KartAnimal29 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Flurries on NAM for most of CT except far EAST looks like it will be right Not at my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 HFS nudged east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Update BOX totals expanded NW and amounts increased. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ They haven't been upped nw of Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 HFS nudged east It's been a little lost with this but only marginally more than the over banded models. RGEM pushed .5 west. 4km NAM came way west hitting a lot of Plymouth county with 15-20". GFS at least is picking up on the banding signal..almost...but it's out of time. If we ended up with some near historic numbers down around here it'll be a big turd burger for the GFS imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What is the HFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Steady light snow all the way back here in the NW territories of MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What is the HFS? Less sucky version of the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What is the HFS? Hiney Forecasting System? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think it may have the idea to a point, this is a Messenger special for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS always vomits at least once in nowcast situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If Box map is anywhere close to verifying, huge coup for the GFS. First model to depict anything close to this when NAM/Euro were still showing cirrus / barely advisory for eastern MA. Let's not revise history on this. Been away all day, just now reviewing data / models from the day. Messenger, I love ya and you're one of my favorite posters, but step back from the wet towel thing... supported by any of the big models. NAM/GFS/EC 12z all have your area at least a foot and big hits for eastern MA in general. 15z HRRR limits sustained 1-2"/hr rate to Boston south and east and 4km NAM depicts similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 They haven't been upped nw of Boston.They did increase mine as im now on line of 10-14 and was like 6 earlier. Sharp cut offHopefully 18z gfs is clueless on lift bc that would equal crap bos to cape Ann nw for most of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think it may have the idea to a point, this is a Messenger special for sure. I could see Ginx to GON putting up big totals. Maybe 10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If Box map is anywhere close to verifying, huge coup for the GFS. First model to depict anything close to this when NAM/Euro were still showing cirrus / barely advisory for eastern MA. Let's not revise history on this. Been away all day, just now reviewing data / models from the day. Messenger, I love ya and you're one of my favorite posters, but step back from the wet towel thing... supported by any of the big models. NAM/GFS/EC 12z all have your area at least a foot and big hits for eastern MA in general. 15z HRRR limits sustained 1-2"/hr rate to Boston south and east and 4km NAM depicts similar. GFS/Ukie will have nailed this with 6 inch amounts from 91 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I could see Ginx to GON putting up big totals. Maybe 10"? Yeah I can see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think it may have the idea to a point, this is a Messenger special for sure. Within 15 miles of here either way, it's tough to say yet where it really wants to setup. If Box map is anywhere close to verifying, huge coup for the GFS. First model to depict anything close to this when NAM/Euro were still showing cirrus / barely advisory for eastern MA. Let's not revise history on this. Been away all day, just now reviewing data / models from the day. Messenger, I love ya and you're one of my favorite posters, but step back from the wet towel thing... supported by any of the big models. NAM/GFS/EC 12z all have your area at least a foot and big hits for eastern MA in general. 15z HRRR limits sustained 1-2"/hr rate to Boston south and east and 4km NAM depicts similar. West of the band between 24 and 95 the 20z HRRR drops totals off very quickly. Remains to be seen how much further west the band gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Within 15 miles of here either way, it's tough to say yet where it really wants to setup. West of the band between 24 and 95 the 20z HRRR drops totals off very quickly. Remains to be seen how much further west the band gets. As usual the RAP ramps down within T+4 hours. That model is classic...you always know it is too far west...such a bias...I only use it for trends really. I may get kissed by the banding, but looks like GHG south FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm not 100% on this..but I think you can see the beginning of the Norlun taking shape somewhere in the NYC/Sw Ct vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Scott u really buy into the gfs 18z wrt lift being east It would seem ur in line for a foot on box map which would require big lift unless u mean u get 10-11 and messenger 16 or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What does GHG stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Marshfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Scott u really buy into the gfs 18z wrt lift being east It would seem ur in line for a foot on box map which would require big lift I don't like seeing the RAP just back off. We'll see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't like seeing the RAP just back off. We'll see I guess. You can sort of see the NW movement slow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 There looks to be a band setting up in a triangle from Bridgewater to Marshfield over to Plymouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 As usual the RAP ramps down within T+4 hours. That model is classic...you always know it is too far west...such a bias...I only use it for trends really. I may get kissed by the banding, but looks like GHG south FTW. it's going to be close I think it's west of you as the boundary. Problem is as you know it'll be a steeper transition possibly than even the mesos show with a sharp drop from 10" to much less. The most epic band right now is between 24 and 95 just about over KTAN. Notice the OKX radar shows the spiral now starting to drop out and the returns beginning to do the same in parts of CT. The heaviest returns that are south of the cape are struggling to move NW and are washing out before they reach the canal. Still not convinced the RGEM is entirely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think we gotta give it more than 3 Frames before deciding its washing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You can sort of see the NW movement slow too. Definitely slowing as the feature se of OKX begins to drop e/se. Radar is far more impressive than what is actually falling here. But be careful you're going to be accused of being a Debbie in microanalyzing the current condition (more significantly you're not stating a more favorable outcome) Someone asked...about 1.7" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RGEM will not be right, but I guess my question is how the band sets up. GFS just tickles this area. Just don't completely buy NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Definitely slowing as the feature se of OKX begins to drop e/se. Radar is far more impressive than what is actually falling here. But be careful you're going to be accused of being a Debbie in microanalyzing the current condition (more significantly you're not stating a more favorable outcome) Someone asked...about 1.7" here. It's heavy here. I don't see anything wrong with radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think we gotta give it more than 3 Frames before deciding its washing out it's actually pretty well forecast. Those returns will struggle for a bit to make it much further west until the entire thing begins to tilt more N S in a few hours. Meanwhile the band between 95 and 24 is taking no prisoners. Narrow but what a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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