ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thanks Will. Harv's map to a T. I wouldn'[t stray far from his map right now based on what I see. I'm not seieng some big push east on the regional loops...but we'll know for sure in the next 3-4 hours. I'll be out snowshoing enyoing the deep winter day in Princeton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now-cast ob here: Not included with the compact nature of this beast ... there appears to be a small omega burst approaching the eastern half of LI ... perhaps also connected with moderate burst that has grown on radar over eastern CT. This has rad trajectories that would envelope most of eastern Mass and RI, east of I-90 ish as the afternoon progresses forward. I don't believe this area is really associated with the inner workings of the developing/bombing low and what will ultimately strike SE NE later on. thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now you have me looking at HRR....never gave a crap before.... 15z out to 12 hours (system still ongoing) has a nice hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is shaping up to be a net loss for snowpack in the far inland valleys today. Good mood snows though. Hoping people who missed out with the last storm cash in tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Precip is supposed to blossom once the storm explodes around the benchmark.. its not like the only precip we get originates from NC Yeah, honestly to my very untrained eye, everything looks to be on track. I see nothing that would indicate a giant bust here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thanks Will. Harv's map to a T. I still feel pretty confident in his map, box essentially lines up with it too. In an hour maybe things will be different, but eh this really feels like a watch and see situation. Surprised at really messy model performance over the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Now-cast ob here: Not included with the compact nature of this beast ... there appears to be a small omega burst approaching the eastern half of LI ... perhaps also connected with moderate burst that has grown on radar over eastern CT. This has rad trajectories that would envelope most of eastern Mass and RI, east of I-90 ish as the afternoon progresses forward. I don't believe this area is really associated with the inner workings of the developing/bombing low and what will ultimately strike SE NE later on. thoughts ? Been watching that on Sat, out of radar range but just coming in, yea the premature calls will be in trouble if that does not crash and burn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I still feel pretty confident in his map, box essentially lines up with it too. In an hour maybe things will be different, but eh this really feels like a watch and see situation. Surprised at really messy model performance over the last week. Can someone post it I only saw last nights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdgraves Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If that thing keeps going straight-ish, Southern Maine is gonna get a nice hit, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Many people have compared this to 1/27/11 I think. Even the poster comments are similar.....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I wouldn'[t stray far from his map right now based on what I see. I'm not seieng some big push east on the regional loops...but we'll know for sure in the next 3-4 hours. I'll be out snowshoing enyoing the deep winter day in Princeton Boot east is visible swinging just under the BGM site right now. Let's see how much thump it has. Also there's that dry punch up off the Jersey coast heading into LI. Euro will settle this shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yikes from Philipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Many people have compared this to 1/27/11 I think. Even the poster comments are similar.....lol. 1/27/11 was about as crazy day forecasting as I had...some were saying that it was a clear whiff SE...even for BOS within 8 hours of the onset...others were going 12"....the 12" won that day...out to here even. I had like 12.8" or something. This is a smaller version of that storm...the cutoff will be a bit further east too. But I'm feeling fine if I'm in BOS for 6"+...out west I'm expecting advisory snows...I'll consider it lucky if we get 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The dry punch the RGEM uses to squash things is very evident on the water vapor loop and now the radar. Whether it has the same net effect we're about to figure out as it rockets up over LI and into CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 1/27/11 was about as crazy day forecasting as I had...some were saying that it was a clear whiff SE...even for BOS within 8 hours of the onset...others were going 12"....the 12" won that day...out to here even. I had like 12.8" or something. This is a smaller version of that storm...the cutoff will be a bit further east too. But I'm feeling fine if I'm in BOS for 6"+...out west I'm expecting advisory snows...I'll consider it lucky if we get 6". The NAM products I'm looking at don't even look close to verifying. RGEM is better looking to me for a se track. Still probably too far SE but at least it looks like it has more of a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The NAM products I'm looking at don't even look close to verifying. RGEM is better looking to me for a se track. Still probably too far SE but at least it looks like it has more of a clue. Which products? Up to this point they all look fine, it's the next 60-90 minutes where they diverge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is going to be a white Hurricane on the Cape, holy heck does this look impressive on WV, batten down the hatches out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is nearly identical to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 For all of the talk about short range shunting further east, 15z HRRR is wetter than 14z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is a tad east in wrn areas with 0.25 and 0.5, but identical near BOS and through Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Maybe 10 miles east with qpf delineation a such that is matches yesterday 12z pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW anyways, we'll see how it ends up doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is nearly identical to last night.Game on then. Put away the models and watch it come in. 6-9" final call here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 15z is a maul from Boston into se ma and the canal. Right around the canal intense banding signal and a bullseye of almost 14-16". Interior cape ann even makes a run @ 8-9". Basically a foot of snow anywhere from BOS SE. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 15z is a maul from Boston into se ma and the canal. Right around the canal intense banding signal and a bullseye of almost 14-16". Interior cape ann even makes a run @ 8-9". Basically a foot of snow anywhere from BOS SE. lol Regardless of which model tickled which way, I think all of them are pointing towards the canal as the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yea huge hit for eastern areas on 12z Euro...for us further west, it makes warning snows more unlikely...but we weren't look at monster totals anyway. More like the difference between 7" and 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Regardless of which model tickled which way, I think all of them are pointing towards the canal as the sweet spot. You have a couple of the SE models ticking NW. The NW models ticking SE. Nice consensus coming together. This is a great storm east of ORH though I think for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is the 850 low alligned with good easterly inflow or is it more stretched N-S . That was a key Will was alluding to last nite Wrt much precip extending back and atlantic inflow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Will how does euro's 850 low look wrt inflow off atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Scott and Will, I will preface this with the caveat that its a bit of a manifestation of some late-in-the-game frustration....but why is it that seemingly every time that the western edge is modeled out west, and north, the good banding makes it further nw than expected....but whenever its around this area: No soup. Poof. I would say the best banding was never really modeled out in ur area aside from a run of the gfs that oceanstwx posted w a graphic on it, And he mentioned he was skeptical of the gfs placement of lift so far nw of 7h warm front. This is speaking of this storm specifically. I would think best banding would tend to set up perhaps over specific areas (more often but not exclusively) do to orographic effects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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