40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This just in, nobody really has a clue. Lets just watch and see at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think I have ever seen a season wreak so much havoc with modeling. Honestly. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The H7 back bent warm front is pretty darn similar from 06z. This storm is a beast with dynamics..models will wobble all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BOX expecting Cape to gust over 70. Wow..I just saw that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I just saw a cloud that was further SE than forecast, storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The only slight differences I see are more with the s/w in NY state. You guys are obsessed with the SE crap when it's almost noise. It's more nowcast time. I edited...i'm not speaking in anyones back yard. I felt all along the GFS was throwing precip away from the band too much because of potential feedback. I also said a bunch of times typically it adjusts that out AFTER convection has fired IE this run. That's what we just saw. Epic band...and much less west of it. It is finally on board with the heavily banded guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BOS expecting Cape to gust over 70. Wow..I just saw that Who tweeted that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The H7 back bent warm front is pretty darn similar from 06z. This storm is a beast with dynamics..models will wobble all over the place. The H7 back bent warm front is pretty darn similar from 06z. This storm is a beast with dynamics..models will wobble all over the place. I think this is absolutely enthralling....the whole idea of not knowing, with such high-stake implications. Unless the gradient sets up se of western Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Who tweeted that. BOX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ME Stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Mets.. can someone comment on radar to our south and the bands over Jersey and Li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I edited...i'm not speaking in anyones back yard. I felt all along the GFS was throwing precip away from the band too much because of potential feedback. I also said a bunch of times typically it adjusts that out AFTER convection has fired IE this run. That's what we just saw. Epic band...and much less west of it. It is finally on board with the heavily banded guidance. I don't disagree...but the wording makes it sound a lot more ominous than the 15 miles or so. I guess I'm just cautious when making those claims before seeing all the items at play. QPF can nudge east but when all other features are similar..it's not always true. In this case, H7 was maybe 15 miles east or so. I know it's a high stakes forecast..but I don't know if I would change things given this beast. Speaking as a forecaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is like old school. Warnings were up but y never quite knew what would happen. As a kid, warnings would fly and the young weenie I was would ride them even in dim sunshine and rare flakes..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We all agreed with that, but you are obsessing. Its not obsessing I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation 20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic I dont see the problem At all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Radar does look very nice. Anyone see the rpm now that the fix is working? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is like old school. Warnings were up but y never quite knew what would happen. As a kid, warnings would fly and the young weenie I was would ride them even in dim sunshine and rare flakes..lol. Yea, it is kind of cool. I thought this was supposed to kicking off around now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Its not obsessing I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation 20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic I dont see the problem At all We'll agree to disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Radar does look very nice. Anyone see the rpm now that the fix is working? RPM out ot 9.5 hours...has around 4 inches in BOS by then (0030z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Its not obsessing I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation 20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic I dont see the problem At all Plenty of positives with this system.IIRC the Feb 13 Blizzard was a disappointment because the stall east wasn't as long as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Its not obsessing I hear this all he time when a threat is imminent , anything non pro (more snow) is given negative connotation 20 mile moves make a big diff w this. And outside of banding , precip maybe anemic I dont see the problem At all Had it been 15mi NW, no one would have complained about the NW jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I would look at it as more that 20-30 miles means so much that it puts pressure on people forecasting...not necessarily something where we have no clue..if you understand what I mean. The east tick was definitely on my mind since yesterday..but if the GFS is right...it's still an awesome period for ern areas I think..esp near BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RPM out ot 9.5 hours...has around 4 inches in BOS by then (0030z) Wow that's encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think BOS folks and anyone south of BOS have no real reason to worry...its those of us folk west of BOS that will sweat a 15 mile shift. The difficult part about the shifts though is determining whether they are real or not. Model noise is difficult to decipher on those small scales..in aidditon to something complex on the mesoscale level like a cluster of deep convection near HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS would be in line with most people's expectations, and probably exceeding them in W Ma and W Ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Box map still looks good. Nothing wrong with it, nothing over the top, just solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS would be in line with most people's expectations, and probably exceeding them in W Ma and W Ct. Talk dirty to me! (on the fringe here in Western CT!) Not that I can complain after 15 inches combined for the last event and 6 inches in one hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Talk dirty to me! (on the fringe here in Western CT!) Not that I can complain after 15 inches combined for the last event and 6 inches in one hour.It looked like 2-4 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think BOS folks and anyone south of BOS have no real reason to worry...its those of us folk west of BOS that will sweat a 15 mile shift. The difficult part about the shifts though is determining whether they are real or not. Model noise is difficult to decipher on those small scales..in aidditon to something complex on the mesoscale level like a cluster of deep convection near HSE. I'd agree but Boston still may be right on the fence and it could wiggle either way. The GFS is less impressive across the board Had it been 15mi NW, no one would have complained about the NW jog. Exactly. It's only obsessing when it's in the wrong direction (for some) I don't disagree...but the wording makes it sound a lot more ominous than the 15 miles or so. I guess I'm just cautious when making those claims before seeing all the items at play. QPF can nudge east but when all other features are similar..it's not always true. In this case, H7 was maybe 15 miles east or so. I know it's a high stakes forecast..but I don't know if I would change things given this beast. Speaking as a forecaster. I'm pretty confident the NAM and RGEM will be more right and the GFS is still playing catchup. if I'm wrong I'm wrong but like I said last night stake in the ground time. I think the heaviest is confined further east somewhere around Rte 24/95 and points east/NE/SW with the pivot maybe being around Taunton. NW of the heaviest banding I think there will be a lot of subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol what a riot to read, lol, look real time after smoking what the Euro grows. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Cmc is barely advisory snows for BOS if that. Radar would have fall apart dramatically for that to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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