weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Rpm beyond 9.5 hours anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol what a riot to read, lol, look real time after smoking what the Euro grows. LolSeriously, all this talk of western cutback, and look what is coming up from NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Rpm beyond 9.5 hours anyone? Through 0330Z it has about 7 for BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmcfarland99 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think BOS folks and anyone south of BOS have no real reason to worry...its those of us folk west of BOS that will sweat a 15 mile shift.And us folks along the SW Maine coast (PWM and south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Rpm beyond 9.5 hours anyone? Out to 13 hours...BOS is like 6-8 by 04z...south shore like Weymouth has 10"+....4" to 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Through 0330Z it has about 7 for BOS. Nice! Looks like it will bring us close to 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Out to 13 hours...BOS is like 6-8 by 04z...south shore like Weymouth has 10"+....4" to 495. Harvey's map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice! Looks like it will bring us close to 10.8-12" BOS imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm pretty sure cmc is going into the toity for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol what a riot to read, lol, look real time after smoking what the Euro grows. Lol If the HRRR was showing 18" for you, you'd be posting it constantly. Even it's best runs have been 2-8" NW to SE across CT and into RI. It's finally ramping up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Harvey's map. Yeah he's the best for a reason. Still at the top of his game. I was impressed with his 2/13 map. Maybe could have tightened the gradient between abotu Watertown and BOS...but I don't think anyone saw a 6" gradient in 6 miles, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is just me talking out loud but there are two scenarios IMHO right now for BOS. Scenario 1. It gets really awesome for like 2-3 hours but heaviest stuff just tickles the terminal and then moves east. Total is like 5-7" or so perhaps. Scenario 2) This would be the GFS despite the QPF...heavy banding gets into the area and it snows 2-3"/hr. Totals would approach a foot or so. This morning I felt comfortable with the 6-10...actually I liked BOX map....I think Will even mentioned it as well. These little ticks east or west are detrimental. Going above 10" for a a snowstorm lasting 8 hrs or so is not easy so you have to be confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wouldn't be surprised to see BOX trim the numbers back a bit NW of Boston. I don't see myself getting 8". That said we are in nowcast node at this point. Just have to see where the banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm pretty sure cmc is going into the toity for this one. We will know in the next 90 minutes. It had this precip screaming north and then between 1-2pm or just after 2 it starts to get shunted hard east. The differences are right away. If the stuff in SE NY starts to drop SSE in the next 90 minutes...the RGEm may have been on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If the HRRR was showing 18" for you, you'd be posting it constantly. Even it's best runs have been 2-8" NW to SE across CT and into RI. It's finally ramping up now. I am working bro. You KAKQ radar is a thing if beauty, HRRR has 6-8 for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is just me talking out loud but there are two scenarios IMHO right now for BOS. Scenario 1. It gets really awesome for like 2-3 hours but heaviest stuff just tickles the terminal and then moves east. Total is like 5-7" or so perhaps. Scenario 2) This would be the GFS despite the QPF...heavy banding gets into the area and it snows 2-3"/hr. Totals would approach a foot or so. This morning I felt comfortable with the 6-10...actually I liked BOX map....I think Will even mentioned it as well. These little ticks east or west are detrimental. Going above 10" for a a snowstorm lasting 8 hrs or so is not easy so you have to be confident. Duration is definitely a big issue for double digits. You'll need to get into the meat of it for at least 2 hours to reach that. I think BOS is probably good for a minimum of 6...the 10"+ amounts are the key there on how long they get the meat of the band. Out west, I think its mostly a high end advisory deal, though perhaps 6" can be reached to 495 or ORH if they can rip SN+ for one hour surorunded by 4-5 hours of steady 3/4 mile snow or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I am working bro. You KAKQ radar is a thing if beauty, HRRR has 6-8 for me. That stuff never makes it here, rotates out S&E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 any mets notice any now cast tendency's with the ny state Short wave and it's effect on our system...as in better or worse than we thought as of last nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some here like the Hi Res Nam. It's pretty sparse. it takes the stuff that is coming up to about LI right now...stops it cold and spins it out. IMO tons of caution flags going up, I don't buy the GFS and would be strongly considering dropping totals. Look at the radar out of OKX and then the contours to the .5...it matches very well what's lining up there now. Doesn't mean it ends up right though, but curious. Whatever the RGEM and NAM 4k are seeing it starts very early. Right or wrong. RGEM/NAM/4KM vs GF/UK...I'd lean to the first 3 given the banded nature pending the Euro. (Like the RGEM to a T) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 RPM is out far enough where the storm is basically over....BOS gets around 8 inches..maybe 9" south side. Quincy soutrhward is 10"+...6" out to Framinghamup to Andover area. 4" for ORH down to near Ginxy. 2-3" for most of the region west of that out to 91..1-2" in Berks/NW CT Not that it means ton, but for those who wanted to know what the RPM said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It is a little bothersome the mesos are so sharp and east, but the heavy hitters don't look anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Please put the shovels away I fixed that for you. New HRRR rolling in is also showing that second stuff that comes up out of the Carolinas rotates around but mainly misses. Interesting trends. Cpicks that feature coming across NY is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It is a little bothersome the mesos are so sharp and east, but the heavy hitters don't look anything like that. In a situation where the bands are going to be super intense like we all believe to be the case is the best course to ride the UK and GFS with a coarser grid? I don't think it is. I'll be surprised if the Euro isn't east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some here like the Hi Res Nam. It's pretty sparse. it takes the stuff that is coming up to about LI right now...stops it cold and spins it out. IMO tons of caution flags going up, I don't buy the GFS and would be strongly considering dropping totals. Look at the radar out of OKX and then the contours to the .5...it matches very well what's lining up there now. Doesn't mean it ends up right though, but curious. Whatever the RGEM and NAM 4k are seeing it starts very early. Right or wrong. RGEM/NAM/4KM vs GF/UK...I'd lean to the first 3 given the banded nature pending the Euro. (Like the RGEM to a T) I think you're pretty much correct, looking at the models and lining up with current obs. Wagons east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RPM is out far enough where the storm is basically over....BOS gets around 8 inches..maybe 9" south side. Quincy soutrhward is 10"+...6" out to Framinghamup to Andover area. 4" for ORH down to near Ginxy. 2-3" for most of the region west of that out to 91..1-2" in Berks/NW CT Not that it means ton, but for those who wanted to know what the RPM said. Thanks Will. Harv's map to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Precip is supposed to blossom once the storm explodes around the benchmark.. its not like the only precip we get originates from NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some here like the Hi Res Nam. It's pretty sparse. it takes the stuff that is coming up to about LI right now...stops it cold and spins it out. IMO tons of caution flags going up, I don't buy the GFS and would be strongly considering dropping totals. Look at the radar out of OKX and then the contours to the .5...it matches very well what's lining up there now. Doesn't mean it ends up right though, but curious. Whatever the RGEM and NAM 4k are seeing it starts very early. Right or wrong. RGEM/NAM/4KM vs GF/UK...I'd lean to the first 3 given the banded nature pending the Euro. (Like the RGEM to a T) NAM looks like its suffering convective feedback issues maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 My final call is 4-8" n and w of Boston out to 495, 6-10" in the city, and 10-15" over se MA. Advisory event outside of Lowell-ORH-KTOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The lack of moisture is wringing out of the clouds in a hurry here, moderate snow. Looking good for a GFS solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah east models clearly losing based on radar and current SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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