Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Retyping that was a disaster. Up through the 10z HRRR I thought it too was a TB. Looked to have two swirls and missed most of us with the best banding. The later ones that I didn't see until now were more favorable but the snow product everyone swears by is anemic. It's not much better than the RGEM imo. It's better for sure but not a ton and isn't the huge hit of the GFS. It brings the moisture up in two swirls/pulses and there's a break in between with the second kind of missing most. I'm not a huge fan of the HRRR. This is snowfall..the dark blue is about 3" the lighter blues near Scott is 6". The newer HRRR's are showing no more than about 8" anywhere for the HRRR fans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Confirms what Jason up in AK posted yesterday (with the link to satellite loop of PWAT across the Atlantic). Last storm really scoured it out. That was a tremendous link by the way. I don't think many read it, but thanks for sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 By the way ... NCEP 12z products all delayed between 1 and 4 hours. This is a good sign if you want bigger events. We did a study up at UML that showed an almost 1::1 correlation existed between NCEP comms -related issues and the advent of events that could harm people -- nice goin' gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Look at that band heading north near LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like the NAM has just initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 By the way ... NCEP 12z products all delayed between 1 and 4 hours. This is a good sign if you want bigger events. We did a study up at UML that showed an almost 1::1 correlation existed between NCEP comms -related issues and the advent of events that could harm people -- nice goin' gov I was watching MSNBC earlier and they said this happened because Chris Christie's aides shut down lanes on the George Washington Bridge 5 months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like the NAM has just initialized Comms issue has been resolved, so things should start running now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM running. Looks good through hr 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What's revolutions per minute saying of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Comms issue has been resolved, so things should start running now.Just in time to approach the NAMs wheelhouse. In 12 hours it will be goodAnyway, is eastern Maine still looking at 10"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM pulled precip east as well. Still a good hit in the zones that it hit hard earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW, the GFS kept that best banding signature confined to the Cape too. Difficult forecast for sure today, our warnings could go either way for SW ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM pulled precip east as well. Still a good hit in the zones that it hit hard earlier. \Let it finish I don't see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 988 over the bm 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just in time to approach the NAMs wheelhouse. In 12 hours it will be good Anyway, is eastern Maine still looking at 10"+ No QPF worries for Downeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 \Let it finish I don't see that. It's already out. It's definitely drier west of ORH, CT etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What's revolutions per minute saying of late? NCEP delays will delay RPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Most of the cape doesn't change to snow until a lot of qpf is lost. Eastern 2/3 of cape cod,ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's already out. It's definitely drier west of ORH, CT etc. It's at hr 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's at hr 12. 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Most of the cape doesn't change to snow until a lot of qpf is lost. Eastern 2/3 of cape cod,ma. 850mb 0C is actually tickling CHH at 12z hours...that is a nuclear 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Most of the cape doesn't change to snow until a lot of qpf is lost. Eastern 2/3 of cape cod,ma. NAM is really warm. It's a bizarre solution that I really don't trust. ptype algos are snow though Fella...and it looks cold enough for many EDIT: if you and I are looking at the same map there's a graphical error....it's cold enough for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It definitely pulled east a tad with the QPF, but MSLP looked pretty darn close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Did the gfs just initialize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Cut back quite a bit. 0.75 barely kisses BOS. 2 inches canal east. As the row flies that's probably 20-30 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Did the gfs just initialize? It will be backed up because of the morning delays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW, the NAM was definitely east of reality on the convection down off HSE this run...it had the big line ENE of HSE leading up to 15z and the reality was due S. I probably couldn't tell you for sure if that maks a difference, but if it does, it would make the NAM's solution east if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That was a tremendous link by the way. I don't think many read it, but thanks for sharing.Major reason im skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's quite the gradient with the NAM. A foot coastal, while Worcester barely cashes in on an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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