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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Retyping that was a disaster.

 

Up through the 10z HRRR I thought it too was a TB.  Looked to have two swirls and missed most of us with the best banding.  The later ones that I didn't see until now were more favorable but the snow product everyone swears by is anemic.  It's not much better than the RGEM imo. It's better for sure but not a ton and isn't the huge hit of the GFS.   It brings the moisture up in two swirls/pulses and there's a break in between with the second kind of missing most.

 

I'm not a huge fan of the HRRR. This is snowfall..the dark blue is about 3" the lighter blues near Scott is 6".   The newer HRRR's are showing no more than about 8" anywhere for the HRRR fans.

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By the way ... NCEP 12z products all delayed between 1 and 4 hours. 

 

This is a good sign if you want bigger events.  We did a study up at UML that showed an almost 1::1 correlation existed between NCEP comms -related issues and the advent of events that could harm people -- nice goin' gov

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By the way ... NCEP 12z products all delayed between 1 and 4 hours. 

 

This is a good sign if you want bigger events.  We did a study up at UML that showed an almost 1::1 correlation existed between NCEP comms -related issues and the advent of events that could harm people -- nice goin' gov

I was watching MSNBC earlier and they said this happened because Chris Christie's aides shut down lanes on the George Washington Bridge 5 months ago.

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Most of the cape doesn't change to snow until a lot of qpf is lost. Eastern 2/3 of cape cod,ma.

 

NAM is really warm.  It's a bizarre solution that I really don't trust.

 

ptype algos are snow though Fella...and it looks cold enough for many

 

EDIT: if you and I are looking at the same map there's a graphical error....it's cold enough for most.

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FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S.

 

I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything.

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