weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's funny how many people jump on an off hour NAM run. Yet if this showed a whiff it would be tossed faster than you could bat an eye. Nam is like a box of chocolates...you never know what you're gonna get... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...INTERIOR SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 152004Z - 160200Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES EXCEEDING 1 INCH PER HOUR...WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS INDICATE INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...AS THE GAP BETWEEN A POWERFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AND A COASTAL BAROCLINIC ZONE NARROWS. SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED OFF THE VA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT DEVELOPS NEWD...WHILE STRONG/DEEP FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS PENETRATING INLAND COMBINE WITH STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER SUFFICIENTLY COLD THERMAL PROFILES FOR HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. MODERATE SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SRN NEW ENGLAND...AND HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE ERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 21-23Z. HEAVY SNOW WILL SPREAD FARTHER NE THROUGH THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING AREAS NEAR AND NE OF PORTLAND MAINE AROUND/AFTER 01-03Z. WITH THE STRONG ASCENT INTERCEPTING 50-100-MB-DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES CENTERED AROUND H6...SNOWFALL RATES AOA 1 INCH/HOUR WILL BE COMMON INTO THE EVENING. COASTAL MA AND VICINITY -- ESPECIALLY E OF A LINE FROM BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE INCLUDING CAPE COD -- WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND 23-03Z. THESE AREAS WILL BE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRONGEST ASCENT...AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE RATES. RAIN MAY INITIALLY OCCUR WITH THE PRECIPITATION OVER CAPE COD THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...DESCENDING WET-BULB FREEZING HEIGHTS WILL GIVE WAY TO A HEAVY WET SNOW BY EARLY EVENING WHILE SUB-FREEZING ISOTHERMAL LAYERS AOB H7 PROMOTE EFFICIENT SNOW AGGREGATION. ALSO...STRONG WINDS NW OF THE LOW TRACK WILL YIELD BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ..COHEN.. 02/15/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 someone just shoot me now....and there are plenty of people who got plenty of snow in the last system who will get plenty again today Yea I don't really care when SE mass rains because I remember all of these deals...and for those in ESNE who got snow the other day they're going to do well again today... just a screwjie for our area respectively this year... SWCT even cleaned up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CST SAT FEB 15 2014 If you ignore the QPF on the models, they've done very well highlighting that blue shaded area for the last 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's funny how many people jump on an off hour NAM run. Yet if this showed a whiff it would be tossed faster than you could bat an eye. Chris it's the M.O. of the forum as the model churns. Always has, always will be. *Please move my comment to banter cause that's all this is! ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If you ignore the QPF on the models, they've done very well highlighting that blue shaded area for the last 24 hours. Indeed. I went to now casting early this am by watching radar and obs. I pop in occasionally to see who is bridge jumping, tossing this model or that model. The emotions running very high in here today. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 curious as to how far west this gets. ORH (at least NE side) has been snowing moderately now for about 1.5 hrs. Looks like we are on the westernmost edge of potentially 1" hr rates. NAM delivering up to 0.75? We'll see. What are the pros saying about the storm? In agreement with NWS map posting/ predictions, or, are they wacky? Its hard to follow the different reasoning here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Blizzard Warning expanded to include all of PYM County? I don't remember that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nam 850/700 low positions look pretty nice for a severe thump tonight pre midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yea I don't really care when SE mass rains because I remember all of these deals...and for those in ESNE who got snow the other day they're going to do well again today... just a screwjie for our area respectively this year... SWCT even cleaned upthere is nothing we can do about the weather but its the truth that it has been pedestrian at best considering how well just about everyone to the se and sw has done.....it will likely be a long time before we get this many chances again in the winter and this year we just havent done much with them....i had resigned myself to 3 or so inches for this one and now it looks like we may not even do that but i keep hoping for a miracle and keep being called a debbie by folks who are one to two hundred pct above climo lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Update BOX totals expanded NW and amounts increased. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/StormTotalSnow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Blizzard Warning expanded to include all of PYM County? I don't remember that before Yes indeed BOX has expanded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Box updated. 10-14 all the way back into Rhode Island. 14-18 southern Plymouth county to the canal-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New Englander Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now in the NW edge of 10-14. Liking this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Box hates to blizzard warn BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 10-14 pretty much from the north shore to the outer cape. Great ESNE storm underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Box hates to blizzard warn BOS. I personally think it's funny. Logan is more likely to verify blizzard than BVY. They just don't want to let the hype spin out of control with the largest city being in a blizzard, but like it or not people are going to call it a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Probability from box of at least 8 inches is over 90% in Plymouth and Bristol county and over 50% probability of at least a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I personally think it's funny. Logan is more likely to verify blizzard than BVY. They just don't want to let the hype spin out of control with the largest city being in a blizzard, but like it or not people are going to call it a blizzard. It's a completely ass backwards mindset. People are much more aware, cautious, and safe during a blizzard. However, they don't warn because they don't want the storm to be overhyped? Makes zero sense to me, absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 there is nothing we can do about the weather but its the truth that it has been pedestrian at best considering how well just about everyone to the se and sw has done.....it will likely be a long time before we get this many chances again in the winter and this year we just havent done much with them....i had resigned myself to 3 or so inches for this one and now it looks like we may not even do that but i keep hoping for a miracle and keep being called a debbie by folks who are one to two hundred pct above climo lol What comes around will go around...climo will even out over time. It has been one helluva season for the coastal plain in general though. Let 'em have it while they've got it. You know a winter will come up when its raining every storm in those same areas, and snowing deep deep winter in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trat Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 seems thr precip. is getting eaten up on the north shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's a completely ass backwards mindset. People are much more aware, cautious, and safe during a blizzard. However, they don't warn because they don't want the storm to be overhyped? Makes zero sense to me, absurd. I mean the warning should for the most part be objective. Do conditions meet criteria? I think BOS has a really good chance to hit blizzard. It's a little bootleg since the airport juts out into the water, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I personally think it's funny. Logan is more likely to verify blizzard than BVY. They just don't want to let the hype spin out of control with the largest city being in a blizzard, but like it or not people are going to call it a blizzard. It is funny how they leave BOS out of it all the time, haha. That must drive the weenies nuts. There's some odd satisfaction about being under a Blizzard Warning...really sets the mood for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Awesome radar loop...its like that SE inflow near eastern Long Island pumping that moisture inland just re-energized that band in the interior with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 About 5 mi west of 14-18".wow! Can't wait to see how the band takes shape in the next few hours..may be the hardest snow some of us have seen in a long time. Polar vortex will get his turn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Good luck guys up in the crush zone. Latest HRRR is an absolute crush job for Cape. 14-18 likely with spots closing in on close to 2' by storms end. Storm already bombing out hard. It'll be sub 990 in about an hour at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 HRRR wants to come close to tickling 960's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's funny how many people jump on an off hour NAM run. Yet if this showed a whiff it would be tossed faster than you could bat an eye. Lol, so true ride the snowiest model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Preety meh here so far. We've got a lot of snow otg atm and wouldn't be super disappointed if this one didn't produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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