Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S. I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything. Will do you agree NAM temps are fine west of Hyannis? I think fella and I both saw an erroneous map that showed the 8h line well NW for a time. It's not on any of the other sites which show it out by chatham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gfs definitely running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S. I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything. Thats on this run Will? Crazy to have so much dissonance in now cast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's quite the gradient with the NAM. A foot coastal, while Worcester barely cashes in on an inch or two.Sharp sharp cutoff. Thankfully we are getting some early bird special snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How many times do we go thru this? Please don't focus on qpf ..Please..the low is almost right where it was at 6z..maybe even west a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 12z NAM a disaster for us in RI. Like 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Major reason im skeptical It doesn't really have that much of an effect of low track. A strong vortmax going over waters that are 70F+ will gain moisture no matter what. It's more about vort track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How low does it get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If anything NAM was tigher with QPF it seemed...not necessarily east. I don't buy an eyewall depiction of QPF from a mid latitude cyclone. Tight yes, but not 40 miles wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gfs much more expansive with qpf. It's a great run Hyannis west for coasties. East of hya seems to ds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS nudged SE too but not as bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It doesn't really have that much of an effect of low track. A strong vortmax going over waters that are 70F+ will gain moisture no matter what. It's more about vort track. Exactly, dynamics alone will wring out everything available. It's mainly to say that this won't be a QPF bomb, there is a limit to how much it will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thats on this run Will? Crazy to have so much dissonance in now cast time. Yes. I was surprised it was off by that much...but again, we don't know exactly how that will physically translate into this sytem...the convection being much furthers SW than the NAM had it would theoretically pump up the heights more ahead of the storm and produce a closer solution....if all else was equal...but in meteorology there's tons of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS loow track at 06z Sunday matches 06z run from early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You can see what's going to happen on radar..Look at the band approaching Li and the one over Jersey..Those 2 are going to consolidate into one moderate to heavy fronto band..could be semi norlun associated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How far SE of ACK is the gulfstream? i.e. those 70 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Actually I take that back for a 6 hour forecast that's a pretty good jump by the GFS. That's 3 for 4 excluding crazy uncle the 3 models that have run are all S&E with the non banded stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS looks like it's doing what it did the other day. Take an omega bomb and then incorrectly make it go poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Stop with the SE crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS loow track at 06z Sunday matches 06z run from early this morning. It's a decent bit SE at 5h Scott. Convective Feedback FTL....as suspected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Stop with the SE crap. it gets so tiring..over and over and it;s simply not true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Stop with the SE crap. It's SE with the 5h, it's se with the QPF. HPC's suspicions about feedback are proving to be true, it developed the mid level center too far NW in response to convection. Been discussed for 24 hours. At the very least it overdeveloped at 5h (compared to earlier 0z etc) and that's part of why we're seeing it back down on QPF. Back down as in away from the main band it's cut back, I'm not specifically referring to anything EAST of the main band which is still fine. My contention all along was that it was developing precip too far west because it wasn't focusing on the main band enough because of potential feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS is def SE...but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gfs qpf: 0.5 ORH to BDL and to the south coast east. 0.75 BOS to GON east. 1.0 extreme south coastal ma and lower cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's a decent bit SE at 5h Scott. Convective Feedback FTL....as suspected. The only slight differences I see are more with the s/w in NY state. You guys are obsessed with the SE crap when it's almost noise. It's more nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's SE with the 5h, it's se with the QPF. HPC's suspicions about feedback are proving to be true, it developed the mid level center too far NW in response to convection. Been discussed for 24 hours. We all agreed with that, but you are obsessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can we put models away and actually talk about the radar and science and what is actually happening since it's go time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 On cell phone. Sounds like the qpf field is tightening up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think on this event, we roll with the euro. It has ticked with guidance making this robust but has avoided wild swings. If it is anywhere close to last night, stay the course. OT but I'm starting to hate the iPad. I need to use a laptop....time for a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Stop with the SE crap.meh...they both look a little east comparing the mid level lows and mid level RH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.