" canal, 1.25" mid cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sad that I'm now at the age where many of the icons of my youth are passing. Last time I watched this Chet was alive. Some of the greats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Even in the early 80s we had cape scrappers back when the only radar we had was Chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm going to rely on mets here when Harv and Barry retire. I rely on mets here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well, according to DT, this storm can't come north because of the "simple laws of wave physics." Now I really want it to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well, according to DT, this storm can't come north because of the "simple laws of wave physics." Now I really want it to come north. Chances of it coming far enough to say hit northern Nj hard are slim as modeled. But as we saw today models can move large scale features in short windows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro is going to be a big hit for the cape and prob at least advisory for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro is going to be a big hit for the cape and prob at least advisory for SE MA. Nice was hoping you were still up, I guess this is so short lead there isn't much waiting! How big down heree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like 0.75" line is around Canal...BOS is about 0.40" Outer Cape near inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like 0.75" line is around Canal...BOS is about 0.40" Outer Cape near inch of QPF. Thanks. So that's a little lighter than the gfs but in the same consensus of others. Gfs nam euro would give me 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like 0.75" line is around Canal...BOS is about 0.40" Outer Cape near inch of QPF. Anything back in the Worcester area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Chances of it coming far enough to say hit northern Nj hard are slim as modeled. But as we saw today models can move large scale features in short windows Agreed. It is just annoying how he doesn't have an objective tone to his analysis. He belittles New England for "getting excited" about the GFS. Seems a little childish to me but whatever, that's DT I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Downeast ME crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Anything back in the Worcester area? Maybe 0.10-0.20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agreed. It is just annoying how he doesn't have an objective tone to his analysis. He belittles New England for "getting excited" about the GFS. Seems a little childish to me but whatever, that's DT I guess. I like Dave but don't pay any attention to his forecasts for my area. It'd be like me trying to tell someone how much snow is going to fall in Richmond. Now that his beloved euro is similar....what's he going to do ride the ukmet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z runs are game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 00z runs are game on. Really the whole suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 USA vs ussr and a snowstorm. That's a great Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 can we lock in the 6z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z NAM swings and fouls it off again compared to 0Z NAM differences apparent by 36h (9z Sat) when shortwave energy rounding base of trough on 6Z NAM/18z NAM is 2 separate pieces of energy that consequently lead to a flatter more progressive flow and energy moves too far east before it goes off contrast this to 0z NAM which has 1 focused piece of energy that tilts the trough negative and even closes of at h5 by 3z Sunday, keeping SLP much closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z gfs is 6-12 for most if us.. Huge hit. Actually rains for the meat of it on the cape east of the canal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6Z/0Z GFS with more run-to-run consistency at H5 than NAM... and shows how it's done another great hit with blizzard conditions to eastern MA Saturday night taint issues introduced to outer cape for KBOS total qpf: 6Z NAM: 0.03" vs. 0Z NAM: 0.32" 6Z/0Z GFS: ~0.8", warning criteria to ORH esp on 6Z GFS 0Z GFS for KPYM: 1.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z gfs is 6-12 for most if us.. Huge hit. Actually rains for the meat of it on the cape east of the canal.Encouraging for us up here. We'll see how 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wsw issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6Z GEFS look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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